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When to Bottom Fish: Cryptocurrency Market Bottom Signals and Strategy Guide
#何时抄底？
Cryptocurrency Market Bottom Signals and Strategy Guide
Introduction
Bottom fishing is the most tempting yet also the most brutal strategy in cryptocurrency investment—it means buying assets when prices plummet to capture the immense potential of market recovery. The current market is experiencing a significant decline: Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted 13% at the end of January 2026, Ethereum (ETH) fell 25%, and Solana (SOL) dropped 23%, with the total market capitalization evaporating by over $500 billion. Panic is widespread, and social media discussions show that investor confidence has dropped to a low point. However, history shows that this extreme panic often breeds the best investment opportunities. This article analyzes when the right time to bottom fish is based on multidimensional data (technical indicators, on-chain signals, market sentiment).
Cryptocurrency Market Bottom Signals and Strategy Guide
Introduction
Bottom fishing is the most tempting yet also the most brutal strategy in cryptocurrency investment—it means buying assets when prices plummet to capture the immense potential of market recovery. The current market is experiencing a significant decline: Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted 13% at the end of January 2026, Ethereum (ETH) fell 25%, and Solana (SOL) dropped 23%, with the total market capitalization evaporating by over $500 billion. Panic is widespread, and social media discussions show that investor confidence has dropped to a low point. However, history shows that this extreme panic often breeds the best investment opportunities. This article analyzes when the right time to bottom fish is based on multidimensional data (technical indicators, on-chain signals, market sentiment).
#美国零售数据逊预期
Retail Data Impact on Bitcoin
Weak retail data reinforces short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin, but oversold technicals provide a rebound window. The U.S. December retail data released on February 10, 2026 (flat month-over-month, below the expected 0.4% growth) exacerbates concerns about economic slowdown, with BTC dropping from $70,000 to $68,000 (-2.9%), continuing the bear market trend since the January high of $91,000.
Macroeconomic sensitivity revealed: The data confirms that Bitcoin remains driven by traditional risk asset sentiment, with poor economic conditions → expectations for interest rate cuts failing to offset the selling pressure dominated by risk aversion.
Technical oversold rebound expected: RSI at 30.46 is in the severely oversold range, MVRV at 1.25 valuation enters a reasonable range, with a historical average rebound of 15-25% from similar positions.
Derivatives high leverage amplifies volatility: In the past 24 hours, $94M worth of liquidations saw long positions make up 70%, high leverage positions intensify the downside risk, and caution is needed regarding potential chain liquidations.
Market sentiment extremely pessimistic: The Fear and Greed Index at 12 (extreme fear) typically corresponds to a mid-term bottom area, but fundamental catalysts are needed to confirm a reversal.
Short-term: Resistance formed at $68,000-$70,000, with key support below at $60,000 (previous low). Mid-term: Valuation enters an accumulation range, but clarity on Federal Reserve policy (timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts) is needed. Catalysts: Next week’s U.S. employment report (February 12) and CPI data (February 13) will determine the next direction.
Overall assessment: The impact of data is in line with expectations—macroeconomic weakness poses short-term bearish risks to risk assets, but Bitcoin's oversold condition and reasonable valuation provide a foundation for rebound. Currently in the later stage of a bear market, patiently waiting for signals of policy shift. $BTC
Retail Data Impact on Bitcoin
Weak retail data reinforces short-term downward pressure on Bitcoin, but oversold technicals provide a rebound window. The U.S. December retail data released on February 10, 2026 (flat month-over-month, below the expected 0.4% growth) exacerbates concerns about economic slowdown, with BTC dropping from $70,000 to $68,000 (-2.9%), continuing the bear market trend since the January high of $91,000.
Macroeconomic sensitivity revealed: The data confirms that Bitcoin remains driven by traditional risk asset sentiment, with poor economic conditions → expectations for interest rate cuts failing to offset the selling pressure dominated by risk aversion.
Technical oversold rebound expected: RSI at 30.46 is in the severely oversold range, MVRV at 1.25 valuation enters a reasonable range, with a historical average rebound of 15-25% from similar positions.
Derivatives high leverage amplifies volatility: In the past 24 hours, $94M worth of liquidations saw long positions make up 70%, high leverage positions intensify the downside risk, and caution is needed regarding potential chain liquidations.
Market sentiment extremely pessimistic: The Fear and Greed Index at 12 (extreme fear) typically corresponds to a mid-term bottom area, but fundamental catalysts are needed to confirm a reversal.
Short-term: Resistance formed at $68,000-$70,000, with key support below at $60,000 (previous low). Mid-term: Valuation enters an accumulation range, but clarity on Federal Reserve policy (timing and magnitude of interest rate cuts) is needed. Catalysts: Next week’s U.S. employment report (February 12) and CPI data (February 13) will determine the next direction.
