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#美国众议院终止特朗普加拿大关税 The U.S. House of Representatives passed a resolution on February 11 local time with a narrow margin of 219 votes in favor and 211 votes against, demanding the termination of the punitive tariffs imposed by Trump on Canadian goods. In this vote, six Republican lawmakers rarely 'defected' to support the resolution, highlighting divisions within the Republican Party. The Trump administration invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs in 2025, citing 'ineffective fentanyl control,' while the House believes this action abuses the power of national emergency. Although the resolution has been submitted to the Senate, analysts point out that it may ultimately face a veto from Trump. This incident reflects the intensifying tug-of-war between the two parties ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, as well as the negative impact of tariff policies on domestic inflation and people's livelihoods.

#美国科技基金净流 According to recent market dynamics, U.S. technology funds have shown a significant trend of capital outflows. As of the week ending February 4, 2026, technology sector funds experienced a weekly withdrawal of $2.34 billion, primarily due to increased market concerns over the AI bubble and the accelerated reduction by hedge funds. During the same period, hedge funds recorded a historic reduction in software stocks, with their total net holdings falling to 2.6%, and the long-short ratio reaching an all-time low. Moreover, data from December 2025 indicates that investors withdrew $1.6 billion from technology funds in a single week due to concerns over the disruptive impact of AI technology and valuation bubbles, marking the highest amount since the beginning of the year. Capital flows indicate that defensive sectors (such as healthcare) and alternative assets like government bonds are absorbing some of the outflowing funds. Despite short-term pressures, institutions like Goldman Sachs still believe that the fundamentals of technology stocks are strong and the long-term growth logic remains unchanged, but caution is advised regarding valuation correction risks.

#美国零售数据逊预期 US April retail sales data significantly missed expectations, with only a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1%, far below the market expectation of 0.8%. As a 'barometer' of consumption, this data reflects the weakening consumer spending power under high inflation and rising interest rates. Sales of durable goods such as automobiles and furniture saw a significant decline, and non-essential items also showed signs of fatigue. The market is concerned about the weakening economic momentum, leading to a drop in US stocks in the early trading session, a decline in US Treasury yields, and traders betting that the Federal Reserve may end the interest rate hike cycle earlier than expected.

In February #美国伊朗对峙 2026, the US and Iran began a new round of indirect negotiations in Oman, but there were significant differences between the two sides on core issues. Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian clearly outlined the 'red lines,' refusing to compromise on uranium enrichment and ballistic missile issues, emphasizing that the nuclear program is for peaceful use under sovereign rights. The United States continued to apply pressure, deploying aircraft carrier strike groups, shooting down Iranian drones, and escalating economic sanctions, threatening to impose tariffs on countries involved in trade with Iran. Despite both sides sending signals for negotiation, the military standoff continued to escalate: the Iranian Air Force entered a state of maximum readiness, and US negotiators boarded the aircraft carrier to communicate with pilots, with regional tensions showing no signs of easing. Israel demanded that restrictions on Iranian missiles and proxy forces be included in the agreement, further complicating the negotiations. The current situation indicates a lack of strategic mutual trust between the US and Iran, making negotiations more like a 'pressure relief valve' rather than a substantive breakthrough, and the risk of war remains.

#加密市场反弹 The cryptocurrency market is rebounding strongly! Bitcoin has broken through the $60,000 mark, with a 24-hour increase of over 12%; Ethereum closely follows with an increase of more than 10%, and mainstream coins are collectively warming up. The Federal Reserve's expectations for a slowdown in interest rate hikes have boosted the preference for risk assets, combined with some institutions buying on dips, significantly repairing market sentiment. Analysts point out that the short-term technical rebound momentum is strong due to overselling, but caution is needed regarding repeated macro uncertainties, and it is recommended to pay attention to the breakthrough of key resistance levels.

