美国零售数据逊预期

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#美国零售数据逊预期 #美国科技基金净流 #易理华割肉清仓

The U.S. retail data unexpectedly "hit zero", and this cold arrow made the market explode instantly. As the economic pillar, consumption suddenly stalled, directly shattering the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance.
Tonight, the Nasdaq is consolidating at high levels, gold and silver are wildly hedging, while $BTC is jumping back and forth around the $70,000 mark.
Current situation's three major pain points:
Consumption recession signal: Retail month-on-month at 0.0% far below expectations, indicating that high interest rates are draining people's wallets. The dollar index (DXY) was forced to pull back, which was supposed to be the "fuel" for gold and silver, but instead became a "warning bell" for U.S. stocks.
$GHST
The big non-farm report becomes "Judgment Day": The market is currently extremely anxious, and if the upcoming non-farm data falls below the 100,000 mark, it will completely confirm that the labor market is "breaking down". At that time, the Federal Reserve's narrative will switch urgently from "anti-inflation" to "saving the economy".
Asset logic differentiation: Gold has firmly stood at the $5,000 mark, demonstrating safe-haven dominance; silver has surged 7% in one day, showcasing resilience.
$DF
Meanwhile, Bitcoin and tech stocks are painfully caught between the "interest rate cut boon" and the "recession bear".
#美国零售数据逊预期
#GoldSilverBounce
#GHST
Retail cold snap is just an appetizer, the non-farm report is the final drum. The current market is not afraid of inflation, but fears recession. #美国零售数据逊预期

#美国零售数据逊预期
#非农意外强劲
This week's macro data shows an extremely strong contrast.
On one hand, the unexpectedly 'strong' January non-farm data is shielding the Federal Reserve's hardline stance; on the other hand, the recently announced retail sales data (Retail Sales) unexpectedly stalled at 0.0%, piercing through the lie of 'economic resilience' like a cold arrow.

The 'structural collapse' of the consumption engine: Retail data shows zero (far below the expected 0.4%), and 8 out of 13 categories have declined. This indicates that the erosion of household wealth by high interest rates has shifted from 'quantitative change' to 'qualitative change.' The passive retreat of the US dollar index (DXY) is essentially the market pricing in an early 'forced rate cut.'

The 'sovereign game' of safe-haven assets: Gold has crossed the $5,000 mark, and silver surged 7% in a single day. This is not just a safe haven, but also a vote of distrust in fiat currency. In contrast, $BTC's fluctuations around $70,000 reflect the extreme tug-of-war between 'recession panic' and 'liquidity expectations' for risk assets.

The 'judgment day' script for non-farm payrolls: The strong non-farm data in January is very likely the last instance of 'inflated numbers' before annual benchmark revisions. The current market anxiety lies in the possibility that if the upcoming data falls below 100,000, the Federal Reserve's narrative will instantly switch from 'preventing inflation' to 'emergency liquidity.'

The retail cold snap is the appetizer; non-farm payrolls are the main course. The current market logic has changed: inflation is not feared, but recession is. Tech stocks and BTC are undergoing the most painful period of adaptation, while the strength of gold and silver may be rehearsing the path for the next round of massive liquidity influx.

#美国零售数据逊预期 Consumption has stalled, and the prosperity is just an illusion. U.S. retail data for December showed zero growth month-on-month, significantly below the expected 0.4%, with the previous value of 0.6% being halved directly, causing the consumption engine to stall immediately. The so-called strong recovery is merely a paper prosperity propped up by high interest rates. Of the 13 major categories, 8 have declined, with cars, clothing, and home appliances all experiencing a cooling trend. Americans are not unwilling to spend; they truly cannot afford to. As the data cools, expectations for interest rate cuts immediately rise, putting pressure on the dollar and causing asset volatility. Don't be fooled by the stock market's new highs; the weakness in consumer spending is the truest indicator of the U.S. economy's temperature. This is not a temporary slowdown; it marks the beginning of a retreat in domestic demand. $BTC

#美国零售数据逊预期 US retail sales in December were flat at 0%, far below the expected +0.4%. The Christmas shopping season surprisingly did not drive growth, directly contradicting the narratives of "consumer resilience" and "soft landing."

There are essentially two points:

1. Consumers really have no money to spend. High inflation has squeezed the purchasing power of middle- and low-income groups, and holiday spending has failed to stimulate demand, indicating that demand is clearly weak and not just a short-term fluctuation.

2. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path has been repriced. Previously, the market was betting on a "golden girl" style soft landing (inflation down, steady growth), but this data has significantly lowered that probability. Inflation is declining slowly, and growth has begun to turn downward; the Fed may cut rates fewer times this year than expected, or at a slower pace.

The impact on cryptocurrencies and risk assets is very direct:
- In the short term, bearish sentiment is rising, with gold, silver, Bitcoin, and the Nasdaq all under pressure, and low liquidity over the weekend could amplify volatility.
- In the medium term, if non-farm payrolls and subsequent data continue to be weak, interest rate cut expectations may actually heat up again, and the liquidity story could return.

