The_Coin_Hunter

#美国零售数据逊预期 12 Retail sales in February showed no growth compared to the previous month, significantly lower than the expected +0.4%.

The holiday shopping season suddenly came to a halt, with furniture (-0.9%), clothing (-0.7%), and electronics (-0.4%) all showing weakness. The market quickly priced in a 30% chance of three rate cuts within the year, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond briefly fell to 4.13%.

With consumption cooling and expectations for rate cuts rising, loose liquidity is favorable for risk assets.

$BTC $ETH

#易理华割肉清仓 The market sentiment has changed dramatically, even the "believers" can no longer withstand the pressure?

Recently, well-known investor in the Chinese cryptocurrency field, former partner of NGC Ventures Yi Lihua, was reported on social media to have stated that he has "cut losses and liquidated" his main cryptocurrency holdings. This move quickly sparked heated discussions in the Chinese community and was widely interpreted as a noteworthy market sentiment signal.

🔍 Background and Interpretation

· Character Tag: Yi Lihua is known for his early and deep involvement in multiple blockchain projects, and his "liquidation" statement forms a stark contrast to his previous image as a long-term holder.
· Market Context: This action occurred during a period of significant fluctuations and adjustments in the cryptocurrency market. Some viewpoints suggest that this may reflect a loss of confidence among some investors, choosing to step back and observe.
· Divergent Views: There are also analyses pointing out that individual actions cannot represent the overall market. The position adjustments of seasoned investors may sometimes be due to their own financial arrangements or strategy changes, rather than purely bearish sentiment.

💎 Reflection
Regardless of the reason, the public actions of core figures always influence market sentiment. When a former "Holder" chooses to exit, do you see this as a warning "surrender signal" or a sign that market pessimism has reached its peak?
$BTC $ETH

#Bitcoin谷歌搜索量暴升 During market panic, what are retail investors paying attention to? 📈

In the past week, the global search volume score for "Bitcoin" on Google surged to 100, setting a record high for the past 12 months. This wave of search frenzy is directly related to the drastic fluctuations in prices: Bitcoin's price dropped from about $81,500 to around $60,000 within five days, and then rebounded to above $70,000.

This reflects two key market sentiments:

1. Panic and exploration: During the same period, the search volume for "crypto capitulation" soared by 427%, while the cryptocurrency fear and greed index fell into the "extreme fear" zone. This indicates the anxiety of investors during the crash.
2. Opportunity and return: Some analysts point out that the surge in searches may indicate a return of retail investor attention. Data also shows that American investors' willingness to buy around $60,000 has increased.

Historical experience suggests that when everyone on the street is discussing it, it often signifies a phase of market frenzy or panic peak.
Do you think this surge in search volume is a signal that the market is about to bottom out, or is it a prelude to a new round of fluctuations?

$BTC

#Global Tech Stock Sell-off Impacts Risk Assets Tech Giants 'Lose Speed', Can the Crypto Market Remain Unscathed?⚡

Recently, there has been a significant sell-off in global tech stocks, represented by the 'Seven Giants of US Stocks'. The Nasdaq 100 index has pulled back from its peak, with some star tech stocks experiencing noticeable declines.

Historical data shows that the correlation between crypto assets (especially Bitcoin) and traditional tech stocks can significantly strengthen during specific periods (such as when market risk aversion increases). The recent fluctuations in tech stocks have raised concerns in the market about tightening liquidity and declining global risk appetite.

With expectations of tightening macroeconomic policies, these two types of high Beta (high volatility) assets, stocks and cryptocurrencies, may face synchronized pressure. The market is assessing whether this is a healthy sector rotation or the beginning of a larger risk aversion cycle.

