LinaBlock

Open your positions, take a look yourself—are you still holding ETH?

This round of the bull market is more than halfway through; others are feasting on Solana while the lesser coins are just sipping soup. This once-great asset in your hand can’t even catch a bit of the heat now.

L2 has been hyped for two years, but what has it produced? Arbitrum, Base, OP—daily active users are tens of times that of the mainnet, and their revenue is hundreds of times more. They pay that little DA fee to the mainnet, which accounts for less than 5% of their total revenue.

It used to be Ethereum raising a son, but now the son is feasting while the father is just smelling the aroma.

What about ETFs? Grayscale has been selling for half a year, and it's about to hit rock bottom at this address. BlackRock's little holding hasn’t moved in three months. Where is the billions of dollars in institutional funds you’re waiting for? Isn’t it more appealing for them to buy US Treasuries for 4.5%? Why would they step in to pick up the pieces?

Let’s talk about developers. In 2021, six out of ten projects chose Ethereum; now it’s less than three. Base, Solana, Sui, Berachain—builders are not stupid; they know where there are users, where they can make money, and where the popularity is. They are clearer than you.

The community is tired too. Previously, upgrades were FOMO’d three months in advance, and the entire network was buzzing with EIP. Now Pectra? Do you remember what Pectra is?

It’s not that the technology doesn’t work; it’s just that everyone is really too lazy to talk.

An asset has stood on the stage for eight years, and everyone respects it, but nobody wants to stay up late for it anymore.

If you’re not shorting now, what are you waiting for?

Are you waiting for the market cap to drop to single digits?
Are you waiting for Solana's market cap to truly push it down?
Are you waiting for that guy you went all in with in 2021 to finally sell at the break-even line?

The line has been drawn for half a year.

Just keep your short positions; you don’t need to watch the market every day.

Don’t wait until it breaks down and then comment three words:

“Still shorting?”

#ETH #ShortEthereum #L2FeastingMainnetSippingSoup
#NarrativeIsOld #BuilderHasRunAway #CommunityIsTired
#这轮牛市没它什么事了
$ETH

If you're still holding LINK, you really should ask yourself: what are you waiting for?

Waiting for an official announcement from Visa? They've already cooperated to release three press releases; what about the mainnet? What about the trading volume? Where's the money?

Waiting for CCIP to explode? Who's even using this thing for cross-chain bridges now? Arbitrum has built its own bridge, and after LayerZero's airdrop, the hype has cooled down. Where are your CCIP clients?

The oracle race hasn't been the same since 2021. Pyth is feeding prices well on Solana, and the API3 project is feeding itself without needing your help. LINK is still the same LINK, but a bypass highway has been built next to the toll booth.

Let's talk about income. Have you calculated P/S? Bloomberg earns 10 billion dollars a year with a market value of 50 billion, that's 5 times. How much would LINK's toll multiply by 5 give you? Are you speechless after using the calculator?

In the last two years of sideways trading, every time it reaches that line, it's pushed back down. Is it really the bears being strong? Or is the vehicle too heavy?

Early nodes, foundations, and market makers have been holding at single-digit costs for five years. It's not that they won't sell; they're just waiting for liquidity to be sufficient to sell slowly.

Do you think sideways trading is building up power? That's because the goods haven't been fully released yet.

If you're not shorting now, what are you waiting for? One day there will be an official announcement of a "cooperation landing," a bullish candle will shoot up, and then it'll continue to decline — this script has played out three times already; are you not tired of it?

The line is drawn here.

Just hold your short positions; there's no need to watch the market.

#LINK #ShortLINK #MoreCooperationFewerLandings
#P/SCalculatedAndDontWantToSpeak
#车太重拉不动
$LINK

Chainlink is a somewhat complex coin to discuss within the community.

It's not that its technology is lacking. Cross-chain, price feeds, data streams—it's done a lot of work, and the list of partners is quite lengthy. But if you take a closer look at that list—Visa, Swift, each name is bigger than the last. So what? Has the mainnet launched? Where's the trading volume? Where's the revenue?

**Dozens of partnerships, but only a few have materialized. This isn't new in the crypto space, but with LINK, people feel a bit hesitant to call it out.**

Moreover, the oracle track isn't what it used to be in 2021.

Pyth now holds a 70% share in the Solana ecosystem, API3 acts as a first-party oracle, and their project team manages price feeds without needing to rely on you. LINK is still the same LINK, but the surrounding roads have been built all around; it doesn't have to go through your toll booth anymore.

**It's not that you're not trying; it's just that it can't keep up.**

There's also an accounting point that I've calculated, and you've probably calculated it too.

Bloomberg terminals earn $10 billion a year, with a market cap of $50 billion, giving it a 5x P/S ratio. That current revenue of LINK multiplied by 5—how much does that yield? You have an idea.

**It's not that LINK is bad; it's that the market can't support the 2021 valuation anymore.**

For the past two years, every time there's a spike, it's been pushed back down. Is it really that the bears are strong?

No. It's that the vehicle is too heavy.

Early nodes, foundations, market makers—acquired assets at single-digit costs, held for five years. It's not that they're unwilling to sell; they’re waiting for a position with liquidity to catch.

**You think that sideways movement is gathering strength, but in fact, it's waiting for buyers to gather.**

I'm not saying LINK will go to zero.

