#小非农数据不及预期 The ADP employment number for January in the U.S. only increased by 22,000, far below the expected 48,000, marking the lowest level since March 2024. Sub-item data shows that manufacturing decreased by 8,000, and the professional/business services sector laid off 57,000, while healthcare services became the main growth point. The cooling labor market has intensified market bets on an earlier rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with CME tools indicating a significant increase in the probability of a rate cut in June. As a result, international gold prices have rebounded in the short term, and the U.S. dollar index is under pressure. Due to the government shutdown causing the delayed release of official non-farm data, the ADP report has become the most critical indicator of the current labor market.