As a typical risk asset, the crypto market is at an observation point regarding the global shift in capital flows. How significant do you think the transmission effect of this tech stock sell-off will have on the crypto market?
$BTC $ETH

#小非农数据不及预期 The macro warm wind suddenly arrives, and the market's interest rate cut expectations heat up again! 💨

The recently announced U.S. December ADP employment (“small non-farm”) data added 42,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 50,000, and significantly down from the previous value. After the data was released, the market reacted quickly:

· The U.S. dollar index fell immediately, breaking below the 102 mark.
· U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board.
· The market's expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have significantly increased.

The transmission logic to the crypto market:
Weak employment data is seen as a signal of economic cooling, which strengthens the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates earlier or intensifying efforts to support the economy. A more accommodative monetary environment has always been a “tailwind” for risk assets like cryptocurrencies, as it reduces the cost of holding non-yielding assets and may prompt funds to seek higher returns.

Market impact and key observations:
After the data was released, Bitcoin briefly surged by about $400. The core observation point of the market has shifted to Friday's official non-farm employment report; if the data is similarly weak, it may completely solidify the market's dovish expectations.

Do you think this macro warm wind can drive the crypto market out of its current volatile pattern?
$BTC $ETH

#特朗普称坚定支持加密货币 When the former President of the United States publicly supports the cryptocurrency industry at a campaign rally, it is no longer a personal preference but a clear policy signal.

During his campaign event in New Hampshire, Trump explicitly stated: "I will ensure that the future of cryptocurrency happens in the United States, not in other countries." This is his first direct commitment to support cryptocurrency during the campaign after announcing his candidacy for re-election, continuing his self-proclaimed position as the 'crypto president.'

The three layers of meaning behind his statement:

1. Policy Continuation: He has previously established a 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' and signed executive orders supporting innovation; this statement reinforces his campaign platform that 'America must lead in crypto innovation.'
2. Critique of the Current Administration: He directly criticized the Biden administration's regulatory approach, claiming it 'stifles innovation' in an effort to win the support of the crypto community and young voters.
3. Industry Assurance: As a key candidate in an election year, making such a clear commitment aims to provide certainty in the turbulent cryptocurrency regulatory environment.

When political forces clearly choose to embrace the cryptocurrency industry, do you think this will have a decisive impact on the regulatory path in the United States and the flow of global crypto capital?
$BTC $ETH

#V神卖币 A piece of news with two interpretations: Is it a routine operation or a strategic shift? 🤔

Vitalik Buterin's recent on-chain activity has once again become the focus, but its nature is different from the past simple sale of Meme coins.

· Latest updates: Significant ETH transfers and liquidation
According to the latest on-chain data, Vitalik recently executed two operations:
1. First, he transferred 16,384 ETH from his personal address to a multi-signature wallet.
2. Subsequently, he sold 493 ETH from that wallet, valued at approximately 1.16 million USD.
He explained that these funds will be used for a multi-year donation plan supporting open-source and verifiable software and hardware development, stating that the Ethereum ecosystem is entering a phase of "moderate tightening" to focus on core issues.
· Consistent principle: Ongoing disposal of Meme coin airdrops
Meanwhile, he continues to deal with a large number of unsolicited Meme coins airdropped to his wallet. This follows his long-term stance: selling or donating these tokens to avoid being used as marketing tools by project teams, with proceeds typically donated to charity.

Market impact and reflection
The sale of Meme coins can sometimes trigger short-term price fluctuations, but this transfer of a large amount of ETH to a specific plan may warrant more attention.

Do you think that compared to the previous sale of "free" Meme coins, this transfer of his own ETH to support specific development conveys a deeper signal?
$ETH

#BTC何时反弹？ The market is seeking consensus, and these three issues are the current focus:

1. When will on-chain data bottom out? A halt in selling by long-term holders and a net outflow of exchange balances are typically seen as signals of reduced supply pressure.
2. Can the macro landscape turn? The market is assessing the Federal Reserve's policy path, and any signs of a warming expectation for interest rate cuts could serve as a catalyst for a rebound.
3. Can the technical structure be repaired? Attention is on whether Bitcoin can regain a foothold and break through key moving averages (such as on a weekly basis), which is the first step in rebuilding technical confidence in the market.