But you have to admit: a track that is no longer exclusive, revenue that can't support the market cap, and assets that have been stagnant for five years—at this position, is it a golden pit, or just halfway up the hill?

The line has been drawn for two years.

#LINK #ShortChainlink #OracleTrackCompetition
#ManyPartnershipsFewRealizations #P/SCalculated
#车太重拉不动
$LINK

No sentiment, just positions. The short logic of Dogecoin is tougher than most people think.

**First, the Beta of the MEME sector has receded.** The average daily issuance of Pump.fun has dropped by 70%, and the survival cycle of the golden dog has shrunk from 7 days to 7 hours. Retail investors are not afraid of losing; they are numb from losses. The essence of the MEME market is liquidity overflow; when the tide goes out, the first ship to run aground will definitely be the one with the largest tonnage.

**Second, the Musk factor has completely dulled.** In 2021, a tweet would pump 50%, in 2024 it pumps 10%, and now sending out ten pieces of Dog content does not even make a ripple in the charts. Marginal utility has dropped to zero; are you still waiting for Musk to make a call? It's like waiting for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in 2021.

**Third, the chip structure is reversing.** The giant whale has accumulated 1.8 billion coins over the past 18 months; why haven't they pumped after accumulating? Because it's not about going long; it's about market making. Hoarding at low prices is not to pump the price; it’s to have goods available for sale at high levels. The inventory on exchanges has hit a new low since 2020; do you think it's a reluctance to sell? The real sellers know that liquidity is insufficient, and orders cannot be filled.

**Fourth, cultural premium is depreciating.** "Your mom knows Dogecoin" is indeed a moat, but who are the new users in this bull market? Geeks playing with AI agents, gamblers engaging in dog contracts, and institutions focused on RWA compliance narratives. None of these three groups entered the market because the barber shop owner downstairs knows about it.

---

**This is not about betting on Dogecoin going to zero; it’s about betting on the mean reversion of emotional premiums.**

When MEME recedes, Musk dulls, whales stop accumulating, and cultural narratives cannot convert new buying pressure—

Fourfold factor resonance, there is only one direction.

**Just keep the short position; no need to watch the market.**

#DOGE #ShortDogecoin #MEMERecede
#MuskDull #WhalesStopAccumulating
#文化溢价折旧
$DOGE

Do not talk about faith, just look at positions. The fundamentals of Filecoin are one of the clearest short-selling logics I have seen in this market.

**First, the income model doesn't work.**

The biggest illusion in the storage sector is "enterprise-level applications." After eight years, can you tell me which Fortune 500 company has stored its core data on the Filecoin mainnet? The United Nations project is PR, Berkeley is an academic collaboration, and OpenAI is edge backup.

What about real demand? How much of the daily on-chain transaction volume is from storage orders, and how much is miners inflating their numbers?

Have you checked? I dare not look closely, fearing I won't be able to sleep after checking.

**Second, the chip structure is a permanent selling pressure.**

How many tens of thousands are unlocked every day? Miners need to pay electricity bills, repay loans, and survive. This is not market manipulation, it's survival instinct. You think it's "floating chips being cleared," but in reality, it has been cleared for three years, and the K-line is still hitting new lows.

You tell me that an asset that has continuously declined for four years is "bottom collecting"?

**The bottom is gathered, not waited for.**

**Third, the narrative is completely outdated.**

The storage sector has long been reshuffled. Arweave stores NFTs, BNB Greenfield runs applications, and even ICP is working on decentralized front ends. The "storage + computing" story of Filecoin has been told for three years, and the TVL of FVM is still lower than that of a meme coin pool.

It's not that the sector is failing; it's that the leader has fallen behind.

**Fourth, P/E is a false proposition.**

Some people calculate P/E for FIL using "protocol revenue." Have you calculated it? Is that revenue from storage orders or from inflation taxes generated by node pledges?

**Counting inflation taxes as operating cash flow is not valuation; it is accounting fraud.**

---

**So what is the essence of this trade?**

It's not about betting on FIL going to zero; it's betting on **time value going to zero**.

An asset that has continuously declined for four years, with a non-functional income model, permanent dilution of chips, and a narrative that has been eliminated by the sector, the only pricing direction is **continuous discounting**.

You don't need leverage; just hold a short position in spot. When the unlocking occurs every month and prices drop, the K-line will automatically make you money.

**The line has been drawn for four years.**

**You may not want to earn this money, but someone is willing to keep shorting from 2019 until now.**

#FIL #ShortingFilecoin #PermanentSellingPressure
#IncomeModelDoesntWork #OutdatedNarrative
#时间价值归零
$FIL

We set aside emotions and focus only on positions.

**The current fundamentals of Ethereum show a threefold divergence.**

---

**First Divergence: Revenue vs. Market Cap.**

In 2021 at the market peak, daily burn peaked at 150 million USD, with a market cap of 550 billion. Today, daily burn is less than 2 million USD, while the market cap still holds at 300 billion.

**Revenue has dropped by 98%, while the market cap has only dropped by 45%.** P/E has inflated from 20 times to 150 times, while the median for Nasdaq AI companies is 35 times.

What expectations is this premium trading?

---

**Second Divergence: L2 Prosperity vs. Mainnet Contraction.**

L2 contributes less than 5% of its total income to mainnet DA fees. Base and Arbitrum have daily active users 50 times that of the mainnet, and their revenue is 200 times that of the mainnet, while the mainnet only gets a share akin to a cup of milk tea.

