After three days of bloodbath, gold and silver staged a 'V-shaped' reversal today. Gold returned above $4,800, and silver surged 9% to surpass $83. If you think this is just a simple oversold rebound, you are too naive.
The essence of this rebound is panic-driven risk aversion, rather than a flood of liquidity.
The market is digesting two major 'black swans': first, Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chairman, whose hawkish stance triggered the 'Warsh Shock', directly shattering the hopes for interest rate cuts; second, the U.S. government shutdown crisis delaying non-farm payroll data, leading to a frantic influx of funds into precious metals due to extreme uncertainty.
What does this mean for the encrypted market?
Many are still trying to find the sword in the boat, believing in 'gold linkage'; if gold rises, BTC should rise too. Wake up, data doesn’t lie. The short-term correlation between BTC and gold has dropped to -0.54, completely decoupled. Gold rises because of risk-off sentiments, while Bitcoin’s current attributes are closer to Nasdaq tech stocks (risk-on). When the market panics due to Warsh's hawkish expectations and government shutdowns, funds will sell high-risk $BTC and embrace 'old money' gold.
The current situation is clear: gold is siphoning off the market's safe-haven funds, while $BTC is still struggling around the $78,000 line. As long as Warsh's shadow looms, and as long as geopolitical and debt crises are brewing, gold’s strength will be the blood-sucking machine of the crypto market.
Operational advice: Don't blindly rush into crypto just because gold is rising. The current logic is 'seesaw' rather than 'allied forces'. Keep a close watch on $BTC 's $78,000 support level; if this level can't hold, this wave of gold's frenzy will be Bitcoin's funeral.
Is it old money embracing safe-haven assets, or sticking with the volatile digital assets? How do you choose?