The bottom is not a point, but a process. What signal do you think the current market needs most to confirm the beginning of a rebound?
$BTC

#金银为何暴跌 A 'Perfect Storm' Resonating with Policies, Leverage, and Bubbles 💥

On January 31, 2026, the precious metals market faced a historic shock. The spot gold price experienced a maximum daily drop of over 12%, marking the largest decline in 40 years; silver saw an even more dramatic 'cliff-like drop', plummeting nearly 36% within the day. Behind this epic crash are the violent resonance of multiple factors.

Direct Trigger: Fed Policy Expectations Turn 'Hawkish'
On the eve of the crash, Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Warsh is viewed as a 'hawkish' figure, advocating for a reduction of the balance sheet (tightening), which completely reversed the market's previous strong expectations for interest rate cuts and monetary easing. The sudden shift in policy direction led to a stronger dollar, directly suppressing gold and silver priced in dollars.

Market Factors: Extreme Overbuying and High Leverage 'Panic'
Before the crash, the market had accumulated enormous bubbles and risks:

· Astonishing Surge: In January 2026, the price of gold soared from around $3000 to nearly $5600, with silver increasing over 60%.
· High Leverage: A large number of retail investors and funds used high leverage to chase the upward trend. When prices began to drop, it triggered massive programmatic stop-losses and forced liquidations, instantly forming a vicious cycle of 'decline → liquidation → further decline', leading to a depletion of liquidity and amplifying the declines.

Underlying Structure: The 'Perfect Fragility' of the Silver Market
The decline in silver prices far exceeded that of gold, stemming from its unique fragility:

· Strong Speculative Nature: This round of increases was filled with speculative elements detached from fundamentals, with premiums on both domestic and international markets reaching historic highs.
· Poor Liquidity: Compared to gold, the liquidity in the silver spot market was already scarce, and during panic, buying quickly disappeared.
· Disappointment in Delivery Expectations: Bulls who previously speculated on 'insufficient delivery inventory' were forced to liquidate under regulatory measures such as increased margin requirements at exchanges, triggering a 'bull killing bull'.

Impact and Lessons
This crash led to over 150,000 investors globally being liquidated, with domestic gold jewelry prices plummeting over 100 yuan per gram. It delivered a profound lesson to the market: any frenzied rise detached from fundamentals will ultimately face a brutal clearing when leverage and liquidity reverse.

Do you think this crash marks the end of the bull market, or is it a healthy adjustment after the clearing of euphoric sentiment?

#CZ币安广场AMA just ended! CZ shared key insights in this conversation.

Core takeaways:

1. About the market: [for example: his views on the current market cycle, or comments on a specific sector].
2. About Binance: [for example: the platform's future product focuses or development directions].
3. Interaction highlights: [for example: responded to a highly discussed community issue].

Every direct conversation with CZ allows us to feel his deep thoughts and firm beliefs about the industry. What point impressed you the most?
$BNB

#美联储维持利率不变 After the interest rate hike cycle, the "preventive rate cut" has temporarily come to a halt, and the policy has shifted to a "data-dependent" mode.

In Beijing time on January 29, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%. This decision aligns with market expectations and marks a pause in the consecutive three rate cuts since September 2025.

📊 Key points of the meeting

· Rate Decision: The interest rate remains unchanged, with a voting result of 10:2. Two governors appointed by President Trump (Waller and Mester) voted against, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut.
· Economic Assessment: The description of economic activity in the statement was raised from "moderate" to "robust" expansion. It also noted that "the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stability."
· Policy Stance: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell emphasized that future policy adjustments "have no predetermined path" and will depend entirely on economic data. The statement removed previous references to "increased risks of job downturns."
· Focus: Inflation is clearly identified as the current primary concern, with the statement stating it "remains slightly elevated."

