#沃什美联储政策前瞻 If Walsh were to lead the Federal Reserve, the policy framework might present a complex combination of 'preemptive rate cuts + simultaneous balance sheet reduction.' The core logic is: on one hand, responding to the White House's demand for lower financing costs through rate cuts, with expectations of implementing 1-3 rate cuts by 2026; on the other hand, aggressively reducing the size of the balance sheet to counteract the effects of liquidity easing. The contradictions in this policy combination are significant: balance sheet reduction may push up long-term interest rates, counteracting the goal of rate cuts, and the actual interest rate path will heavily depend on inflation data. Walsh advocates that AI-driven productivity improvements could suppress inflation, providing room for rate cuts, but if inflation rebounds, his hawkish stance may reemerge. In the medium to long term, the independence of the Federal Reserve may strengthen, with a policy focus shifting towards supply-side reforms and easing financial regulations, but it needs to balance political pressure with economic data constraints.