Look at Bitcoin, let's not talk about those fantasies.
The US stock market has already collapsed. CPI exceeded expectations, interest rate cuts pushed from June to September, then from September to November, and now the market is directly pricing in next year. The two-year US Treasury yield has reached 4.3%, and the dollar index is at 105.
**When liquidity retreats, all assets are in the same bathtub. The US stock market is closest to the faucet, while the crypto market is at the farthest drainage point.** When the faucet is turned off, the water level in the bathtub drops together, and no one can escape.
Take another look at Bitcoin itself.
On the day the ETF was approved, the whole network shouted, "Institutional bull has arrived." What happened? Grayscale sold for half a year, selling to the point where their addresses are almost empty. BlackRock's holdings haven't moved in three months.
Where's the hundred billion dollars in wealth management funds you were waiting for? Isn't it more appealing to buy US Treasuries for 4.5%? Why would they come to take over?
**This halving thing has been talked about for four sessions, and the audience has already become desensitized.**
The price of coins is still three thousand dollars lower than on the day of the halving; this four-year curse has really been broken this time. The next narrative that can be speculated on will be in 2028; what will you use to keep people engaged in these three years?
On-chain daily active users have returned to 2017, inscriptions have cooled, and RGB is not being used. An asset without applications, new users, or income is not consolidating for strength; it's a flatline on an electrocardiogram.
The miner cost line has been breached, and listed companies are starting to disclose reductions. You think it's diamond hands? They just haven't released their annual report yet.
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**I'm not saying Bitcoin will go to zero.**
But you have to admit one thing: the protagonist of this bull market is not it.
Money has gone to Solana, to AI Agents, to that dog your mom knows. It just hasn't come into your hands.
What are you waiting for if you aren't shorting now?
Waiting for the Federal Reserve to suddenly cut interest rates?
Waiting for the ETF to suddenly start net inflows?
Waiting for your friends who bought high in 2021 to finally cut their losses at the break-even line?
**The line has been drawn for half a year.**
**Whether to hang a short order, whether to let others make money, you choose.**
Don't wait until it breaks down and then ask in the comments: Can I still short?