Toruk Makt0

#btc何时反弹？

Recently, due to the changes from the nomination of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve (Waller), the market has not fully digested the contradictory signals of "both tapering and rate cuts." #BTC just pulled back from around 60,000 to 70,000, and the sentiment remains tense.

When will the rebound happen------My view:
The current rebound feels more like a "dead cat bounce" or short covering after a significant drop. If it can't stabilize at 70,000 and break through with volume, it's likely to revisit the 50s to find support.

In this tangled market, let's take a look at our trading results:

Results: 24 days ROI 1586.44%
Strategy: 42% ETH leading the charge, heavily invested in $BULLA and $HANA, avoiding the internal friction of the market and directly capturing local liquidity in altcoins.

Summary: In the current market, the overall market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's next move, and the rebound is not a one-off event. Instead of grinding away in mainstream coins, it's better to look for opportunities in niche sectors, but the prerequisite is: you need to be able to withstand drawdowns.

In the current market, instead of waiting to die in mainstream coins, it's better to take a risk with me. I still have faith in the explosive potential of niche sectors.

If you want to take a bite before the rebound, just follow along! #带单跟单 #Toruk Makt0

Emphasize once again: There is only this rule for copy trading!

If you want to copy trade, please make sure to manage your hands well and only do three things:
1️⃣ Set fixed ratio for copy trading
2️⃣ Follow the trader with margin mode
3️⃣ Follow the trader's leverage ratio

Aside from this, all take-profit, stop-loss, and currency restrictions must remain closed!

🚫 Since you chose to trust, do not use your subjective intervention to counter the strategy. Excessive operations often mark the beginning of losses.

Investment has risks, copy trading requires caution. No ALL IN, double your principal
#带单跟单 Toruk Makt0

#美国零售数据逊预期
#非农意外强劲
This week's macro data shows an extremely strong contrast.
On one hand, the unexpectedly 'strong' January non-farm data is shielding the Federal Reserve's hardline stance; on the other hand, the recently announced retail sales data (Retail Sales) unexpectedly stalled at 0.0%, piercing through the lie of 'economic resilience' like a cold arrow.

The 'structural collapse' of the consumption engine: Retail data shows zero (far below the expected 0.4%), and 8 out of 13 categories have declined. This indicates that the erosion of household wealth by high interest rates has shifted from 'quantitative change' to 'qualitative change.' The passive retreat of the US dollar index (DXY) is essentially the market pricing in an early 'forced rate cut.'

The 'sovereign game' of safe-haven assets: Gold has crossed the $5,000 mark, and silver surged 7% in a single day. This is not just a safe haven, but also a vote of distrust in fiat currency. In contrast, $BTC's fluctuations around $70,000 reflect the extreme tug-of-war between 'recession panic' and 'liquidity expectations' for risk assets.

The 'judgment day' script for non-farm payrolls: The strong non-farm data in January is very likely the last instance of 'inflated numbers' before annual benchmark revisions. The current market anxiety lies in the possibility that if the upcoming data falls below 100,000, the Federal Reserve's narrative will instantly switch from 'preventing inflation' to 'emergency liquidity.'

The retail cold snap is the appetizer; non-farm payrolls are the main course. The current market logic has changed: inflation is not feared, but recession is. Tech stocks and BTC are undergoing the most painful period of adaptation, while the strength of gold and silver may be rehearsing the path for the next round of massive liquidity influx.

#美国政府部分停摆结束
The farce of the government shutdown is over, BTC is recovering alongside the Nasdaq, but is this really a reversal?

This rebound has surely been seen by everyone. As soon as the government shutdown ended at 3 AM, US stocks took off. Comparing the hourly chart, $BTC is nearly riding the coattails of Nasdaq’s rise. To put it simply, the current crypto market is still the 'junior partner' of US stocks; once risk appetite returns, liquidity flows right in here.