💎 Market Impact and Outlook
This decision is interpreted by the market as a slightly "hawkish" signal. The interest rate futures market indicates that traders believe there is about a 60% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's June meeting. Powell has rarely publicly defended the independence of the central bank during his term (which will end in May 2026), calling it the "cornerstone of modern democratic systems," reflecting the political pressure faced by current monetary policy.

Do you think the Fed's "pause" is to observe the effects of the previous rate cuts, or does it mean that this round of easing is nearing its end? $BTC $DXY

#The Federal Reserve Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged The first FOMC meeting of 2026 has concluded, with policy on pause, but the market has begun to price in the “post-Powell era.”⏸️

📌 Key Decision Overview

· Interest Rate Decision: The target range for the federal funds rate remains unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%.
· Policy Shift: This move pauses the consecutive three rate cuts since September 2025.
· Internal Disagreement: Among the 12 voting members, two Trump-appointed governors voted against, advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut.

🔍 Key Interpretations and Market Outlook

· Reason for Pause: The statement noted that economic activity is “expanding robustly” and removed previous references to “increased risks to employment.” The Federal Reserve believes more data is needed to assess the effects of the prior rate cuts and the inflation path before taking further action.
· Unclear Rate Path: Powell emphasized that the policy has “no predetermined path” and will be entirely “data-dependent” going forward. The market expects the next rate cut may be delayed until after Chairman Powell's term ends in May.
· Increased Political Pressure: This decision comes amid ongoing criticism of the Federal Reserve and Powell himself facing scrutiny from the White House. Powell notably defended the independence of the central bank at the meeting, stating that monetary policy should not be directly controlled by elected officials.

💎 Summary
This meeting represents not only a pause in policy but possibly a transitional period of an era. In the face of political uncertainty and economic data dynamics, the Federal Reserve has chosen to wait and see.

Do you think that before the arrival of the “post-Powell era,” the Federal Reserve's decision to hold steady will lead to a longer period of volatility in the crypto market, or could it create a window for a new trend?
$BTC $ETH

#Senate Agriculture Committee Cryptocurrency Market Structure Bill Key Moment Approaches, But Bipartisan Divisions Cast Shadow on Legislative Prospects.

U.S. Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman John Boozman released the discussion draft of the Digital Commodity Exchange Act on January 21. The core of the bill is to grant the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) exclusive regulatory authority over the U.S. cryptocurrency spot market, aiming to establish a clear federal regulatory framework for exchanges and brokers.

📅 Latest Developments

· The committee markup originally scheduled for January 27 has been postponed to January 28 (Thursday) due to weather conditions.
· Democrats have expressed willingness to return to the negotiating table, seeking to advance based on bipartisan consensus.

⚖️ Legislative Core and Challenges
Core Objectives of the Bill

· Establish CFTC as the primary regulatory authority for the cryptocurrency spot market.
· Create a regulatory framework for digital commodity intermediaries.
· Establish a retail user advocacy body and plan to provide regulatory funding through industry fees and an initial allocation of $150 million.

Current Major Challenges

· There are divisions between the two parties on “fundamental policy issues.” Democratic concerns include insufficient consumer protection and potential conflicts of interest arising from former President Trump’s family involvement in cryptocurrency projects.
· The bill requires 60 votes in the Senate to pass, meaning bipartisan support is needed.
· The relevant legislative process in the Senate Banking Committee has stalled, adding complexity to the overall market structure legislation.

The historic step of centralizing regulatory authority with the CFTC is about to be voted on in the committee, but political divisions may halt it. Do you think this bill can finally be passed this year?
$BTC $ETH

#美国伊朗对峙 Geopolitical 'Powder Keg' Heats Up Again, Risk Assets Face Tests

As we enter 2026, tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated sharply. Both sides have shifted from diplomatic warnings to substantive military deployments and sanctions confrontations.

