愿吻其翔

Wall Street is undergoing a silent mass retreat. Just this week, data showed that US tech funds experienced the most severe sell-off in nearly a year—over $4 billion in funds fled in just one week. Only SOXX (semiconductor ETF) and VGT (tech ETF) saw outflows of over $2 billion each.

US Tech Bubble
Don't be fooled by the superficial prosperity of the market. Although overall US stocks are still seeing inflows, money is wildly fleeing from the 'crowded' tech stocks and shifting towards traditional sectors. This is not just about taking profits; it's a defensive reallocation by institutions against the bursting of the AI bubble.

The Epstein case has finally burned down to the backyard of cryptocurrency. The latest decrypted documents show that this 'Lolita Island' owner was not only a broker on Wall Street but also an early infiltrator in the crypto world. Don’t just eat the melon; there are huge market risks hidden inside.

The Crimes of Epstein
There are two core explosive points in this round of revelations:
First, Brock Pierce, co-founder of Tether and EOS, is mentioned over 1800 times in the documents. The documents reveal that Epstein indirectly invested in Coinbase through Blockchain Capital, with this early 3 million dollars of 'dirty money' from 2014 later turning into 11 million dollars for exit funds. Although Coinbase denies having direct employment, if the SEC catches hold of this funding relationship, the compliance costs will be astronomical.

Last night's non-farm payroll data (NFP) was simply a blow to the bulls. The market expected an increase of 70,000, but it directly exploded to 130,000, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%.

Non-farm payrolls exploded
The economy seems strong, but it actually hides dangers. Wall Street immediately traded on the expectation that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates, causing the price to instantly drop below $67,000, and the market's fear index plunged into the 'extreme fear' zone. The logic is simple: if the economy is too good, the Federal Reserve has no reason to inject liquidity. Thus, news that is good for the real economy has become poison for liquidity in the cryptocurrency market.
But don't be fooled by appearances; there is a detail that very few people notice: the report significantly revised down the employment data for 2025 by over 1,000,000! This means that the so-called 'strong' performance over the past year is all inflated. This seemingly strong increase of 130,000 is likely to be a 'watered meat' that will be revised down in the future.

The U.S. retail sales data for December released last night directly slapped all the optimists in the face. The market expected a growth of 0.4%, but the actual result was 0%. Core retail data also remained flat, and it should be noted that this was supposed to be the hottest Christmas shopping season.

U.S. consumption stagnation
The signals conveyed by this set of data are very clear: American consumers' wallets are empty.
A closer look at the sub-item data is indeed shocking. The consumption in automobiles, furniture, electronics, and even dining has all declined. This is not simply a case of 'consumption downgrade'; it is a survival-type 'consumption stagnation'. The so-called narrative of 'soft landing' from a few months ago now seems pale and powerless at this moment. Previously, the market was still debating when the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates; now the question has turned into: how quickly will the economic recession arrive?

Bitcoin mining difficulty has just experienced a 11.16% decrease. The market is full of wailing, worried about a decline in network security or the escape of computing power, but what I see is an extremely greedy opportunity.

The logic behind this data is very cruel and clear: miners have surrendered.
The adjustment of mining difficulty means that, in the current price environment, high-cost old mining machines can no longer cover electricity costs and are forced to shut down. This is not a bad thing; it is the market automatically undergoing a 'metabolism.' When those small and medium miners who cannot withstand financial pressure leave the market, the continuous selling pressure generated to 'pay electricity bills' will significantly decrease.

410,000 ETH, 700 million USD loss. This is not a simulation; this is the 'bloody' report just released by Yi Li Hua (Trend Research). Many people are still mocking the big players as being just like retail investors, and even feel an inexplicable psychological balance upon seeing institutional heavy losses, but this is precisely the most fatal flaw of retail thinking.

Yi Li Hua publicly admitted this time, acknowledging 'buying in too early', not only liquidated most of their holdings $ETH but also stated that past successful experiences led to a misjudgment of the cycle. This released an extremely strong market signal: even the top OGs who have been in this industry for ten years have had their psychological defenses and financial leverage completely breached. When the most steadfast bulls are forced to surrender, it often means that the market has entered the most brutal 'deep water zone'.

The whole market is focused on the powder keg in the Persian Gulf, retail investors are frantically selling in panic, but ignoring the most counterintuitive signals on the chart.

US-Iran Confrontation
Trump shouts 'Locked and loaded,' Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, and the USS Lincoln carrier strike group is on the scene. It seems that World War III is about to break out, so $BTC has plummeted from last October's historic high of $126,000 to around $60,000. In just a few months, a 50% drop has completely wiped out long leverage, and market sentiment has plummeted to freezing point.
But please take a calm look at the neighboring commodity market. Brent crude oil is currently hovering around $82. If Wall Street really priced in 'full-scale war,' oil prices would have already broken through $120. The current situation is: the cryptocurrency market is in excessive panic, while the old money is calmly observing.