Overall assessment: The impact of data is in line with expectations—macroeconomic weakness poses short-term bearish risks to risk assets, but Bitcoin's oversold condition and reasonable valuation provide a foundation for rebound. Currently in the later stage of a bear market, patiently waiting for signals of policy shift. $BTC
#美国科技基金净流
February 2026 Differentiation Pattern
Based on data from February 1-10, 2026, U.S. technology funds show significant differentiation: **traditional tech giant ETFs maintain strong capital inflows, while high-volatility innovative thematic funds face large-scale redemptions**, reflecting a restructuring of market risk preferences under macro uncertainty.
## Core Data Overview
| Fund Category | Representative Fund | Capital Flow | Size Change | Time Period |
|---------|----------|----------|----------|--------|
| **Traditional Tech Giants** | Invesco QQQ (QQQ) | **Net Inflow +$5.1 Billion** | AUM $412.1 Billion | First week of February |
| **Innovative Thematic Funds** | ARK Innovation (ARKK) | **Net Outflow -$1 Billion+** | AUM shrank by 16.22% | February 1-10 |
| **Overall Market** | All ARK Funds | Net Outflow -$3.15 Billion | AUM $16.29 Billion | Daily in February |
## Market Logic Analysis
**Capital flow differentiation** reveals the current core logic of the market:
- **Increased Risk Aversion**: Investors are shifting from high-volatility innovative thematic funds to stable tech blue chips
- **Cash Flow Pricing outweighs Imagination Pricing**: The stable cash flows of QQQ components (NVIDIA, Microsoft, etc.) are more attractive
- **Ongoing Macro Pressure**: Uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy prompts capital reallocation
## Short-term Outlook
This differentiation pattern may continue into late February, largely depending on:
1. Whether QQQ capital inflows can maintain current momentum
2. Whether innovative thematic funds experience a technical rebound
3. The clarity of Federal Reserve policy signals
**Investment Insight**: Avoid blanket judgments on the tech sector; asset quality should be differentiated, seeking structural opportunities within the differentiation.
February 2026 Differentiation Pattern
Based on data from February 1-10, 2026, U.S. technology funds show significant differentiation: **traditional tech giant ETFs maintain strong capital inflows, while high-volatility innovative thematic funds face large-scale redemptions**, reflecting a restructuring of market risk preferences under macro uncertainty.
## Core Data Overview
| Fund Category | Representative Fund | Capital Flow | Size Change | Time Period |
|---------|----------|----------|----------|--------|
| **Traditional Tech Giants** | Invesco QQQ (QQQ) | **Net Inflow +$5.1 Billion** | AUM $412.1 Billion | First week of February |
| **Innovative Thematic Funds** | ARK Innovation (ARKK) | **Net Outflow -$1 Billion+** | AUM shrank by 16.22% | February 1-10 |
| **Overall Market** | All ARK Funds | Net Outflow -$3.15 Billion | AUM $16.29 Billion | Daily in February |
## Market Logic Analysis
**Capital flow differentiation** reveals the current core logic of the market:
- **Increased Risk Aversion**: Investors are shifting from high-volatility innovative thematic funds to stable tech blue chips
- **Cash Flow Pricing outweighs Imagination Pricing**: The stable cash flows of QQQ components (NVIDIA, Microsoft, etc.) are more attractive
- **Ongoing Macro Pressure**: Uncertainty in Federal Reserve policy prompts capital reallocation
## Short-term Outlook
This differentiation pattern may continue into late February, largely depending on:
1. Whether QQQ capital inflows can maintain current momentum
2. Whether innovative thematic funds experience a technical rebound
3. The clarity of Federal Reserve policy signals
**Investment Insight**: Avoid blanket judgments on the tech sector; asset quality should be differentiated, seeking structural opportunities within the differentiation.
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HUMA token continuous decline report
$HUMA @Huma Finance 🟣
Based on the latest data, the price of the HUMA token has continuously dropped from $0.025 on February 1 to $0.0132, with a drop of 45.3% over 7 days. Here is a comprehensive analysis:
Price performance analysis
Key data points:
Current price: $0.0132 (2026-02-08 10:22 UTC) 7-day drop: -45.3% (from $0.0248 to $0.0132) 24-hour trading volume: $53,441 (very low DEX trading volume)
From the price trend chart, it can be seen that HUMA began to accelerate its decline on February 4, with a single-day drop of 8.5% on February 5, followed by a continuous downward trend. The hourly chart shows a typical low liquidity unilateral downward trend, with weak buying support.
Based on the latest data, the price of the HUMA token has continuously dropped from $0.025 on February 1 to $0.0132, with a drop of 45.3% over 7 days. Here is a comprehensive analysis:
Price performance analysis
Key data points:
Current price: $0.0132 (2026-02-08 10:22 UTC) 7-day drop: -45.3% (from $0.0248 to $0.0132) 24-hour trading volume: $53,441 (very low DEX trading volume)
From the price trend chart, it can be seen that HUMA began to accelerate its decline on February 4, with a single-day drop of 8.5% on February 5, followed by a continuous downward trend. The hourly chart shows a typical low liquidity unilateral downward trend, with weak buying support.
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The Era of Creator Economy
The Era of Creator Economy
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