#沃什美联储政策前瞻 If Walsh were to lead the Federal Reserve, the policy framework might present a complex combination of 'preemptive rate cuts + simultaneous balance sheet reduction.' The core logic is: on one hand, responding to the White House's demand for lower financing costs through rate cuts, with expectations of implementing 1-3 rate cuts by 2026; on the other hand, aggressively reducing the size of the balance sheet to counteract the effects of liquidity easing. The contradictions in this policy combination are significant: balance sheet reduction may push up long-term interest rates, counteracting the goal of rate cuts, and the actual interest rate path will heavily depend on inflation data. Walsh advocates that AI-driven productivity improvements could suppress inflation, providing room for rate cuts, but if inflation rebounds, his hawkish stance may reemerge. In the medium to long term, the independence of the Federal Reserve may strengthen, with a policy focus shifting towards supply-side reforms and easing financial regulations, but it needs to balance political pressure with economic data constraints.

#小非农数据不及预期 The ADP employment number for January in the U.S. only increased by 22,000, far below the expected 48,000, marking the lowest level since March 2024. Sub-item data shows that manufacturing decreased by 8,000, and the professional/business services sector laid off 57,000, while healthcare services became the main growth point. The cooling labor market has intensified market bets on an earlier rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with CME tools indicating a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in June. As a result, international gold prices have rebounded in the short term, and the U.S. dollar index is under pressure. Due to the government shutdown causing the delayed release of official non-farm data, the ADP report has become the most critical indicator of the current labor market.

On February 3, #美国政府部分停摆结束 2026, U.S. President Trump signed a federal government funding bill, ending a partial shutdown that began on January 31 due to a budget impasse between the two parties. This shutdown stemmed from the Senate passing a funding bill on January 30 that was not timely passed by the House of Representatives, causing nine departments, including the Department of Defense and the Department of the Treasury, to fall into a 'technical shutdown', with approximately 750,000 federal employees forced to take leave. The new bill provides funding for most departments until the end of the fiscal year (September 30), but the Department of Homeland Security only received two weeks of temporary funding to continue negotiations on immigration enforcement disputes. During the shutdown, agencies such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics suspended the release of economic data, exacerbating market concerns about Federal Reserve decision-making. This marks the second government shutdown in the U.S. this year, following a record 43-day shutdown in November 2025, highlighting deep-seated conflicts between the two parties on issues such as healthcare subsidies and immigration policy. Although the crisis has been temporarily resolved, the bill does not cover the budget for the entire year, and analysts point out that there may be a risk of another shutdown at the end of January 2026.

#特朗普称坚定支持加密货币 President Trump has repeatedly expressed his strong support for cryptocurrency, emphasizing that the United States must maintain its leading position in the global cryptocurrency space. At the 2026 Davos Forum, he declared that new cryptocurrency legislation would open a 'new path to financial freedom' and promote the establishment of a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Since taking office in 2025, Trump has signed the 'Genius Act' to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, signed executive orders to promote the construction of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, and appointed several industry supporters to key government positions. His family has profited over $1.4 billion within a year through business operations related to cryptocurrency projects like WLFI tokens and TrumpCoin, with related assets accounting for 20% of the family's total wealth. Despite facing allegations of conflicts of interest, Trump still claims to be 'possibly the person who speaks the most for cryptocurrency,' believing that the development of cryptocurrency is crucial to national competitiveness, or else the country will fall behind competitors like China.

#加密市场回调 Recently, the fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market have intensified. Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum have quickly retraced from their highs, with a daily drop exceeding 5%. The main reason for this round of correction is the concentration of short-term profit-taking, coupled with rising expectations of regulatory tightening in some countries. From a technical perspective, this is a normal adjustment after an upward trend and has not altered the long-term upward trajectory. Investors need to view fluctuations rationally, focus on the fundamentals of the projects, avoid chasing highs and panic selling, and manage their positions reasonably.

#BTC何时反弹？ Technical Support Level: If the price holds within the $72,000-$74,000 range (recent accumulation zone and miner cost line), it may trigger a technical rebound. If it effectively breaks below $70,000, further downside risk should be cautioned.

Macro Policy: The Federal Reserve's February interest rate decision (February 6) may release dovish signals, potentially driving a recovery in risk assets; in addition, if the legislative progress of the U.S. CLARITY Act becomes clearer, it may alleviate regulatory uncertainties.

Capital Flow: If spot ETFs continue to see net inflows (such as over $500 million in a single day) or whales increase their holdings (like the MicroStrategy model), this could become a catalyst for a rebound.

