When not talking about K-lines, let's discuss the fundamentals of Solana—three core narratives have completely collapsed.
**First, the MEME tide has receded, and income has plummeted.**
What has supported Solana during this bull market? It's not DeFi, it's not DePIN, it's the room full of meme coins from Pump.fun. Thousands of coins are issued daily, and 99% hit zero within three days. It's indeed lively, but the money burned in gas fees—what can it achieve?
In Q1, protocol revenue was 120 million, but it directly halved in Q2. It's not a technical issue; the gamblers have left, and the big players can't control it anymore. A public chain that relies on taking a cut from the casino for valuation—the casino has no one left; where's the next round of growth?
**Second, developers can't be retained.**
The foundation constantly shouts, "The hackathon registration is at an all-time high," but have you asked these people how many of them have gone live on the mainnet after grabbing airdrops and claiming prizes?
The data doesn’t lie: Solana's developer retention rate is less than 30% after 12 months. Where have the builders gone? Base, Sui, Berachain. They’re not fleeing Solana; they’re escaping the single business model of "users only gamble and don’t play."
**Third, the chip structure is extremely dirty.**
How much of the FTX legacy is still unliquidated? Early private placements unlocking—how many coins are dumped into the market each month? Every bullish candle over the past six months has been about finding a good price for this batch of goods.
**Fourth, ETF expectations have been overly priced.**
Bitcoin ETF talks about digital gold, Ethereum ETF discusses decentralized computers, what does Solana ETF talk about? A faster and cheaper casino?
The SEC isn’t foolish. An ETF without institutional allocation logic, even if approved, will be just like Grayscale—glorious at launch, then flowing out for three years.
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The MEME tide recedes, developers flee, unlocking pressures mount, ETF narratives are priced in.
Four factors, all in the same direction.
If you don't short now, will you wait for Q3 earnings to continue halving? Will you wait for the FTX legacy to break through the cost line?
The line has been drawn for half a year.
Will you hang a short position or let others make money? You decide.
#SOL #ShortSOL #MEMETideRecedes #DeveloperLoss
#UnlockingPressure #ETF预期见顶