**This is not expansion, but structural outsourcing.** Ethereum is degrading from a “growth asset” to a “liquidation asset.”

The market pricing for liquidation assets has never been higher than 2 times P/S. What is Ethereum's P/S now? Have you calculated it?

---

**Third Divergence: ETF Inflows vs. Price Response.**

With the launch of the BTC ETF, there was a net inflow of 12 billion in three months, with a price increase of 60%. The ETH ETF launched with a net inflow of 3.2 billion, but the price dropped by 15%.

This is not “good news being fully priced in,” but rather **structural selling pressure outweighing allocation demand**. Grayscale's ETHE holders have a cost basis of 800-1200 USD, locked for three years, and ETF approval is their only exit liquidity.

**Your counterparties are not institutions; they are old miners who bottomed out in 2019.**

---

**What is the next catalyst?**

Pectra? No one cares.
Beam Chain? Three years later.
L3? It will further divert mainnet income.

**No catalyst, no cash flow growth, no clearing of chips.**

Every bullish candle in this rebound is providing an opportunity for the 2021 trapped positions to reduce their holdings.

---

**This is not value discovery; it is valuation regression.**

We do not go long or short on emotions.

**We only short valuation premiums.**

The line has been drawn for half a year. The position is already on the truck.

#ETH #ShortEthereum #ValuationRegression
#P/E 150 times #Revenue drops 98%
#L2 tax base insufficient #ETF抛压未清
$ETH

You don't understand why Ethereum is weak this round, it's like missing the opportunity to pick up money.

**The day the ETF was approved, the whole network shouted 'Institutional bull is here.' What happened?**

Grayscale sold for half a year, selling until the address was almost bottomed out. That little holding from BlackRock hasn't moved in three months. Where is the hundred billion dollar allocation you were waiting for? Buying US Treasury bonds for 4.5% isn't appealing? Why would they pick up an asset that has seen income decline for two consecutive years?

**The L2 story has been told for two years, and the result is that mainnet revenue has dropped by 90%.**

Arbitrum, Base, OP, daily active users are dozens of times that of the mainnet, and revenue is hundreds of times that of the mainnet. The DA fees they pay to the mainnet account for less than 5% of their total revenue.

In the past, Ethereum was raising its son; now the son is having the meat, and the father is just smelling the aroma beside.

**Have you ever seen a father so pathetic?**

**Builders have all run away.**

In 2021, six out of ten projects chose Ethereum; now it's less than three. Base, Solana, Sui, Berachain—Builders are not fools; they know where the users are, where they can make money, and where the popularity is. They are clearer than you.

**The community is already half dead.**

In the past, upgrades caused FOMO three months in advance, and the whole network was brushing EIP. Now Pectra? Do you remember what Pectra is?

It's not that the technology isn't good; it's that everyone is really too lazy to talk about it.

An asset has been standing on stage for eight years; everyone respects it, but no one wants to spend money on it anymore.

---

**If you are not shorting now, what are you waiting for?**

Waiting for the market cap ratio to drop to single digits?
Waiting for Solana's market cap to step on it?
Waiting for that guy you went all in on in 2021 to finally sell at break-even?

**The line has been drawn for half a year.**
**The goods are still not sold out.**
**If you don't get on the bus now, this main decline wave will have nothing to do with you.**

**Set your short orders properly, don't wait until it breaks down and then ask in the comments:**

**'Can I still chase it?'**

#ETH #ShortEthereum #LikePickingUpMoney
#L2EatsMeatMainnetDrinksSoup #NarrativeAging
#BuildersAllRanAway #社区凉透

$ETH

Everyone knows how this round of the Solana bull market came about.

It's not DeFi, it's not DePIN, it's the Pump.fun house full of shitcoins. Launching thousands of coins a day, 99% gone in three days. The excitement is real, but the money burned in Gas fees—what is it good for?

Q1 protocol revenue was 120 million, which looks impressive. But then Q2 was directly halved. It's not that the technology regressed; it's that the gamblers ran out of money, the whales couldn't cut anymore, and half the assembly line stopped.

**A public chain relying on MEME for revenue, when MEME cools down, tell me where the next wave of growth is?**

Let's talk about developers.

The foundation releases battle reports daily, "Hackathon registrations at an all-time high" and "Ecological projects surpassing 3500." But have you ever thought about it? How many of those people actually launched the mainnet after harvesting airdrops, collecting rewards, and testing the testnet?

I’ve gone through Electric Capital's data: Solana's developer retention rate is less than 30% after 12 months. Base, Sui, Berachain, you know better than I do where the builders are flowing to.

**They don't hate Solana; they hate the single business model of 'users only gamble, not play.'**

The chip structure is even harder to discuss.

How much of the FTX legacy is left unsold? Early private placements unlocking, how many coins are dumped into the market each month? Has the cost of market maker inventory hedging been factored in?

No one dares to calculate these questions in detail because the conclusion would be politically incorrect:

**Every bullish candle of Solana in the past six months has not been new money entering; it's been finding a good price for this batch of old goods.**

Lastly, let's talk about ETFs.

