#美国零售数据逊预期 US retail sales in December were flat at 0%, far below the expected +0.4%. The Christmas shopping season surprisingly did not drive growth, directly contradicting the narratives of "consumer resilience" and "soft landing."

There are essentially two points:

1. Consumers really have no money to spend. High inflation has squeezed the purchasing power of middle- and low-income groups, and holiday spending has failed to stimulate demand, indicating that demand is clearly weak and not just a short-term fluctuation.

2. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path has been repriced. Previously, the market was betting on a "golden girl" style soft landing (inflation down, steady growth), but this data has significantly lowered that probability. Inflation is declining slowly, and growth has begun to turn downward; the Fed may cut rates fewer times this year than expected, or at a slower pace.

The impact on cryptocurrencies and risk assets is very direct:

- In the short term, bearish sentiment is rising, with gold, silver, Bitcoin, and the Nasdaq all under pressure, and low liquidity over the weekend could amplify volatility.

- In the medium term, if non-farm payrolls and subsequent data continue to be weak, interest rate cut expectations may actually heat up again, and the liquidity story could return.

But at this point, the most genuine reaction is: the market does not believe "the economy is fine" and does not dare to go all in betting on the Fed saving the market immediately. It’s just oscillation, bottoming out, and waiting for the next clear signal.

My approach remains unchanged: I will consistently invest $3000 weekly in BTC/ETH/BNB, and only take light positions in small contracts without chasing highs or cutting losses. The messier the data, the more disciplined I must be.

Do you think this retail data is a precursor to a hard landing, or just a temporary disturbance? #何时抄底？