The U.S. retail sales data for December released last night directly slapped all the optimists in the face. The market expected a growth of 0.4%, but the actual result was 0%. Core retail data also remained flat, and it should be noted that this was supposed to be the hottest Christmas shopping season.
The signals conveyed by this set of data are very clear: American consumers' wallets are empty.
A closer look at the sub-item data is indeed shocking. The consumption in automobiles, furniture, electronics, and even dining has all declined. This is not simply a case of 'consumption downgrade'; it is a survival-type 'consumption stagnation'. The so-called narrative of 'soft landing' from a few months ago now seems pale and powerless at this moment. Previously, the market was still debating when the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates; now the question has turned into: how quickly will the economic recession arrive?
For the cryptocurrency market, never blindly believe that 'bad news is good news.' Although weak data may force the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts, before liquidity is truly released, the warming of recession expectations will first impact risk assets. Historical experience tells us that when the real economy truly slows down, the U.S. stock market and crypto market often first undergo a wave of liquidity crisis with mixed outcomes.
Currently, the $BTC has risk-averse attributes, but don't forget it is still highly linked to macro liquidity. If American retail investors even cut back on spending for meals, who has extra money to take on high-priced shares?
In the upcoming market, the main players are likely to repeatedly lure in buyers using the expectation of interest rate cuts, and then complete the washing of positions amidst recession panic. At this time, compared to blindly going all in, preserving the principal is the top priority.
This time, do you think the Federal Reserve's money printing machine is faster, or is the speed of economic collapse faster?
