Do not talk about faith, just look at positions. The fundamentals of Filecoin are one of the clearest short-selling logics I have seen in this market.
**First, the income model doesn't work.**
The biggest illusion in the storage sector is "enterprise-level applications." After eight years, can you tell me which Fortune 500 company has stored its core data on the Filecoin mainnet? The United Nations project is PR, Berkeley is an academic collaboration, and OpenAI is edge backup.
What about real demand? How much of the daily on-chain transaction volume is from storage orders, and how much is miners inflating their numbers?
Have you checked? I dare not look closely, fearing I won't be able to sleep after checking.
**Second, the chip structure is a permanent selling pressure.**
How many tens of thousands are unlocked every day? Miners need to pay electricity bills, repay loans, and survive. This is not market manipulation, it's survival instinct. You think it's "floating chips being cleared," but in reality, it has been cleared for three years, and the K-line is still hitting new lows.
You tell me that an asset that has continuously declined for four years is "bottom collecting"?
**The bottom is gathered, not waited for.**
**Third, the narrative is completely outdated.**
The storage sector has long been reshuffled. Arweave stores NFTs, BNB Greenfield runs applications, and even ICP is working on decentralized front ends. The "storage + computing" story of Filecoin has been told for three years, and the TVL of FVM is still lower than that of a meme coin pool.
It's not that the sector is failing; it's that the leader has fallen behind.
**Fourth, P/E is a false proposition.**
Some people calculate P/E for FIL using "protocol revenue." Have you calculated it? Is that revenue from storage orders or from inflation taxes generated by node pledges?
**Counting inflation taxes as operating cash flow is not valuation; it is accounting fraud.**
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**So what is the essence of this trade?**
It's not about betting on FIL going to zero; it's betting on **time value going to zero**.
An asset that has continuously declined for four years, with a non-functional income model, permanent dilution of chips, and a narrative that has been eliminated by the sector, the only pricing direction is **continuous discounting**.
You don't need leverage; just hold a short position in spot. When the unlocking occurs every month and prices drop, the K-line will automatically make you money.
**The line has been drawn for four years.**
**You may not want to earn this money, but someone is willing to keep shorting from 2019 until now.**
#FIL #ShortingFilecoin #PermanentSellingPressure
#IncomeModelDoesntWork #OutdatedNarrative