#小非农数据不及预期 The macro warm wind suddenly arrives, and the market's interest rate cut expectations heat up again! 💨
The recently announced U.S. December ADP employment (“small non-farm”) data added 42,000 jobs, falling short of the expected 50,000, and significantly down from the previous value. After the data was released, the market reacted quickly:
· The U.S. dollar index fell immediately, breaking below the 102 mark.
· U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board.
· The market's expectations for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve have significantly increased.
The transmission logic to the crypto market:
Weak employment data is seen as a signal of economic cooling, which strengthens the possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting rates earlier or intensifying efforts to support the economy. A more accommodative monetary environment has always been a “tailwind” for risk assets like cryptocurrencies, as it reduces the cost of holding non-yielding assets and may prompt funds to seek higher returns.
Market impact and key observations:
After the data was released, Bitcoin briefly surged by about $400. The core observation point of the market has shifted to Friday's official non-farm employment report; if the data is similarly weak, it may completely solidify the market's dovish expectations.
Do you think this macro warm wind can drive the crypto market out of its current volatile pattern?
