#美国零售数据逊预期
Retail Data Impact on Bitcoin
Weak retail data reinforces short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin, but oversold technicals provide a rebound window. The U.S. December retail data released on February 10, 2026 (flat month-over-month, below the expected 0.4% growth) exacerbates concerns about economic slowdown, with BTC dropping from $70,000 to $68,000 (-2.9%), continuing the bear market trend since the January high of $91,000.
Macroeconomic sensitivity revealed: The data confirms that Bitcoin remains driven by traditional risk asset sentiment, with poor economic conditions → expectations for interest rate cuts failing to offset the selling pressure dominated by risk aversion.
Technical oversold rebound expected: RSI at 30.46 is in the severely oversold range, MVRV at 1.25 valuation enters a reasonable range, with a historical average rebound of 15-25% from similar positions.
Derivatives high leverage amplifies volatility: In the past 24 hours, $94M worth of liquidations saw long positions make up 70%, high leverage positions intensify the downside risk, and caution is needed regarding potential chain liquidations.
Market sentiment extremely pessimistic: The Fear and Greed Index at 12 (extreme fear) typically corresponds to a mid-term bottom area, but fundamental catalysts are needed to confirm a reversal.
Short-term: Resistance formed at $68,000-$70,000, with key support below at $60,000 (previous low). Mid-term: Valuation enters an accumulation range, but clarity on Federal Reserve policy (timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts) is needed. Catalysts: Next week’s U.S. employment report (February 12) and CPI data (February 13) will determine the next direction.
Overall assessment: The impact of data is in line with expectations—macroeconomic weakness poses short-term bearish risks to risk assets, but Bitcoin's oversold condition and reasonable valuation provide a foundation for rebound. Currently in the later stage of a bear market, patiently waiting for signals of policy shift. $BTC