The market sees the "Solana ETF" as the next starting gun. But think about it calmly:

The Bitcoin ETF is digital gold, the Ethereum ETF is the world computer, what does the Solana ETF speak of? A faster, cheaper casino?

The SEC is not foolish. An ETF without institutional allocation logic, even if approved, would just be Grayscale's second—peaking upon listing, then flowing out for three years.

---

MEME tide receding, developers fleeing, unlocking pressure, ETF narrative peaking.

Four factors, pointing downwards.

If you don't short now, will you wait for Q3 earnings to be halved again? Wait for the FTX legacy to breach the cost line? Wait for the market to finally acknowledge that "Solana is not the ETH killer, just a bull market magnifier"?

The line has been drawn for half a year.

Whether to hang short orders or let others earn the money, it's your choice.
$SOL

You look at Solana's fundamentals; I'm really not being harsh, it's just that it has narrowed its own path.

**First, the income model has collapsed.** What has supported this bull market? It's not DeFi; it's the Pump.fun pipeline of low-quality tokens. Thousands of coins are issued every day, and 99% are worth nothing after three days. It may be lively, but the money burned in Gas fees is hardly enough for anything. The protocol's income was 120 million in Q1, directly halved in Q2. Gamblers will lose everything, and the dealers will leave. Income supported by MEME has never been sustainable.

**Second, developers cannot be retained.** The foundation issues PR every day, claiming "hackathon registrations are at an all-time high." But if you ask those who have taken advantage of airdrops and claimed rewards, how many have really run the mainnet? The data from Electric Capital is public: the retention rate of Solana developers is less than 30% after 12 months. Where have Builders like Base, Sui, and Berachain gone? They are not fleeing Solana; they are escaping the singular business model of 'users only gamble and do not play.'

**Third, the chip structure is an obvious risk.** How much inventory is left in the liquidation of FTX's legacy? How many tokens are released into the market each month from early private placements? Every bullish candlestick in the past six months has not been new capital entering; it has been finding a good price for this batch of goods. Do you think sideways movement indicates a bottom? That's just the inventory not yet fully released.

**Fourth, the ETF narrative has peaked.** The Bitcoin ETF talks about digital gold, the Ethereum ETF discusses decentralized computers; what does the Solana ETF talk about? A faster, cheaper casino? The SEC isn't foolish. An ETF without institutional allocation logic, even if approved, will just be Grayscale 2.0—listing at its peak and then flowing out for three years.

---

The MEME tide is receding, Builders are flowing out, unlock pressure is mounting, and the ETF narrative is priced in.

Four factors, all in the same direction.

If you don’t short now, will you wait for Q3 earnings to continue halving? Will you wait for the FTX legacy to break the cost line?

The line has been drawn for half a year.

Whether to hang short orders, whether to let others earn money, you decide for yourself.

#SOL #ShortSOL #IncomeHalved #DeveloperOutflow
#UnlockPressure #ETFPeak #四个因子同向
$SOL

If you can't understand this wave of Solana, it's like missing a chance to pick up money.

**The MEME wave has receded, and there are no more gamblers.**

Pump.fun releases thousands of tokens a day, crashes 99% in three days, and was lively for half a year, then what? Q1 protocol revenue was 120 million, Q2 directly halved. Retail investors are scared of losses, the big players can't cut anymore, funds have withdrawn, and revenue has collapsed.

**A public chain that relies on dog coins to prop up its valuation, with gamblers gone, tell me who will take over?**

**Builders are running faster than you.**

The foundation boasts daily that "hackathon registrations have hit a new high," but how many of those who grabbed the airdrop and collected the rewards have actually launched on the mainnet? The data is clear: the 12-month developer retention rate is below 30%.

Base, Sui, Berachain, where did they go that you can't see? They are not fleeing Solana; they are fleeing the single business model of "users only gamble and don't play."

**The chip structure is too dirty to look at.**

How much of the FTX legacy is still unsold? Early private placements unlocking, how many tokens are dumped into the market each month? Every bullish candle in the past six months has been finding a good price for this batch of goods.

**Do you think sideways is building a bottom? That means the goods haven't been fully distributed.**

**ETF expectations? It's already priced in.**

Bitcoin ETF talks about digital gold, Ethereum ETF talks about decentralized computers, what does Solana ETF talk about? A faster and cheaper casino?

The SEC isn't stupid. An ETF without institutional allocation logic, even if approved, will just be the second grayscale—shining at launch, then flowing out for three years.

---

**Four factors, four same directions.**

MEME receding, developers running away, unlocking pressure, ETF narrative peaking.

If you don't short now, are you waiting for Q3 earnings to continue halving? Waiting for the FTX legacy to break the cost line? Waiting for the market to finally acknowledge that "Solana is not the ETH killer, just a bull market amplifier"?

**The line has been drawn for half a year.**
**The goods haven't been fully distributed.**
**If you don't get on the bus now, this main decline wave will have nothing to do with you.**

**Set your short orders, don't wait until it breaks and then ask in the comments: **

**"Can I still chase it?"**

#SOL #ShortSOL #LikePickingUpMoney
#MEMEReceding #DevelopersRunningAway #UnlockingPressure
#ETFExpectationPeaking #这钱你不想赚有人想赚

$SOL

When not talking about K-lines, let's discuss the fundamentals of Solana—three core narratives have completely collapsed.