But at this point, the most genuine reaction is: the market does not believe "the economy is fine" and does not dare to go all in betting on the Fed saving the market immediately. It’s just oscillation, bottoming out, and waiting for the next clear signal.

My approach remains unchanged: I will consistently invest $3000 weekly in BTC/ETH/BNB, and only take light positions in small contracts without chasing highs or cutting losses. The messier the data, the more disciplined I must be.

Do you think this retail data is a precursor to a hard landing, or just a temporary disturbance? #何时抄底？

#美国零售数据逊预期 12 Retail sales in February showed no growth compared to the previous month, significantly lower than the expected +0.4%.

The holiday shopping season suddenly came to a halt, with furniture (-0.9%), clothing (-0.7%), and electronics (-0.4%) all showing weakness. The market quickly priced in a 30% chance of three rate cuts within the year, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond briefly fell to 4.13%.

With consumption cooling and expectations for rate cuts rising, loose liquidity is favorable for risk assets.

$BTC $ETH

U.S. retail sales are weak, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to accelerate interest rate cuts!
Overnight U.S. retail sales data fell short of expectations, leading to a weakening of the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), and market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have surged. Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya pointed out that U.S. consumer spending has indeed shown weakness. Although large-scale AI investments are expected to become an important support for economic growth, they may not lead to more job opportunities. She further stated that if this trend continues, the U.S. economy may exhibit a dual-speed growth pattern, which would force the Federal Reserve to take more policy support measures.
#美国零售数据逊预期 #美国科技基金净流 #易理华割肉清仓 #黄金白银反弹 #美国伊朗对峙 $BTC $ETH $XRP

Is the Federal Reserve's 'Rate Cut Dream' Stabilized? Retail Shock, Non-Farm Payroll Relay: Global Assets Enter a Momentous Shake! 小🔥奶🔥🐶🐾二周年生日快乐🍰小奶狗清瑜68868meme🐾直播

​U.S. retail data unexpectedly showed 'zero', and this cold arrow caused the market to explode instantly. As a pillar of the economy, consumption suddenly stalled, directly shattering the Federal Reserve's hard-line stance.
Tonight, the Nasdaq is flat at a high level, gold and silver are crazily hedging, and $BTC is jumping around the $70,000 mark.

​Three major pain points in the current situation:
​Signal of Consumption Decline: Retail month-on-month at 0.0% far below expectations, indicating that high interest rates are draining the public's wallets. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is forced to pull back, which was originally 'fuel' for gold and silver, but has become a 'warning bell' for U.S. stocks.
$GHST
​The Big Non-Farm Payroll as 'Judgment Day': The market is currently extremely anxious; if the upcoming non-farm data falls below 100,000, it will completely confirm the 'breakdown' of the labor market. At that time, the Federal Reserve's narrative will switch urgently from 'anti-inflation' to 'rescue the economy'.
​Asset Logic Divergence: Gold has stabilized at the $5,000 mark, showcasing its safe-haven dominance; silver surged 7% in a single day, demonstrating resilience.
$DF
Meanwhile, Bitcoin and tech stocks are caught in a painful tug-of-war between 'rate cut benefits' and 'recession risks'.
#美国零售数据逊预期
#黄金白银反弹
#GHST
​The retail shock is just the appetizer; the non-farm payroll is the main event. The current market is not afraid of inflation, but is fearful of recession.

#美国零售数据逊预期 US April retail sales data significantly missed expectations, with only a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, far below the market expectation of 0.8%. As a 'barometer' of consumption, this data reflects the weakening consumer spending power under high inflation and rising interest rates. Sales of durable goods such as automobiles and furniture saw a significant decline, and non-essential items also showed signs of fatigue. The market is concerned about the weakening economic momentum, leading to a drop in US stocks in the early trading session, a decline in US Treasury yields, and traders betting that the Federal Reserve may end the interest rate hike cycle earlier than expected.

#美国零售数据逊预期 #美国科技基金净流

It means that Americans are spending less money!!

This indicates that the economy is cooling down, and the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates, which is favorable for cryptocurrencies, but there will be fluctuations in the short term.

 1. This data is not great, let's discuss it a bit: Retail data = total amount that Americans spend while shopping, online shopping, dining, etc. This time it was worse than expected, indicating that people are reluctant to spend money, don't want to spend money, or don't have money to spend.
In simple terms: The US economy is not that hot anymore, and inflation pressure will decrease.

 2. The most critical impact on cryptocurrencies: Expectations of interest rate cuts! The Federal Reserve only looks at two things: 1. Is inflation high? 2. Is the economy hot?

Now:
Economic cooling → Inflation is easier to suppress → The Federal Reserve is more likely to cut interest rates sooner. What does cutting interest rates mean?

1. More dollars.
2. Keeping money in the bank is not profitable.
3. Funds will flow into risk assets like stocks, cryptocurrencies, and gold.

So this is favorable for $BTC/ETH!! That's all, please imagine the rest yourself!!

