Do you see Bitcoin's candlestick? Do I need to say more?
The US stock market has already collapsed. CPI exceeded expectations, and the interest rate cut has been pushed to the end of the year, with the two-year US Treasury yield soaring to 4.3%. The first cut of liquidity withdrawal always strikes the neck of risk assets; the crypto space has never been a safe-haven asset; it’s like the Nasdaq with three times leverage.
Now look at Bitcoin itself.
**The ETF approval marks a historical peak; the institutions that needed to enter have already done so.** Grayscale has been selling for half a year, and the assets haven't cleared out yet. BlackRock's holdings haven’t moved in three months. Are you waiting for the tens of trillions of wealth management funds? Isn’t it more appealing for them to buy US Treasuries for a 4.5% return? Why would they step in?
**The halving narrative has completely collapsed.** The price of coins is even lower than that day during the fourth halving. The curse that happens once every four years has finally been exposed; the next potential topic for speculation won’t come until 2028. In these three years, what do you have to retain people?
**On-chain data has proven: there are no newcomers.** Daily active addresses have returned to 2017 levels, inscriptions are cold, and RGB is unused. An asset without applications, income, or innovation, how can it support a trillion-dollar market cap?
**The miner cost line has been breached.** Public companies are starting to disclose share reductions. You think they are diamond hands; they just haven't released their annual reports yet.
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**What are you waiting for if you’re not shorting now?**
Waiting for the Federal Reserve to suddenly cut rates?
Waiting for the ETF to suddenly see net inflows?
Waiting for your friend who chased highs in 2021 to finally break even?
**By then, the candlestick will already be in a different position.**
**The line has been drawn for half a year.**
**Whether to hang a short position, whether to let others make money, you decide.**
**Don’t wait until it breaks down and then ask in the comments: can I still short?**
#BTC #ShortBitcoin #ETFGoodNewsFullyReleased #HalvingIneffective
#MinersSurrender #InstitutionsRetreat #LiquidityWithdrawal