Yesterday (February 6th), a notice jointly issued by eight departments regarding further prevention and handling of risks related to virtual currencies has caused many group friends to panic late at night. Many people got PTSD just by seeing the words 'completely prohibited within the country' and prepared to cut their losses and leave. Calm down, don't be the leeks scared to death by clickbait.

New ban from eight departments
Carefully comparing the 'September 24 notice' from 2021, you will find that this 2026 version of the 'new ban' is extremely precise; it is not meant to kill the already dead domestic exchanges again, but to block the 'rat holes' for 'exporting to domestic sales'.

BTC has plummeted from last year's October high of $126,000 to around $60,000, a full 50% drop. This is not just a correction; it is a bloody massacre targeting high leverage.

Just last week, the market evaporated over 2 billion USD in contracts, and 570,000 traders were ruthlessly taken away even with stop losses set. The fear and greed index plummeted to 5, a level of extreme fear not seen since 2022. Many are asking: is this a 'golden pit' or a 'crematorium'?
Data does not lie, but it can deceive. Currently, Binance's data shows that the retail and whale buying sentiment remains strong, with a long-to-short ratio as high as 2.2. But this is precisely the most dangerous signal—when everyone is trying to catch the bottom, where is the bottom? Meanwhile, the Smart Money indicator shows 'extreme bearish' sentiment, and nearly 270 million USD has flowed out of spot ETFs. Institutions are retreating, while retail investors are picking up the pieces, which is usually a sign of a bottomless situation.

Yesterday, BTC was smashed through the 60,000 mark with a large bearish line, with nearly 1 billion US dollars in liquidations across the network within 24 hours. ETH is even more tragic, directly returning to 1,849 US dollars, hitting a new low since May 2025. This wave of bloodshed, if you are still blaming the doge whales for crashing the market, then you are too naive.

Picking up people in reverse
The logic behind this drop is very hardcore: macro liquidity has dried up. The Federal Reserve is firmly sticking to an interest rate of 3.50-3.75% without budging, and the expectations for interest rate cuts have once again fallen through, leading to a large inflow of funds back into the US dollar and US Treasuries. Even more critical is the reversal of ETF fund flows; institutions are no longer mindlessly buying in but have started a continuous net outflow. The current market depth is extremely poor, and liquidity is even worse than during the FTX crash in 2022; a little bit of selling pressure can trigger a chain reaction.

Stop blindly praising L2 Summer. At this moment, the reality facing Ethereum is extremely harsh: if fragmentation is not resolved, L2 will become a vampire of ETH instead of a moat.

Where is L2 heading?
Look at the current market: dozens of L2s are like warlords, with liquidity being fragmented. Users have to endure cumbersome cross-chain bridges and high wear costs just to transfer between ARB, OP, and Base. This experience is simply disastrous. As long as users can still feel that they are using 'some L2', Ethereum's scalability is a failure.

The 'shutdown farce' by the U.S. government finally came to an end yesterday. Trump signed the bill, and the $1.2 trillion funding plan has officially taken effect. The market rejoiced as the K-line rebounded, and many thought it was 'safe,' starting to blindly chase high prices. A huge mistake.
What you need to focus on, beyond the surface of the news, is not the 'government opening up,' but that $1.2 trillion.

Heaven OR Hell
This is a blatant liquidity injection. A few days ago, $BTC fell below $80,000, purely due to a liquidity crunch caused by panic over the government shutdown. Now the faucet has been turned back on, and the real logic for the rise has just begun—not because the government is reopening, but because fiat currency has depreciated again. Anti-inflation is the core narrative of crypto assets.

While you are watching the secret negotiations in Doha, the main players are focused on drones in the Persian Gulf.

U.S.-Iran Black Swan
Just yesterday, Iran's Shahed-129 drone attempted to get close to a U.S. aircraft carrier, accompanied by several speedboats harassing oil tankers. Is this a conciliatory attitude? Don't be naive. The so-called 'diplomatic engagement' now is just both sides raising their stakes for the next round at the negotiation table. The White House has restarted 'maximum pressure,' and Tehran is responding with 'probing attacks,' which reflects the true nature of geopolitics.
The market is most sensitive and vulnerable to this kind of 'hit-and-talk' script. The recent pullback is essentially a risk-averse reaction to this uncertainty. Many people feel reassured when they see 'special envoy meetings,' but overlook the protests erupting in Iran due to economic sanctions, which are forcing it to display toughness externally. This situation of internal and external troubles can easily lead to misfires.