Several concerns that everyone has had recently are actually weakening:
Geopolitics: The issues between the US and Iran may be noisy, but as long as oil prices remain under control, the market will not panic. The US currently holds the Venezuela card, and expectations for crude oil supply are stable, keeping inflation expectations firmly in check.

The negative information has cleared: The factors that caused the market crash a few days ago (policy uncertainty, shutdown panic) have become 'a thing of the past.'

No more negative factors = prices will definitely rise? Not necessarily.
The end of negative factors only indicates that the 'most painful time' has passed.
The market is currently in a period of emotional recovery.
Since the logic for the decline is gone, what remains to be fought for is the actual capital entering the market.
If $BTC can maintain a low trading volume and sideways movement over the next few days without falling behind, it is likely building up strength for the next surge.

Don't let this one bullish candle make you anxious; the overall trend is still under repair. Hold steady if you have assets, and if you don’t, wait for a pullback confirmation. Now is the time for patience, not for boldness.

#btc何时反弹？
In early February, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a phase of low-level volatility following a sharp decline, showing: a weak stabilization but not yet initiating a strong rebound.

Key support level breached: BTC has experienced a significant drop after a long period of sideways trading, breaking through multiple moving averages.
Bottom support: The price has stopped falling and rebounded near $75,500. Currently, the price is oscillating between $76,700 - $78,000, with some buying support in the market after the sharp decline, but the strength is limited.
Indicator pattern: The MA(7) moving average (yellow line) has crossed below the long-term moving average, forming a “death cross” pattern, and the current K line is still blocked by short-term moving average resistance above.

The main trigger for this “bloodbath” drop:
Federal Reserve personnel changes: Trump has nominated **Kevin Warsh** to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Since Warsh is seen as a “hawkish” figure (leaning towards tightening policies), market fears regarding his potential reduction of the balance sheet after taking office have led to a stronger dollar and a sell-off in cryptocurrencies.
Commodity linkage: At the end of January, silver dropped over 25%, and gold dropped over 8%. This widespread decline in global safe-haven assets triggered a liquidity panic, and Bitcoin was not spared.

Why did gold, silver, U.S. stocks, and cryptocurrencies collectively experience a “bloodbath”?
1️⃣ Cash reserves have dropped to a freezing point.
The cash allocation ratio of global fund managers has fallen to a historic low of 3.2%. This means that large institutions are already “fully invested,” leaving no spare cash to push the market higher or to buy in at the bottom.
2️⃣ Retail investors have become the last “sucker.”
Recently, the main buying force for ETFs has switched to retail investors, and institutional incremental buying has long been exhausted. When the market is in a state of “very little cash, very high positions,” any slight movement can trigger a violent shake.
3️⃣ Switching from “adding positions” to “survival” mode.
Stimulated by macro negative factors (such as Federal Reserve personnel changes), high volatility has triggered the risk control models of institutions. Due to a lack of funds to supplement margins, institutions are forced to sell the most liquid assets (gold, silver, BTC, ETH) to relieve pressure.

This is a passive exit, not an active bearish stance. The key moving forward will be the flow of ETF funds: if retail investors also start to cut losses and exit, the downward trend will continue; if it’s just deleveraging, the deep pit created is an opportunity.
#贵金属巨震 #加密市场回调

#下任美联储主席会是谁？

1. January Interest Rate Decision: Pressing the "Pause Button"
The Federal Reserve announced on January 28 that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, ending three consecutive interest rate cuts previously.

Internal Disagreement: Although most members support maintaining the status quo, Board members **Waller and Miran** voted against, advocating for a continued rate cut of 25 basis points.

Powell's Position: In the press conference, he described the U.S. economy as "robust," the unemployment rate has stabilized, and he believes that tariff-driven inflation is transitory, expecting it to peak and decline within the year. He did not commit to the pace of future rate cuts, emphasizing that everything depends on data.

2. Successor Uncertainty: Trump is About to Reveal
As Powell's term as chairman will end in May this year, the next nominee has become a focal point:
Announcement Timing: President Trump has made it clear that he plans to officially announce the nominee for the next Federal Reserve chairman on January 30 at local time (tonight to tomorrow morning in Beijing).