**First, the MEME tide has receded, and income has plummeted.**

What has supported Solana during this bull market? It's not DeFi, it's not DePIN, it's the room full of meme coins from Pump.fun. Thousands of coins are issued daily, and 99% hit zero within three days. It's indeed lively, but the money burned in gas fees—what can it achieve?

In Q1, protocol revenue was 120 million, but it directly halved in Q2. It's not a technical issue; the gamblers have left, and the big players can't control it anymore. A public chain that relies on taking a cut from the casino for valuation—the casino has no one left; where's the next round of growth?

**Second, developers can't be retained.**

The foundation constantly shouts, "The hackathon registration is at an all-time high," but have you asked these people how many of them have gone live on the mainnet after grabbing airdrops and claiming prizes?

The data doesn’t lie: Solana's developer retention rate is less than 30% after 12 months. Where have the builders gone? Base, Sui, Berachain. They’re not fleeing Solana; they’re escaping the single business model of "users only gamble and don’t play."

**Third, the chip structure is extremely dirty.**

How much of the FTX legacy is still unliquidated? Early private placements unlocking—how many coins are dumped into the market each month? Every bullish candle over the past six months has been about finding a good price for this batch of goods.

**Fourth, ETF expectations have been overly priced.**

Bitcoin ETF talks about digital gold, Ethereum ETF discusses decentralized computers, what does Solana ETF talk about? A faster and cheaper casino?

The SEC isn’t foolish. An ETF without institutional allocation logic, even if approved, will be just like Grayscale—glorious at launch, then flowing out for three years.

---

The MEME tide recedes, developers flee, unlocking pressures mount, ETF narratives are priced in.

Four factors, all in the same direction.

If you don't short now, will you wait for Q3 earnings to continue halving? Will you wait for the FTX legacy to break through the cost line?

The line has been drawn for half a year.

Will you hang a short position or let others make money? You decide.

#SOL #ShortSOL #MEMETideRecedes #DeveloperLoss
#UnlockingPressure #ETF预期见顶
$SOL

Open the 4-hour chart of SOL, see for yourself, don’t bring faith.

**Head and shoulders top, has already completed.**

Left shoulder at the end of March, head at the beginning of April, right shoulder just completed this week. Draw the neck line down, the retracement didn’t even touch it, and directly softened. This is not a wash, but the bulls have no strength to push the price back above the neck line.

**MACD: 4-hour top divergence + death cross opening.**

The price has made lower highs, but the red bars of MACD are getting shorter. The death cross officially opened in the early hours today, the first green bar has increased in volume — this is an acceleration signal, not a stop-loss signal.

**RSI: Breaks below the upward trend line.**

For the past two weeks, it has been lingering along a 45-degree support line, and today this 4-hour line directly broke through, closing below. RSI 44, 20 points away from the oversold area, below is a vacuum zone.

**Moving Averages: Pressed hard by the 30-day line.**

In the past 72 hours, it tried to break above the 30-day line three times, and was pushed back three times. Now the K-line has dropped below EMA120 — the bull-bear dividing line on the 4-hour level, once broken, it’s truly broken.

**Volume: Increased on the decline, decreased on the rebound.**

This wave of decline, the trading volume is 2.3 times the average of the past 4 hours. What about those few rebound candlesticks yesterday? Decreased volume, decreased volume, and further decreased volume. Sellers are queuing, buyers are watching — this is not divergence, it’s a one-sided retreat.

**Open Interest: Decreased by 12% in the past 6 hours.**

The bulls haven’t been liquidated, they are actively closing positions. At this position, big players are not holding on, they are running.

---

**Six indicators, all pointing in the same direction.**

Head and shoulders top + MACD death cross + RSI breaking position + moving average suppression + volume-price divergence + decreasing open interest —

When was the last time you saw six indicators at the 4-hour level all pointing in one direction, what market was it?

April 2024, SOL dropped from 200 to 120.

**History will not simply repeat, but human nature has never changed.**

---

What are you waiting for if you are not shorting now?

Waiting for RSI to fall below 30 before you chase?
Waiting for the K-line to break below the previous low before you place an order?
Waiting for your friend who chased high on SOL in 2024 to finally cut losses at the break-even line?

**The lines are drawn.**
**The signals are clear.**
**Whether to short or not, whether to let others make money —**

**You decide.**

Don’t wait until it breaks down, then ask in the comments: can I still chase the short?

#SOL #ShortSOL #4HourHeadAndShoulders #MACDDeathCross
#RSIBreakingPosition #MovingAverageSuppression #VolumePriceDivergence

$SOL

When you open any K-line chart, the answer is the same: the money is gone.

It's not that faith is gone, but real money is retreating.

The Federal Reserve has turned off the tap for nearly two years. Interest rates have been pushed from last year to this year, and from this year to next year. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield is still above 4%, and risk-free assets are earning 4.5% a year. Why would institutions rush into a place that has no cash flow, cannot be traded on weekends, and where regulators can turn hostile at any moment?

When the ETF was approved, the whole internet shouted, "The institutional bull is here." What happened? Grayscale has been selling for half a year, selling until the address is nearing the bottom. BlackRock's holdings have not changed for three months. What about your pension funds and sovereign funds? They are still going through compliance processes, the first step is "can buy," the second step is "when to buy," and the third step is "how much to buy." The biggest misjudgment in this bull market is treating "opening an account" as "depositing funds."

