#美国零售数据逊预期
This week's macro data shows an extremely strong contrast.
On one hand, the unexpectedly 'strong' January non-farm data is shielding the Federal Reserve's hardline stance; on the other hand, the recently announced retail sales data (Retail Sales) unexpectedly stalled at 0.0%, piercing through the lie of 'economic resilience' like a cold arrow.
The 'structural collapse' of the consumption engine: Retail data shows zero (far below the expected 0.4%), and 8 out of 13 categories have declined. This indicates that the erosion of household wealth by high interest rates has shifted from 'quantitative change' to 'qualitative change.' The passive retreat of the US dollar index (DXY) is essentially the market pricing in an early 'forced rate cut.'
The 'sovereign game' of safe-haven assets: Gold has crossed the $5,000 mark, and silver surged 7% in a single day. This is not just a safe haven, but also a vote of distrust in fiat currency. In contrast, $BTC's fluctuations around $70,000 reflect the extreme tug-of-war between 'recession panic' and 'liquidity expectations' for risk assets.
The 'judgment day' script for non-farm payrolls: The strong non-farm data in January is very likely the last instance of 'inflated numbers' before annual benchmark revisions. The current market anxiety lies in the possibility that if the upcoming data falls below 100,000, the Federal Reserve's narrative will instantly switch from 'preventing inflation' to 'emergency liquidity.'
The retail cold snap is the appetizer; non-farm payrolls are the main course. The current market logic has changed: inflation is not feared, but recession is. Tech stocks and BTC are undergoing the most painful period of adaptation, while the strength of gold and silver may be rehearsing the path for the next round of massive liquidity influx.