Popular Candidates: Market rumors include BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, White House advisor Kevin Hassett, and current board member Waller.

3. Powell's "Farewell Gift" and Controversy
Against the backdrop of increasing political pressure, Powell's recent statements have been filled with a sense of defending independence:
Advice to Successor: Powell bluntly stated at the press conference that his advice to the successor is: "Stay away from politics, do not get involved in electoral politics."
Legal Issues: Powell is currently facing a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice regarding testimony related to the Federal Reserve building renovation project. He publicly called the investigation an "excuse," aimed at the Fed's failure to comply with the President's desire for rate cuts.
Future Status: Powell has not decided whether to continue as a Federal Reserve governor after his chairman term ends in May (his governor term lasts until 2028). Some analysts believe that if the White House pressure is too great, he may choose to remain as a governor to defend the Fed's independence.

#美联储降息

📉 The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December: What really matters is not the cut itself, but the change in attitude behind it.

Many focus on 25 basis points, but macro traders are more concerned with:
Why is the Federal Reserve choosing to cut rates while inflation is not yet fully stabilized?

This reveals three key signals:

1️⃣ Economic downward pressure is greater than expected
The Fed would not take the “risk of inflation to cut rates” for no reason, indicating that the employment, consumption, and credit data seen internally may be weaker than what the market is perceiving.

2️⃣ Policy goals are starting to be “fine-tuned”
From “prioritizing anti-inflation” → gradually shifting to “not allowing the economy to slow down too much.”
This is a very fine line, but the direction has changed.

3️⃣ Policy is no longer pursuing a one-time solution, but rather a watch-and-see approach
The path of interest rate cuts has shifted from “clear” to “dynamic assessment.”
This uncertainty may favor risk assets in the short term, but in the long term, it means greater volatility.

📊 How does the market view this?

You will find:
• US Treasury bonds rise then pull back
• US stock market sentiment is optimistic but hesitant to explode
• The crypto market is more sensitive, directly pricing in “rate cuts = risk warming”

But the core logic is actually:
This is not a loosening cycle; this is a “forced adjustment cycle.”

💡 In other words:
The rate cut itself is not the story,
“Why cut, to what extent, and what exactly has the Fed seen”
is the key that will truly drive the market in the next 3–6 months.

#加密市场观察 Strategy continues All in BTC, but the stock price pressure is very high.

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) recently invested nearly 1 billion USD, buying more than 10,000 bitcoins, with an average price around 90,000 USD.

Now they hold more than 660,000 BTC, making them one of the largest "bitcoin companies" in the world.

But interestingly:
👉 The company's stock has dropped significantly in the past six months, almost halving
👉 The overall enthusiasm for companies buying BTC has also noticeably cooled

Regarding BTC:
👉 It serves as an emotional support, at least indicating that some people are still willing to continue long-term bets at high levels
Regarding Strategy itself:
👉 They are fully committed to the bet, but the risks are all on their shoulders

Regarding the market:
👉 This is not a "bull market confirmation," but more like faith-based accumulation

Strategy is betting the company's fate on the long-term rise of bitcoin.
This is very hardcore, but not suitable for ordinary people to copy.

#Bitcoin #Strategy #crypto

#带单跟单
BOBUSDT type coins are essentially high volatility + low liquidity.
The real way to make money is not to chase breakthroughs, but to wait for dips, accumulate, and wait for rebounds.

In this BOB long position, what I'm focusing on is not the "rally," but the turnover within the consolidation range.

So the approach is very simple:

👉 Buy on the dip, reduce the cost
👉 When the rebound is in place, close all positions

Don't get attached to battles, don't tell stories, just make money from liquidity.
For this type of coin, if the timing is right, one hour is enough.

#BOBUSD #短线交易 #币安永续 #交易思路

#比特币vs代币化黄金

CZ and Peter Schiff had a face-to-face debate at the Binance Blockchain Week in Dubai: Gold vs Bitcoin.

