No sentiment, just positions. The short logic of Dogecoin is tougher than most people think.
**First, the Beta of the MEME sector has receded.** The average daily issuance of Pump.fun has dropped by 70%, and the survival cycle of the golden dog has shrunk from 7 days to 7 hours. Retail investors are not afraid of losing; they are numb from losses. The essence of the MEME market is liquidity overflow; when the tide goes out, the first ship to run aground will definitely be the one with the largest tonnage.
**Second, the Musk factor has completely dulled.** In 2021, a tweet would pump 50%, in 2024 it pumps 10%, and now sending out ten pieces of Dog content does not even make a ripple in the charts. Marginal utility has dropped to zero; are you still waiting for Musk to make a call? It's like waiting for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates in 2021.
**Third, the chip structure is reversing.** The giant whale has accumulated 1.8 billion coins over the past 18 months; why haven't they pumped after accumulating? Because it's not about going long; it's about market making. Hoarding at low prices is not to pump the price; it’s to have goods available for sale at high levels. The inventory on exchanges has hit a new low since 2020; do you think it's a reluctance to sell? The real sellers know that liquidity is insufficient, and orders cannot be filled.
**Fourth, cultural premium is depreciating.** "Your mom knows Dogecoin" is indeed a moat, but who are the new users in this bull market? Geeks playing with AI agents, gamblers engaging in dog contracts, and institutions focused on RWA compliance narratives. None of these three groups entered the market because the barber shop owner downstairs knows about it.
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**This is not about betting on Dogecoin going to zero; it’s about betting on the mean reversion of emotional premiums.**
When MEME recedes, Musk dulls, whales stop accumulating, and cultural narratives cannot convert new buying pressure—
Fourfold factor resonance, there is only one direction.
**Just keep the short position; no need to watch the market.**
#DOGE #ShortDogecoin #MEMERecede
#MuskDull #WhalesStopAccumulating