You look at Solana's fundamentals; I'm really not being harsh, it's just that it has narrowed its own path.
**First, the income model has collapsed.** What has supported this bull market? It's not DeFi; it's the Pump.fun pipeline of low-quality tokens. Thousands of coins are issued every day, and 99% are worth nothing after three days. It may be lively, but the money burned in Gas fees is hardly enough for anything. The protocol's income was 120 million in Q1, directly halved in Q2. Gamblers will lose everything, and the dealers will leave. Income supported by MEME has never been sustainable.
**Second, developers cannot be retained.** The foundation issues PR every day, claiming "hackathon registrations are at an all-time high." But if you ask those who have taken advantage of airdrops and claimed rewards, how many have really run the mainnet? The data from Electric Capital is public: the retention rate of Solana developers is less than 30% after 12 months. Where have Builders like Base, Sui, and Berachain gone? They are not fleeing Solana; they are escaping the singular business model of 'users only gamble and do not play.'
**Third, the chip structure is an obvious risk.** How much inventory is left in the liquidation of FTX's legacy? How many tokens are released into the market each month from early private placements? Every bullish candlestick in the past six months has not been new capital entering; it has been finding a good price for this batch of goods. Do you think sideways movement indicates a bottom? That's just the inventory not yet fully released.
**Fourth, the ETF narrative has peaked.** The Bitcoin ETF talks about digital gold, the Ethereum ETF discusses decentralized computers; what does the Solana ETF talk about? A faster, cheaper casino? The SEC isn't foolish. An ETF without institutional allocation logic, even if approved, will just be Grayscale 2.0—listing at its peak and then flowing out for three years.
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The MEME tide is receding, Builders are flowing out, unlock pressure is mounting, and the ETF narrative is priced in.
Four factors, all in the same direction.
If you don’t short now, will you wait for Q3 earnings to continue halving? Will you wait for the FTX legacy to break the cost line?
The line has been drawn for half a year.
Whether to hang short orders, whether to let others earn money, you decide for yourself.
#SOL #ShortSOL #IncomeHalved #DeveloperOutflow
#UnlockPressure #ETFPeak #四个因子同向