After three days of bloodbath, gold and silver staged a 'V-shaped' reversal today. Gold returned above $4,800, and silver surged 9% to surpass $83. If you think this is just a simple oversold rebound, you are too naive.
The essence of this rebound is panic-driven risk aversion, rather than a flood of liquidity.

Gold and silver violently rebounded
The market is digesting two major 'black swans': first, Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, whose hawkish stance triggered the 'Warsh Shock', directly shattering the hopes for interest rate cuts; second, the U.S. government shutdown crisis delaying non-farm payroll data, leading to a frantic influx of funds into precious metals due to extreme uncertainty.

Stop fixating on the 15-minute K-line and getting tangled up in corrections; the main force has already written the answer on their face.
Just yesterday (February 1), the whale that has just renamed itself to Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) made another move. Data shows that they bought another 855 $BTC during this week at the end of January, with an average price as high as $87,974.
You read that right, when retail investors are trembling at the $90k threshold, worrying about a crash, Saylor is crazily accumulating near the historical high price range.

Strategy increases Bitcoin holdings
The logic behind this is extremely cruel and simple:
Chip black hole: As of now, the total number of Bitcoins held by Strategy has exceeded 713,502. What does this concept mean? They have locked up more than 3.4% of the total supply in the entire network.

The market is howling again. Watching the account shrink, many people ask me if I want to cut losses and leave the market. My answer is very simple: if you leave now, you are just giving the main players cheap chips.

This wave of pullback to $77,000 is not the 'end of the bull market', but a precise lever cleaning. Just look at the data, the open interest in the futures market has significantly decreased, what does that mean? It means that those speculators who borrowed money to gamble have already been forcibly liquidated. The market has never been as light as it is now, which is precisely a sign of a healthy rise.

Let's chat about something light today; Silicon Valley has gone completely crazy lately. The sales of Mac mini have bizarrely skyrocketed, not because Apple released some miraculous machine, but because all the geeks are rushing to buy it to run Clawdbot (which has now been renamed Moltbot due to trademark issues).

Clawdbot is being snatched up crazily
This thing has garnered over 50,000 stars on GitHub in just 20 days, leaving the VC circle dumbfounded. Why? Because what Peter Steinberger created is not just a chat machine, but the culmination of this round of AI narrative - the 'fully automated employee.'
Clawdbot doesn't waste time; it can take over your computer directly: monitoring competitors 24/7, automatically replying to emails, generating invoices, and even writing code to fix bugs on its own. It doesn’t sleep, slack off, or require social insurance and housing funds. This means that the era of 'one-person companies' challenging public companies has truly arrived, and traditional corporate structures are collapsing.

Breaking news shows that the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group has entered 'all ships dark' and radio silence status. At the military tactical level, this is usually a standard action before launching a large-scale strike—what is known as an 'attack posture'. Given the escalating tensions in the Middle East recently, this is certainly not an ordinary drill.

US-Iran Standoff
The current situation is very clear: the powder keg is being ignited. This level of geopolitical risk is the biggest black swan for financial markets.
Many retail investors' first reaction to this kind of news is panic selling, worried that $BTC will follow the plunge of risk assets. Indeed, the tightening of liquidity at the beginning of a war can lead to a drop in asset prices, but please look beyond the phenomenon to see the essence: the end of war is always currency depreciation, debt expansion, and a surge in safe-haven demand. This is precisely the core narrative logic of $BTC as 'digital gold'.

#下任美联储主席会是谁？
Today is January 29, 2026, and there are less than 4 months left until Powell (Jerome Powell) officially steps down in May. The market is already tired of speculation about this Federal Reserve, and the core competition now revolves around the newcomer who will take over the money printing machine. This is not just a personnel change; it is a turning point for $BTC and even the entire crypto market's fate for the next four years.

Hassett OR Warsh
Currently, the most noteworthy competition on the White House's short list is between Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh.
Kevin Hassett is the 'dream financial reserve' of the crypto community. As a former Coinbase advisor, he not only understands the field but has also publicly stated that 'Bitcoin will rewrite the rules of finance.' He supports including $BTC in the national strategic reserve and opposes the SEC's abuse of power. If he takes office, it means the regulatory iron curtain will be torn open, and crypto assets will gain unprecedented compliance dividends.

Last night the FOMC decision came out, and the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%. This seems to be the expected 'garbage time,' but if you only focus on the four words 'maintain unchanged,' you have completely been fooled by the market.

The real heavyweight signal lies in internal divisions. The FOMC statement shows that Governors Miran and Waller directly voted against, advocating an immediate rate cut of 25 basis points. This is a rare public split for the Federal Reserve in recent years. What does this mean? It means that the squeeze of high interest rates on liquidity has already caused panic among insiders, and behind Powell's so-called 'strong economic' data, there may be cracks that only the core can see.