Time Window: Technical indicators show that if the price stabilizes in the $72,000-$74,000 range and a "Stop Hunt" (rapid rise after a false breakout) occurs, it may initiate a rebound; if the Federal Reserve's policy does not exacerbate selling pressure after implementation, the probability of a rebound will significantly increase. In the short term, pay attention to the non-farm payroll data on February 6 and the ISM Manufacturing PMI on February 13, which may disturb market sentiment.

In summary, Bitcoin may experience a phase rebound in late February, but caution is warranted regarding the volatility risks brought by tightening macro liquidity and fluctuating market sentiment.

#美国PPI数据高于预期 US PPI data for December 2025 exceeded expectations, rising by 0.5% month-on-month (previous value 0.2%), and increasing by 3% year-on-year; core PPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month (previous value 0%), and reached 3.3% year-on-year, all higher than market expectations. The breakdown shows that service costs have risen significantly, with trade profit margins experiencing the highest month-on-month increase since mid-2024, primarily driven by wholesale profit margins for machinery and equipment; although commodity prices remained stable overall due to a drop in energy, core commodities (such as home appliances and construction machinery) are still accelerating in price. Analysis indicates that companies are passing on tariff cost pressures through the supply chain, which may drive up consumer inflation in the coming months. Despite the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts in December and emphasizing economic stability, PPI data may intensify market concerns about inflation persistence, affecting future interest rate decision-making paths.

#下任美联储主席会是谁？ According to current market forecasts and the dynamics of the Trump administration, the most popular candidate for the next chairman of the Federal Reserve is Rick Rieder, the Chief Bond Investment Manager at BlackRock. As of January 24, 2026, his election probability on the prediction platform Polymarket has surged to 54%, far exceeding former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh (26%) and current Governor Christopher Waller (11%). Rieder has received positive feedback from the bond market for advocating to lower the federal funds rate from 3.5%-3.75% to 3%, and for supporting dovish policies such as pausing balance sheet reduction, making him a favored candidate for the Senate confirmation process as an 'outsider.' Trump plans to announce the nomination around January 28, before or after the Davos Forum, and he has recently expressed being 'impressed' with Rieder after an interview. Other candidates, such as White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, have dropped out of the race as their probabilities fell to 6%.

#美联储维持利率不变 The Federal Reserve announced on January 28, 2026, that it would maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations. This is the first pause following three consecutive rate cuts in 2025, primarily due to persistent inflation (December CPI year-on-year 2.7%) and a labor market that is stronger than expected (unemployment rate 4.4%). Although December's non-farm payrolls added only 50,000 jobs, the economy continues to show steady expansion, with GDP growth revised up to 4.4%. During the vote, board members Milan and Waller opposed, advocating for a 25 basis point cut. The statement removed the phrase "downside risks to employment," indicating a more optimistic view of the economic outlook. The market expects the possibility of two rate cuts in 2026, with the first potentially occurring after the new chairman takes office in June.

#黄金比特币联动行情能走多远？ The linkage between gold and Bitcoin's market dynamics may persist, requiring a comprehensive assessment of both their attributes and market environment. In the long term, both are viewed as 'anti-inflation assets,' showing a trend of concurrent increases during periods of macro liquidity easing and heightened geopolitical risks (for example, the 2024 Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations driving BTC and gold to simultaneously break historical highs). However, the short-term differentiation is significant: gold relies on central bank reserves and institutional credibility, exhibiting low volatility (annualized around 15%), and is more defensive during extreme liquidity tightening or financial system turmoil; Bitcoin, on the other hand, is driven by market sentiment, ETF fund flows, and other factors, with volatility reaching 50%-80%, showing high Beta characteristics. Currently, gold is at a historical high due to the trend of 'de-dollarization' and central bank accumulation, while Bitcoin is in a correction phase constrained by ETF fund outflows and interest rate trade unwinding. If global supply chain reshaping deepens in the future, gold may continue its safe-haven logic, while Bitcoin needs to overcome regulatory disturbances and technical selling pressure, with the linkage between the two dynamically changing with macro narratives. Investors should pay attention to the emotional transmission of gold's 'parabolic rise' to Bitcoin but remain cautious of short-term divergence risks due to liquidity cycle shifts.