· Escalating Tensions: Since large-scale protests erupted in Iran in early January, the United States has repeatedly expressed support for the protesters and threatened intervention. In response, Iran has warned that it will consider any attack as 'total war'.
· Military Dynamics: The United States has increased troop deployments to the Middle East, including moving the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to the region. Iran has announced that its military is on high alert.
· Sanction Intensification: On January 23, the United States implemented a new round of sanctions against Iran, targeting its oil export network.

Market Impact Observation: Traditionally, geopolitical crises in the Middle East may drive up oil prices and trigger risk aversion in the markets. Although U.S. President Trump recently stated that he has not completely closed the door on diplomatic solutions, the uncertainty is extremely high.

Is this level of confrontation a mere interlude of short-term market volatility, or could it be a black swan that changes the macro landscape? Do you think the attributes of cryptocurrency as a 'risk asset' or 'safe-haven asset' will prevail?
$BTC $ETH

#美股七巨头财报 This week welcomes a climax, AI investment returns face a major market "test"! 📊

As the earnings season enters its core phase, several companies among the "seven giants" of the US stock market will intensively release their performance this week. The market's focus has shifted from "Is AI real?" to "Can massive investments bring actual returns?".

Core observation points:

1. Intensive release period: Microsoft, Apple, Meta, and Tesla plan to announce their earnings on January 28-29.
2. Diverging expectations: The market expects significant differences in performance among the giants. Companies closely related to AI and cloud computing are viewed more favorably, while those more reliant on consumer demand face pressure.
3. Market concerns: Investors are closely watching how these tech giants manage the skyrocketing capital expenditures for the AI race and whether these investments are translating into tangible profits and cash flow.

This earnings season is not only about quarterly performance but also serves as a test of the technology giants' AI strategies. How will the market respond? A mix of tension and anticipation.

#美国伊朗如何影响市场 Geopolitical "gray rhinos" are heading to the market!

Latest situation: The Trump administration has announced a 25% tariff on any country that maintains trade relations with Iran, and the order has taken immediate effect. At the same time, the U.S. has further expanded sanctions on Iran's oil trade and shipping network.

Core market transmission pathways:

1. Oil price shock: Iran's crude oil exports account for about 3% of global supply and control the oil transport chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. If conflicts escalate and lead to supply disruptions, oil prices may soar. Analysts have pointed out that blocking the Strait could push prices up to $150 per barrel.
2. Global inflation and interest rate expectations: The surge in energy prices will reshape the global inflation outlook and may force major central banks to maintain tight monetary policies for a longer period, delaying interest rate cuts.
3. Risk sentiment reversal: Geopolitical uncertainty will suppress global risk appetite, with funds potentially withdrawing from equities, cryptocurrencies, and other risk assets, shifting towards safe-haven assets like the dollar and U.S. Treasuries.

Implications for the cryptocurrency market: In the short term, risk aversion and capital outflows create direct pressure. However, in the medium to long term, if geopolitical crises intensify concerns over the dollar's credibility, it may highlight Bitcoin as a "safe-haven asset" and a "non-sovereign store of value" narrative.

Do you think this round of geopolitical crisis will have a short-term emotional impact on the cryptocurrency market, or will it trigger a deeper reassessment of asset values?
$BTC $ETH

#Grayscale submits BNB ETF application milestone! BNB is expected to become the third largest spot ETF asset after BTC and ETH. 📜

Grayscale has officially submitted the 19b-4 rule change document for the BNB Trust (GBBN) to the SEC on January 6, 2026, which is a key step in applying to become a spot ETF.

Key information points:

· Progress stage: Currently in the phase of submitting applications to the exchange (Cboe BZX) and seeking rule exemptions, awaiting SEC review and approval.
· Core basis: The application document states that BNB futures have been traded for over a year on exchanges regulated by the CFTC (such as CME), complying with relevant regulations for creating spot ETF products.
· Market reaction: After the announcement, BNB surged, with prices breaking through $390 at one point.