Interestingly, in the end, CZ invited Schiff to issue tokenized gold on Binance, and he did not deny it.

This incident itself indicates a reality:

👉 Whether Bitcoin is gold is not important, but the future gold may need to circulate on the chain.

The data is also very clear:
Gold $22T
BTC ~$2.2T
Tokenized gold ~$3.5B (still small, but on the rise)

It’s no longer a matter of “either/or,” but:
BTC is responsible for growth, gold is responsible for stability, and blockchain is responsible for efficiency.
The market has already voted with real money.

#Bitcoin #RWA #TokenizedGold #加密资产

🐋 A whale has entered the market again.
Lookonchain data shows that the address pension-usdt.eth has opened another 20,000 ETH long position at 2x,
entry price $3,040, liquidation price directly pulled to $1,190.

It is clear that this is not a bet on short-term fluctuations,
but rather funds that can withstand pullbacks and are bullish on ETH in the long term.

At least one thing can be confirmed:
👉 Positions of this level are not afraid of short-term washouts.

✅ 2x + Deep liquidation price = Strong risk control
A liquidation price of $1,190 indicates that this position allows for significant volatility in ETH, resembling a "trend-oriented long position" rather than a high-leverage directional bet.

📈 Large funds' medium to long-term confidence in ETH
Repeatedly building positions at current price levels, rather than making a one-time gamble, shows a long-term judgment on the value and ecosystem of ETH (staking, L2, ETF expectations, etc.).

⚠️ Does not mean short-term will definitely rise
A whale's confidence does not equal an immediate market surge. Short-term fluctuations and pullbacks are still possible, but this type of behavior is a bullish signal for the "emotional bottom" and "structural bottom."

#ETH走势分析

The focus is not on the position itself, but on the structure and mentality of the position:
Not chasing highs, not using high leverage, and leaving enough room for pullbacks is the real way to survive in trading.

#美联储降息周期

The expectation for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates during the FOMC meeting on December 10-11 has significantly cooled.

The probability of the Federal Reserve lowering the federal funds rate from the current range of 3.75%-4.00% by 25 basis points (to 3.50%-3.75%) is about 50%, which is a typical "coin toss" situation. This probability has sharply declined from last week's 62.8% and last month's 96%, reflecting increasing uncertainty in the market regarding the Federal Reserve's decisions.

Main Drivers of the Expectation Change

The Federal Reserve's decisions are highly dependent on its dual mandate: achieving maximum employment and a 2% inflation target.

Currently, the U.S. economy shows signs of a "soft landing," but inflation pressures and uneven employment data have exacerbated the divergence between hawkish (tightening) and dovish (easing) views. Here are the key influencing factors:

1. Market pricing and futures trends:
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of maintaining interest rates in December is about 50%, while the likelihood of a larger cut (50bp or more) is close to zero.

The implied median federal funds rate in the futures market for the end of 2025 is 3.775%, only slightly lower than the current level.

This indicates that investor concerns about the Federal Reserve "pausing" interest rate cuts have risen, especially in light of recent stock market volatility and hawkish statements.

2. Statements from Federal Reserve officials:
There are clear divisions within the Federal Reserve: hawkish officials (such as Boston Fed President Collins) emphasize inflation risks and tend to favor delaying rate cuts; dovish officials focus on cooling employment.

The minutes from the October FOMC meeting show that some members have discussed the possibility of pausing rate cuts. Institutions like Goldman Sachs still predict a rate cut in December, but emphasize that this depends on November data.

3. Economic data support:
Inflation: The August PCE inflation rate was 2.7%, above the 2% target; CPI is slightly higher, showing "stubborn" signs. Recent government shutdown (43 days) has led to data delays, but the November report is expected to confirm a slow decline in inflation.

Employment: The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% (up from 4.2% last month), with non-farm payrolls adding only 220,000 (far below the expected 790,000), indicating a cooling labor market. This supports the case for rate cuts, but is not enough to outweigh inflation concerns.