In January #美国伊朗对峙 , the confrontation between the United States and Iran continued to escalate. The United States dispatched the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group into Middle Eastern waters, deploying F-15E fighter jets and missile defense systems to establish military deterrence against Iran. Iran, in turn, raised large anti-American propaganda posters depicting scenes of U.S. aircraft carriers being attacked and warned that if attacked, it would strike U.S. military bases and Israel. Trump stated that a fleet 'larger than that of Venezuela' had been assembled, while also indicating that diplomacy remained an option but emphasized that 'no military action is ruled out.' Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei entered a fortified bunker, and the military announced a state of full alert, stating that they were 'ready to pull the trigger' at any moment. The United Nations Security Council's emergency consultations were unsuccessful, with countries like Qatar and Saudi Arabia calling for restraint, but the regional tensions had already led to the closure of shipping lanes and fluctuations in oil prices. The focal points of the standoff include the Iranian nuclear issue, regional influence, and U.S. interference in Iranian domestic affairs, with the potential for conflict to spiral out of control, possibly triggering regional war and a global energy crisis.

#美股七巨头财报 2025 The financial reports of the 'Seven Giants' in the US stock market for the year 2023 showed a divergence: Microsoft (Azure cloud revenue increased by 40%), Meta (advertising revenue increased by 21%), and Apple (iPhone sales rebounded) performed steadily, with net profits increasing by 12%, 36%, and 7% respectively; Amazon (AWS growth rate of 19%) and Alphabet (cloud business growth rate slowed to 30%) faced market skepticism due to a surge in capital expenditures (over $300 billion in total); Tesla's net profit plummeted by 71% year-on-year, making it the only company with both revenue and profit declines. The common challenges in the industry are highlighted: an explosive increase in investment in AI infrastructure (Microsoft, Meta's capital expenditures expected to reach $80 billion and $70 billion by 2026) but limited short-term returns, compounded by the impact of DeepSeek's low-cost technology and geopolitical trade frictions, the valuation logic for tech stocks is shifting from 'growth narrative' to 'profit verification'.

#Grayscale submits BNB ETF application Recently, leading global digital asset management firm Grayscale submitted a BNB ETF application to the SEC, attracting market attention. BNB, as the core token of the Binance ecosystem, carries multiple values such as trading fee discounts and ecological rights. If approved, it will push BNB into the mainstream institutional asset allocation view, enhance liquidity and compliance attributes, and may become another milestone in the institutionalization process of crypto assets. Currently, BNB is reported at XX dollars, and the market is waiting for regulatory feedback.

#美国伊朗如何影响市场 The situation between the U.S. and Iran escalates, impacting global markets through energy and supply chains. Geopolitical tensions are driving up oil price premiums, and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt 20% of global oil transportation, increasing the risk of supply shortages. Iran, as a major source of methanol imports for China (accounting for 6.42%), may see the conflict affect the chemical supply chain. At the same time, safe-haven sentiment is pushing gold and silver prices to historic highs, with risks spilling over into the metals market. The U.S. has imposed a 25% tariff on Iran and increased military deployments, further exacerbating market volatility expectations.

#美国加密市场法案延迟 The U.S. Senate Banking Committee was originally scheduled to review the Digital Asset Market Clear Act (CLARITY Act) on January 15, 2026, but was forced to postpone due to the withdrawal of support from cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory authority of the SEC and CFTC over digital assets, but the core controversy centers around the stablecoin yield restriction clause: prohibiting exchanges from providing interest rewards for users holding stablecoins, which directly impacts Coinbase's annual revenue model of $1.4 billion from interest. Traditional banks are concerned that such operations constitute 'high-yield savings', while the crypto industry argues that these restrictions will weaken DeFi competitiveness and result in the U.S. regulatory framework lagging behind overseas markets. The Senate Agriculture Committee version of the Digital Commodity Intermediary Act focuses on the CFTC's regulation of the spot market, but there are still disagreements between the two parties regarding the division of responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, and the thresholds for tokenized securities. The delay of the bill may result in the U.S. being one of the few major markets lacking clear crypto regulatory rules by 2026, and the price of Bitcoin has already fallen back to around $95,000 as a result.