There are no new stories on-chain either. In 2021, we talked about DeFi, with Uniswap and Aave, real users, real income. In 2024, we talked about inscriptions, and it got cold in three months. In 2025, we will talk about AI Agents; how many are still alive? The last round was supported by applications, and this round is waiting for valuations to be saved by applications. Applications have not come, so valuations can only search downwards.

The most critical issue is that people in the market are leaving. The BTC stock on exchanges has dropped for three years, and the stablecoin market cap has not increased. Those selling coins have not kept the money in the market waiting to buy the dip. They have truly left. The remaining people are either playing dead or waiting to reduce their positions on a rebound.

Without new influx, the existing supply is still depleting.

The endless decline is not because projects have failed, but because pricing power has changed hands. Previously, it was speculative pricing, with strong gambling instincts, FOMOing regardless of valuations. Now it is balance sheet pricing, where institutions calculate risk-free rates, opportunity costs, and liquidity discounts.

Calculating it all, the current price is still not cheap enough.

Wait for the day when U.S. Treasury yields drop below 3%, and for the next phenomenal application to emerge on-chain, the money will come back.

But not today.

Today, there is only one task: survive and wait for the water to come.
$ETH $BTC

You understand, this round of the bull market has nothing to do with it.

**The ETF approval is the brightest moment, and everything after is downhill.**

Grayscale has been selling for half a year, selling until the address is almost at the bottom. BlackRock's small holding hasn't moved in three months. Where is the hundred billion dollar allocation fund you were waiting for? Isn't it more appealing to buy US Treasuries for 4.5%? Why would you want to pick up an asset that has seen two years of declining income?

**L2 is not a son; it is a creditor.**

Arbitrum, Base, OP, daily active users are dozens of times that of the mainnet, and revenue is hundreds of times that of the mainnet. They pay that little DA fee to the mainnet, which accounts for less than 5% of their total revenue.

In the past, Ethereum raised a son, but now the son is eating meat while the father is left sniffing around.

**Have you ever seen a father so helpless?**

**All the builders have run away.**

In 2021, six out of ten projects chose Ethereum; now there are fewer than three. Base, Solana, Sui, Berachain—builders are not foolish; they know where the users are, where money can be made, and where popularity lies; they are clearer than you.

**The community is already half dead.**

In the past, upgrades were FOMO three months in advance, with the whole network brushing EIP. Now Pectra? Do you remember what Pectra is?

It's not that the technology is lacking; it's that everyone is really too lazy to talk about it.

An asset has stood on the stage for eight years; everyone respects it, but no one wants to spend money on it anymore.

---

**What are you waiting for if you’re not shorting now?**

Waiting for the market cap ratio to drop to single digits?
Waiting for Solana's market cap to step on it?
Waiting for that guy you went all in on in 2021 to finally cut losses at the break-even line?

**The line has been drawn for half a year.**
**The goods are still not sold out.**
**If you don’t get on board now, this wave of main decline has nothing to do with you anymore.**

**Set your short orders; don’t wait until it breaks and then ask in the comments:**

**“Can I still chase it?”**

#ETH #ShortEthereum #L2Bleeding #NarrativeDeath
#BuildersRanAway #CommunityIsCold
#这轮牛市没它什么事了
$ETH

You look at Ethereum, let’s not talk about those old sayings like "digital oil" and "world computer".

**The day the ETF was approved, the whole network shouted, "Institutional bull is here." And then?**

Grayscale sold for half a year, selling until the address was nearly bottomed out. BlackRock's little holdings haven't moved in three months. Where's the hundred billion dollars in allocation you were waiting for? Isn’t it nice to buy US Treasuries for 4.5%? Why should they pick up an asset whose income has been declining for two years?

**The L2 story has been told for two years, and the result is that mainnet revenue has dropped by 90%.**

Arbitrum, Base, OP, daily active users are dozens of times that of Ethereum mainnet, and revenue is hundreds of times that of the mainnet. They pay that little DA fee to the mainnet, accounting for less than 5% of their total revenue.

In the past, Ethereum was raising a son; now the son is eating meat, while the father is beside him drinking soup, even praising the son for having a good appetite.

**Have you ever seen a father being this humble?**

**Developers are also leaving.**

In 2021, six out of ten new projects chose Ethereum as their first choice, now there are less than three. Base, Solana, Sui, Berachain—Builders aren’t stupid; they know where the users are, where they can make money, and where the popularity is. They are clearer than you.

**The community is also tired.**

In the past, upgrades would trigger FOMO three months in advance, with the whole network buzzing about EIP. Now Pectra? Do you remember what Pectra is?

It’s not that the technology is lacking; it’s that everyone really can’t get excited anymore.

An asset has been standing on the stage for eight years; everyone respects it, but no one wants to stay up for it anymore.

---

**If you’re not shorting now, what are you waiting for?**

Waiting for the market cap percentage to drop to single digits?
Waiting for Solana’s market cap to truly surpass Ethereum?
Waiting for that guy you went all in on in 2021 to finally cut losses at the break-even line?

**The line has been drawn for half a year.**

**Whether to place a short order or not, whether to let others make money, you decide yourself.**

Don’t wait until it breaks down, and then leave three words in the comments:

**"Can I still short?"**

#ETH #ShortEthereum #L2Bleeding #NarrativeAging
#DeveloperExodus #ETFBelowExpectations
#这轮牛市的主角不是它
$ETH

Look at Bitcoin, let's not talk about those fantasies.