GDP: The annualized growth of real GDP in the third quarter of 2025 was 2.1%, overall robust, but uncertainty in the fourth quarter has increased (affected by immigration slowdown and government shutdown).

Overall, the likelihood of a rate cut in December has shifted from a "high probability event" to a "fifty-fifty chance."

#代币化热潮

Friends, Singapore in 2025 is no longer referred to as 'the most suitable place in Asia for cryptocurrency'; it has directly become the main battlefield for the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) globally.

This is not about speculation; it's about bringing Wall Street onto the blockchain.

1️⃣ The three most shocking things
- Today, MAS just officially announced: starting in 2026, they will use wholesale CBDC to settle tokenized MAS bills (which are essentially Singapore government bonds)! The three major banks, DBS, OCBC, and UOB, have secretly completed overnight borrowing tests.

- TOKEN2049 had 25,000 attendees, compared to last year when people were still discussing MEME and hundred-fold coins; this year, 90% of the breakout sessions are talking about 'tokenized government bonds, private credit, cash flow management.' Speculation has receded, institutions are entering the market, and the atmosphere has completely changed.

- Just walking into a café, the table next to you might have people from Fidelity, BlackRock, or Deutsche Bank discussing 'how to turn a $1 billion private equity fund into fractional tokens.'

2️⃣ Why Singapore?

In a word: regulation provides certainty while leaving enough room for innovation.

MAS has included stablecoins, RWA, wholesale CBDC, and anti-money laundering requirements in a clear framework and is personally leading over 40 global giants in Project Guardian.

The result is: compliant institutions are making a fortune, non-compliant players are being pushed out, and the market has directly transformed from a 'jungle' to a 'highway.'

3️⃣ A few real cases that left me astonished

- A local bank showed me their internal dashboard: the tokenized Singapore government bonds have already exceeded $1.5 billion in scale, and 100% of the buybacks and collateral are done on-chain.

- DigiFT (an MAS licensed platform) demonstrated the tokenization of corporate receivables on-site, with T+0 settlement, and interest rates directly 150 basis points lower than traditional factoring.

- I heard that a top Asian family office has already tokenized part of a commercial property into $1 fractions, selling them to retail investors in Europe…

4️⃣ The final truth
In 2021, we shouted DeFi summer, in 2024, we shout AI summer, and in 2025, Singapore directly declares:
'RWA summer has arrived, and this time, it's not retail investors; it's the wealthiest institutions in the world rushing in.'

If you still think blockchain is just about speculation, you really need to come to Singapore and see.
Here, it's no longer about 'testing the waters' for tokenization; it's about building the future financial operating system.

#USAGovernmentShutdown US Gov Shutdown Hits 39th Day: SEC Furloughs & Solana ETF Delay to 2026 – Expanded View


The US government's ongoing shutdown, now in its 39th day (starting Oct 1, 2025), has frozen federal operations due to congressional budget disputes, furloughing ~900,000 workers including most SEC staff. This "non-essential" halt means the SEC's Corporation Finance division—key for ETF reviews—is largely offline, stalling approvals for 16+ altcoin spot ETFs like Solana (SOL), XRP, Litecoin (LTC), and HBAR. Analysts now peg 2025 passage odds at just 25% on prediction markets, with SOL ETF decisions slipping into 2026 amid a backlog—potentially delaying institutional inflows by $5-10B.


Market Impact: BTC hovers at $108K-110K with miner sell-offs (1.2K BTC dumped in 24h for power costs), Fear & Greed at 22 (extreme fear), but no panic crash yet—shutdown liquidity injections ($170B/day in T-bills) provide a buffer. Short-term: If resolved by Nov 20 (60% odds), approvals flood in, sparking 8-12% BTC rebound; prolonged drag risks $100K test. Long-term: Forces CLARITY Act (SEC/CFTC split) by mid-2026, clarifying crypto as non-securities and unlocking $50B+ in ETF capital—turning chaos into mainstream adoption.

#比特币ETF资金流入激增 👍