The whole market is focused on the powder keg in the Persian Gulf, retail investors are frantically selling in panic, but ignoring the most counterintuitive signals on the chart.
Trump shouts 'Locked and loaded,' Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, and the USS Lincoln carrier strike group is on the scene. It seems that World War III is about to break out, so $BTC has plummeted from last October's historic high of $126,000 to around $60,000. In just a few months, a 50% drop has completely wiped out long leverage, and market sentiment has plummeted to freezing point.
But please take a calm look at the neighboring commodity market. Brent crude oil is currently hovering around $82. If Wall Street really priced in 'full-scale war,' oil prices would have already broken through $120. The current situation is: the cryptocurrency market is in excessive panic, while the old money is calmly observing.
In fact, the secret talks between the US and Iran held in Oman on February 6 are the real game-changer. Both sides are under extreme pressure, but no one truly wants to flip the table. This kind of geopolitical game of 'loud thunder but little rain' has always been the best script for main players to take the opportunity to wash the plate. The current decline is essentially a liquidity reset under the pretext of geopolitical issues.
Once any signs of easing from the Oman talks are revealed, the rebound of $BTC will be retaliatory. For smart money, Bitcoin at $60,000 is a bloody chip; for the retail investors, this is the death knell.
At the current price, are you panic selling, or are you being greedy when others are fearful? Let me know your position in the comments.