The US stock market has already collapsed. CPI exceeded expectations, interest rate cuts pushed from June to September, then from September to November, and now the market is directly pricing in next year. The two-year US Treasury yield has reached 4.3%, and the dollar index is at 105.

**When liquidity retreats, all assets are in the same bathtub. The US stock market is closest to the faucet, while the crypto market is at the farthest drainage point.** When the faucet is turned off, the water level in the bathtub drops together, and no one can escape.

Take another look at Bitcoin itself.

On the day the ETF was approved, the whole network shouted, "Institutional bull has arrived." What happened? Grayscale sold for half a year, selling to the point where their addresses are almost empty. BlackRock's holdings haven't moved in three months.

Where's the hundred billion dollars in wealth management funds you were waiting for? Isn't it more appealing to buy US Treasuries for 4.5%? Why would they come to take over?

**This halving thing has been talked about for four sessions, and the audience has already become desensitized.**

The price of coins is still three thousand dollars lower than on the day of the halving; this four-year curse has really been broken this time. The next narrative that can be speculated on will be in 2028; what will you use to keep people engaged in these three years?

On-chain daily active users have returned to 2017, inscriptions have cooled, and RGB is not being used. An asset without applications, new users, or income is not consolidating for strength; it's a flatline on an electrocardiogram.

The miner cost line has been breached, and listed companies are starting to disclose reductions. You think it's diamond hands? They just haven't released their annual report yet.

---

**I'm not saying Bitcoin will go to zero.**

But you have to admit one thing: the protagonist of this bull market is not it.

Money has gone to Solana, to AI Agents, to that dog your mom knows. It just hasn't come into your hands.

What are you waiting for if you aren't shorting now?

Waiting for the Federal Reserve to suddenly cut interest rates?
Waiting for the ETF to suddenly start net inflows?
Waiting for your friends who bought high in 2021 to finally cut their losses at the break-even line?

**The line has been drawn for half a year.**

**Whether to hang a short order, whether to let others make money, you choose.**

Don't wait until it breaks down and then ask in the comments: Can I still short?
$BTC

Do you see Bitcoin's candlestick? Do I need to say more?

The US stock market has already collapsed. CPI exceeded expectations, and the interest rate cut has been pushed to the end of the year, with the two-year US Treasury yield soaring to 4.3%. The first cut of liquidity withdrawal always strikes the neck of risk assets; the crypto space has never been a safe-haven asset; it’s like the Nasdaq with three times leverage.

Now look at Bitcoin itself.

**The ETF approval marks a historical peak; the institutions that needed to enter have already done so.** Grayscale has been selling for half a year, and the assets haven't cleared out yet. BlackRock's holdings haven’t moved in three months. Are you waiting for the tens of trillions of wealth management funds? Isn’t it more appealing for them to buy US Treasuries for a 4.5% return? Why would they step in?

**The halving narrative has completely collapsed.** The price of coins is even lower than that day during the fourth halving. The curse that happens once every four years has finally been exposed; the next potential topic for speculation won’t come until 2028. In these three years, what do you have to retain people?

**On-chain data has proven: there are no newcomers.** Daily active addresses have returned to 2017 levels, inscriptions are cold, and RGB is unused. An asset without applications, income, or innovation, how can it support a trillion-dollar market cap?

**The miner cost line has been breached.** Public companies are starting to disclose share reductions. You think they are diamond hands; they just haven't released their annual reports yet.

---

**What are you waiting for if you’re not shorting now?**

Waiting for the Federal Reserve to suddenly cut rates?
Waiting for the ETF to suddenly see net inflows?
Waiting for your friend who chased highs in 2021 to finally break even?

**By then, the candlestick will already be in a different position.**

**The line has been drawn for half a year.**
**Whether to hang a short position, whether to let others make money, you decide.**

**Don’t wait until it breaks down and then ask in the comments: can I still short?**

#BTC #ShortBitcoin #ETFGoodNewsFullyReleased #HalvingIneffective
#MinersSurrender #InstitutionsRetreat #LiquidityWithdrawal
$BTC

The decline in the US stock market wasn't unexpected.

CPI exceeded expectations, and interest rate cut expectations have been pushed from June to September, and from September to November. The two-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.3%, and the dollar index surged back to 105.

**The first cut of liquidity contraction always strikes at the neck of risk assets.**

Can the cryptocurrency market avoid it? No, it cannot.

But you need to see clearly: did the US stock market crash, and did the cryptocurrency market crash alongside it, or did it crash even faster?

**The answer is: it crashed faster.**

Because the cryptocurrency market has no dividends, no buybacks, and no operating cash flow. The only narrative supporting the price is “digital gold” and “the future casino.” When the risk-free yield on US Treasuries reaches 4.5%, why would institutions hold onto an asset that cannot be traded over a weekend and could be subject to sudden regulatory changes?

**Money will first run from the most vulnerable places.**

Altcoins are the first wave, ETH is the second wave, and BTC will follow with a decline.

This is not a curse; it is the standard path of liquidity retreat. It played out in 2022, and it will only play out faster in 2026—because leverage is higher than it was then, and more people are exiting than before.

---

Take a look at the contract positions now.

