#btc何时反弹？
In early February, Bitcoin (BTC) is currently in a phase of low-level volatility following a sharp decline, showing: a weak stabilization but not yet initiating a strong rebound.
Key support level breached: BTC has experienced a significant drop after a long period of sideways trading, breaking through multiple moving averages.
Bottom support: The price has stopped falling and rebounded near $75,500. Currently, the price is oscillating between $76,700 - $78,000, with some buying support in the market after the sharp decline, but the strength is limited.
Indicator pattern: The MA(7) moving average (yellow line) has crossed below the long-term moving average, forming a “death cross” pattern, and the current K line is still blocked by short-term moving average resistance above.
The main trigger for this “bloodbath” drop:
Federal Reserve personnel changes: Trump has nominated **Kevin Warsh** to be the next chairman of the Federal Reserve. Since Warsh is seen as a “hawkish” figure (leaning towards tightening policies), market fears regarding his potential reduction of the balance sheet after taking office have led to a stronger dollar and a sell-off in cryptocurrencies.
Commodity linkage: At the end of January, silver dropped over 25%, and gold dropped over 8%. This widespread decline in global safe-haven assets triggered a liquidity panic, and Bitcoin was not spared.
Why did gold, silver, U.S. stocks, and cryptocurrencies collectively experience a “bloodbath”?
1️⃣ Cash reserves have dropped to a freezing point.
The cash allocation ratio of global fund managers has fallen to a historic low of 3.2%. This means that large institutions are already “fully invested,” leaving no spare cash to push the market higher or to buy in at the bottom.
2️⃣ Retail investors have become the last “sucker.”
Recently, the main buying force for ETFs has switched to retail investors, and institutional incremental buying has long been exhausted. When the market is in a state of “very little cash, very high positions,” any slight movement can trigger a violent shake.
3️⃣ Switching from “adding positions” to “survival” mode.
Stimulated by macro negative factors (such as Federal Reserve personnel changes), high volatility has triggered the risk control models of institutions. Due to a lack of funds to supplement margins, institutions are forced to sell the most liquid assets (gold, silver, BTC, ETH) to relieve pressure.
This is a passive exit, not an active bearish stance. The key moving forward will be the flow of ETF funds: if retail investors also start to cut losses and exit, the downward trend will continue; if it’s just deleveraging, the deep pit created is an opportunity.
