When you open any K-line chart, the answer is the same: the money is gone.
It's not that faith is gone, but real money is retreating.
The Federal Reserve has turned off the tap for nearly two years. Interest rates have been pushed from last year to this year, and from this year to next year. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield is still above 4%, and risk-free assets are earning 4.5% a year. Why would institutions rush into a place that has no cash flow, cannot be traded on weekends, and where regulators can turn hostile at any moment?
When the ETF was approved, the whole internet shouted, "The institutional bull is here." What happened? Grayscale has been selling for half a year, selling until the address is nearing the bottom. BlackRock's holdings have not changed for three months. What about your pension funds and sovereign funds? They are still going through compliance processes, the first step is "can buy," the second step is "when to buy," and the third step is "how much to buy." The biggest misjudgment in this bull market is treating "opening an account" as "depositing funds."
There are no new stories on-chain either. In 2021, we talked about DeFi, with Uniswap and Aave, real users, real income. In 2024, we talked about inscriptions, and it got cold in three months. In 2025, we will talk about AI Agents; how many are still alive? The last round was supported by applications, and this round is waiting for valuations to be saved by applications. Applications have not come, so valuations can only search downwards.
The most critical issue is that people in the market are leaving. The BTC stock on exchanges has dropped for three years, and the stablecoin market cap has not increased. Those selling coins have not kept the money in the market waiting to buy the dip. They have truly left. The remaining people are either playing dead or waiting to reduce their positions on a rebound.
Without new influx, the existing supply is still depleting.
The endless decline is not because projects have failed, but because pricing power has changed hands. Previously, it was speculative pricing, with strong gambling instincts, FOMOing regardless of valuations. Now it is balance sheet pricing, where institutions calculate risk-free rates, opportunity costs, and liquidity discounts.
Calculating it all, the current price is still not cheap enough.
Wait for the day when U.S. Treasury yields drop below 3%, and for the next phenomenal application to emerge on-chain, the money will come back.
But not today.
Today, there is only one task: survive and wait for the water to come.