This is an important step for BNB towards becoming a mainstream financial product. If approved, it will provide investors with the first regulated direct investment channel for BNB.

What do you think the chances are of BNB's spot ETF approval? What profound impact will this have on the BNB ecosystem?
$BNB $BTC $ETH

#达沃斯世界经济论坛2026 Global leaders gather to seek the 'spirit of dialogue' in uncertainty.

This year's annual meeting will be held from January 19 to 23 in Davos, Switzerland, bringing together nearly 3,000 representatives from politics, business, and academia from over 130 countries. The core of the conference revolves around five major global challenges, seeking to address them through public-private cooperation: fostering collaboration in a world of intensified competition, unleashing new growth drivers, better investing in people, responsibly scaling innovation, and building prosperity within planetary boundaries.

📊 Key Risks and Prospects

· Primary Risk: The 'Global Risks Report 2026' published by the forum indicates that 'geoeconomic confrontation' has replaced extreme weather as the primary global risk in the short term.
· Economic Forecast: A UN report predicts a global economic growth rate of 2.7% in 2026. Forum President Borge Brende stated that if large-scale warfare escalation can be avoided, the growth rate is expected to remain above 3%.
· Status of Cooperation: The 'Global Cooperation Barometer' shows that the current level of cooperation is insufficient to address significant challenges. 53% of chief economists expect global economic conditions to worsen in the coming year.

💡 Forum Focus and Highlights

· Technological Transformation: The paradigm shift in technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing is a key focus of this year's forum, which also warns of the accompanying social risks.
· China's Role: The resilience of the Chinese economy and its role in green development and digital innovation are receiving widespread attention, seen as an important contributor to global growth.

In a complex landscape of global economic slowdown, intertwining protectionism, and technological transformation, what kind of impact do you think the signals conveyed by this top-level dialogue will have on the risk appetite for global assets (including the crypto market)?
$BTC $ETH

#特朗普取消对欧关税威胁 A game surrounding Greenland has temporarily moved away the trade stick hovering over Europe.

US President Trump announced on social media that, due to reaching a "framework for future agreements" with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg regarding Greenland and the Arctic region, he decided to cancel the tariffs originally planned to be imposed on February 1 against eight European countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the UK, the Netherlands, and Finland). These tariffs were initially set to start at 10% and rise to 25% in June.

Previously, Trump threatened to impose tariffs, citing these countries' opposition to the US acquiring Greenland, which led to heightened trade tensions. This change in attitude has been interpreted by the market as a short-term easing of geopolitical risks, and European and American stock markets have shown signs of recovery.

Will the temporary alleviation of macro uncertainties boost global market risk appetite and bring spillover liquidity confidence to the cryptocurrency market?

$BTC $ETH

#特朗普对欧洲加征关税 Geopolitical "Black Swan" takes off, will risk aversion ignite the crypto market?⚡

Trump once again unleashes the tariff stick, targeting eight European allies. The core facts are as follows:

· Core measure: Starting from February 1, 2026, a 10% tariff will be imposed on U.S. imports from Denmark, France, Germany, and six other countries, with plans to increase the rate to 25% on June 1.
· Direct purpose: Trump has clearly stated that this tariff will remain in effect until the U.S. reaches an agreement for the "complete purchase" of Greenland. This move has sparked strong backlash from European countries.
· Market logic: The sudden escalation of U.S.-Europe trade tensions will exacerbate volatility and uncertainty in traditional financial markets. Historical experience shows that such geopolitical risk events may drive some funds to seek decentralized assets like Bitcoin for hedging or risk aversion.

When tariff weapons are used for territorial transactions, is this a negotiation strategy or a new risk in the global trading system? Do you think this storm will become a catalyst for external liquidity in the crypto market?
$BTC $ETH