 

 

 

#美国零售数据逊预期
Retail Data Impact on Bitcoin
Weak retail data reinforces short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin, but oversold technicals provide a rebound window. The U.S. December retail data released on February 10, 2026 (flat month-over-month, below the expected 0.4% growth) exacerbates concerns about economic slowdown, with BTC dropping from $70,000 to $68,000 (-2.9%), continuing the bear market trend since the January high of $91,000.

Macroeconomic sensitivity revealed: The data confirms that Bitcoin remains driven by traditional risk asset sentiment, with poor economic conditions → expectations for interest rate cuts failing to offset the selling pressure dominated by risk aversion.
Technical oversold rebound expected: RSI at 30.46 is in the severely oversold range, MVRV at 1.25 valuation enters a reasonable range, with a historical average rebound of 15-25% from similar positions.
Derivatives high leverage amplifies volatility: In the past 24 hours, $94M worth of liquidations saw long positions make up 70%, high leverage positions intensify the downside risk, and caution is needed regarding potential chain liquidations.
Market sentiment extremely pessimistic: The Fear and Greed Index at 12 (extreme fear) typically corresponds to a mid-term bottom area, but fundamental catalysts are needed to confirm a reversal.

Short-term: Resistance formed at $68,000-$70,000, with key support below at $60,000 (previous low). Mid-term: Valuation enters an accumulation range, but clarity on Federal Reserve policy (timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts) is needed. Catalysts: Next week’s U.S. employment report (February 12) and CPI data (February 13) will determine the next direction.

Overall assessment: The impact of data is in line with expectations—macroeconomic weakness poses short-term bearish risks to risk assets, but Bitcoin's oversold condition and reasonable valuation provide a foundation for rebound. Currently in the later stage of a bear market, patiently waiting for signals of policy shift. $BTC

#美国零售数据逊预期 - US retail sales for December unchanged at 0%, far below the expectation of +0.4%, showing a clear weakening in consumption.
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- Core retail sales month-on-month at -0.1%, also below expectations, indicating a cooling in domestic demand.
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- Consumption accounts for about 70% of the US GDP, with weak data signaling an economic slowdown.
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- Market interpretation: Expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, US Treasury yields are declining, and the dollar is weakening.
​
- Key focus moving forward: January non-farm payroll data, to confirm the pace of the economic soft landing.$BTC
$ETH
$BNB

Recent U.S. retail data fell short of expectations, and the market interprets this as a signal of economic cooling, which typically leads the Federal Reserve to adopt a more accommodative stance in monetary policy. In an environment of low interest rates and abundant liquidity, investors often seek higher-yielding assets, which has made cryptocurrencies increasingly attractive.

#美国零售数据逊预期 #美国科技基金净流

The cryptocurrency market, especially Bitcoin, has proven its potential as a hedge against inflation and uncertainty in traditional markets over the past few years. With changes in the macroeconomic environment and the growing interest of institutional investors in digital assets, cryptocurrencies are expected to usher in a new wave of increases. Its decentralized and global characteristics allow it to provide unique value storage and investment opportunities during fluctuations in traditional financial markets. Therefore, now is an excellent time to focus on and invest in cryptocurrencies.

$BTC $BNB $XRP

【Hot Topics】U.S. Retail "Stalling", Is Bitcoin Ready to Soar? 🚀
Last night, the U.S. December retail data (terrible data) was only 0.0%, far below the expected 0.4%. This indicates that Americans are "unable to buy", and weak consumer spending has become a fact.

💡Opinion: Bad news is good news!

Interest rate cut expectations rise: A soft economy forces the Federal Reserve to "dove", and the expectation of liquidity release is a strong support for $BTC .

U.S. Treasury Bonds Plunge: Safe-haven funds are looking for an exit, and the attractiveness of crypto assets has risen again.

Operational Advice: There will be short-term fluctuations, but "liquidity return" is the major trend. Don't be scared away by the data; as long as inflation doesn't rebound, this could be a good opportunity to position for interest rate cut expectations. Keep a close eye on support levels and avoid high leverage!

#美国零售数据逊预期

$BTC $ETH $BNB

🧨The "terrifying data" from the U.S. in December has exploded! Consumer spending has suddenly stalled, and economic alarms are ringing?

U.S. retail sales unexpectedly showed "zero growth" in December, marking a heavy end to what seemed like a robust 2025 consumer outlook. Market expectations were for a 0.4% increase, but reality was as cold as ice, with core retail sales nearly stagnant. Where has the consumer momentum gone?

High-end consumption is still holding up, but low-income groups are retreating. CPI rose by 2.7%, and expenditures are not keeping up with inflation! Out of 13 categories, 8 saw declines, with clothing, furniture, and automobiles all weakening. Gold has soared in response, while the dollar has plummeted!

Even more worrying: the trend of downgraded consumption is becoming widespread, with Pepsi stating budget constraints and Lululemon seeing downgraded spending. The benefits of tax reform may be difficult to sustain, Trump's policy pace is slowing down, can the outlook be truly optimistic?
Can tax refunds at the beginning of the year save the market? Is the job market really as "stable" as the Federal Reserve claims? The suspense remains, and the market will change!
#美国零售数据逊预期 #何时抄底？ #币安比特币SAFU基金