The decline in the US stock market wasn't unexpected.
CPI exceeded expectations, and interest rate cut expectations have been pushed from June to September, and from September to November. The two-year US Treasury yield surged to 4.3%, and the dollar index surged back to 105.
**The first cut of liquidity contraction always strikes at the neck of risk assets.**
Can the cryptocurrency market avoid it? No, it cannot.
But you need to see clearly: did the US stock market crash, and did the cryptocurrency market crash alongside it, or did it crash even faster?
**The answer is: it crashed faster.**
Because the cryptocurrency market has no dividends, no buybacks, and no operating cash flow. The only narrative supporting the price is “digital gold” and “the future casino.” When the risk-free yield on US Treasuries reaches 4.5%, why would institutions hold onto an asset that cannot be traded over a weekend and could be subject to sudden regulatory changes?
**Money will first run from the most vulnerable places.**
Altcoins are the first wave, ETH is the second wave, and BTC will follow with a decline.
This is not a curse; it is the standard path of liquidity retreat. It played out in 2022, and it will only play out faster in 2026—because leverage is higher than it was then, and more people are exiting than before.
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Take a look at the contract positions now.
BTC hasn’t dropped much, and the funding rate is still positive. What does this indicate?
**The bulls are not dead. They are still waiting for a “V reversal.”**
They are waiting for interest rate cut expectations to revert, for Powell to adopt a dovish stance, and for the US stock market to reverse and take the cryptocurrency market flying with it.
But they haven’t considered one thing:
**When liquidity retreats, all assets are in the same bathtub. The US stock market is closest to the faucet, while the cryptocurrency market is at the farthest drain.**
When the faucet is turned off, the water level in the bathtub will drop together. It’s not a matter of who crashes first; everyone has to spit out what they gained earlier.
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What you need to do now is not to panic and cut your losses.
It’s to think clearly:
**Can the positions you hold withstand this period of declining water levels?**
If the answer is uncertain, then today’s decline is the market giving you your last escape window.
Don’t wait for the US stock market to rebound tomorrow and then think, “It’s okay now.”
Liquidity retreat will not only happen for one day.
#LiquidityRetreat #USStockMarketCrash #CryptoMarketDecline
#RiskFreeYield4.5%#你还拿着什么