BTC hasn’t dropped much, and the funding rate is still positive. What does this indicate?

**The bulls are not dead. They are still waiting for a “V reversal.”**

They are waiting for interest rate cut expectations to revert, for Powell to adopt a dovish stance, and for the US stock market to reverse and take the cryptocurrency market flying with it.

But they haven’t considered one thing:

**When liquidity retreats, all assets are in the same bathtub. The US stock market is closest to the faucet, while the cryptocurrency market is at the farthest drain.**

When the faucet is turned off, the water level in the bathtub will drop together. It’s not a matter of who crashes first; everyone has to spit out what they gained earlier.

---

What you need to do now is not to panic and cut your losses.

It’s to think clearly:

**Can the positions you hold withstand this period of declining water levels?**

If the answer is uncertain, then today’s decline is the market giving you your last escape window.

Don’t wait for the US stock market to rebound tomorrow and then think, “It’s okay now.”

Liquidity retreat will not only happen for one day.

#LiquidityRetreat #USStockMarketCrash #CryptoMarketDecline
#RiskFreeYield4.5%#你还拿着什么
$BTC $ETH

Liquidity isn't gone, it's just changed its way of life.

Where was liquidity before? In the large accounts of CEX, in the dog pools of DEX, in the contracts of hundredfold coins that doubled every day. That was hot money, leverage, the casino money of getting richer at midnight and poorer by dawn.

And now?

**The total market value of stablecoins has reached an all-time high.** USDT + USDC have exceeded 160 billion dollars, more than the peak of the bull market in 2021.

Money hasn't left. Money is sleeping in cold wallets.

---

**Retail investors are out of money, but institutions are just entering.**

It has been less than two years since the Bitcoin ETF was approved, and pension funds, family offices, and endowment funds are still going through the entry process. This isn't money rushing in to grab the shares; it’s money that is allocated regularly each month, rebalanced once a year, and not concerned with K-lines.

Slow, but heavy.

**Before it was speculators setting prices, now it’s balance sheet pricing.**

---

**There’s no money on-chain, but infrastructure has money.**

In 2021, financing was 'issue a white paper to get 50 million', in 2024 it is 'compliance custodial Series A 8 million'. Previously, money was sprinkled by project parties to inflate volumes; now money goes to law firms, audits, and custodians to pay protection fees.

Not fun, but it can survive.

---

**So where do we go from here?**

**First, accept the era of slow money.**

The story of hundredfold coins is over; the next cycle is a marathon. Reduce your positions, lengthen the cycle, and don’t go against the Federal Reserve.

**Second, distinguish between 'no liquidity' and 'no buyers'.**

Quality assets just lack someone to pump them, not that no one wants them. ETH/BTC dropping to 0.028 is not institutions unloading; it's institutions waiting for a cheaper price. If you have Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana of that level, you won’t die.

**Third, don’t fall in love with narratives.**

Last round it was DeFi, this round it’s AI Agent, and the next round, who knows what it will be. You can choose not to chase, but don’t cling to old stories waiting for someone to come back and pick you up.

---

Liquidity hasn’t died.

What has died is the era of picking up money casually.

That wasn’t meant to survive until now.
$BTC $ETH $BNB

Can you honestly say that holding ETH for the past six months has allowed you to sleep soundly?

In the past, when someone asked you what to buy, you would immediately say Ethereum. Now when someone asks you, you pause and say, “I also bought a bit of Solana.”

The word “also” is the biggest problem with Ethereum.

L2 has been hyped for two years, Arbitrum, Base, OP, with daily active users dozens of times that of the mainnet, and revenues hundreds of times that of the mainnet. So what? The tiny amount of DA fees they pay to the mainnet accounts for less than 5% of their total revenue. The remaining 95% stays in their own pockets.

Ethereum has broken itself down into a settlement layer and outsourced execution. What’s the result? The mainnet has become merely a transaction processor, with all the money being earned by the “sons.”

This isn’t scaling; it’s just trimming itself down.

Don’t even get me started on ETFs. Grayscale has been selling for half a year, running low on addresses. BlackRock’s small holdings can’t even support a decent hedge fund.

Institutions aren’t buying; it’s not that they don’t recognize Ethereum, it’s that they’ve done the math—revenues have fallen for two consecutive years, with no buybacks and no dividends. Tell me, what’s the justification for valuation?

Developers are also leaving. In 2021, six out of ten new projects chose Ethereum; now there are less than three left. Base, Solana, Sui, Berachain—builders aren’t foolish; they know where the users are, where they can make money, and where the popularity lies.

The community is tired too. In the past, upgrades would flood the network three months in advance; now Pectra? Do you even remember what Pectra is?

It’s not that the technology isn’t good; it’s just that people really can’t get excited anymore. Something has stood on stage for eight years; everyone respects it, but no one wants to stay up all night for it anymore.

If you don’t sell now, what are you waiting for?

Are you waiting for the market cap percentage to drop to single digits? Waiting for Solana to truly surpass it? Waiting for that guy you went all in on in 2021 to finally break even and sell at a loss?

Your position is yours, and your money is yours.

Don’t wait until the K-line really breaks down and then come to the comments asking those three words:

“Can it still short?”

#ETH #ShortEthereum #L2Bleeding #NarrativeIsOld
#BuildersRunFasterThanYou
$ETH