We set aside emotions and focus only on positions.
**The current fundamentals of Ethereum show a threefold divergence.**
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**First Divergence: Revenue vs. Market Cap.**
In 2021 at the market peak, daily burn peaked at 150 million USD, with a market cap of 550 billion. Today, daily burn is less than 2 million USD, while the market cap still holds at 300 billion.
**Revenue has dropped by 98%, while the market cap has only dropped by 45%.** P/E has inflated from 20 times to 150 times, while the median for Nasdaq AI companies is 35 times.
What expectations is this premium trading?
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**Second Divergence: L2 Prosperity vs. Mainnet Contraction.**
L2 contributes less than 5% of its total income to mainnet DA fees. Base and Arbitrum have daily active users 50 times that of the mainnet, and their revenue is 200 times that of the mainnet, while the mainnet only gets a share akin to a cup of milk tea.
**This is not expansion, but structural outsourcing.** Ethereum is degrading from a “growth asset” to a “liquidation asset.”
The market pricing for liquidation assets has never been higher than 2 times P/S. What is Ethereum's P/S now? Have you calculated it?
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**Third Divergence: ETF Inflows vs. Price Response.**
With the launch of the BTC ETF, there was a net inflow of 12 billion in three months, with a price increase of 60%. The ETH ETF launched with a net inflow of 3.2 billion, but the price dropped by 15%.
This is not “good news being fully priced in,” but rather **structural selling pressure outweighing allocation demand**. Grayscale's ETHE holders have a cost basis of 800-1200 USD, locked for three years, and ETF approval is their only exit liquidity.
**Your counterparties are not institutions; they are old miners who bottomed out in 2019.**
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**What is the next catalyst?**
Pectra? No one cares.
Beam Chain? Three years later.
L3? It will further divert mainnet income.
**No catalyst, no cash flow growth, no clearing of chips.**
Every bullish candle in this rebound is providing an opportunity for the 2021 trapped positions to reduce their holdings.
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**This is not value discovery; it is valuation regression.**
We do not go long or short on emotions.
**We only short valuation premiums.**
The line has been drawn for half a year. The position is already on the truck.
#ETH #ShortEthereum #ValuationRegression
#P/E 150 times #Revenue drops 98%
#L2 tax base insufficient #ETF抛压未清