#下任美联储主席会是谁？

1. January Interest Rate Decision: Pressing the "Pause Button"

The Federal Reserve announced on January 28 that it would maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, ending three consecutive interest rate cuts previously.

Internal Disagreement: Although most members support maintaining the status quo, Board members **Waller and Miran** voted against, advocating for a continued rate cut of 25 basis points.

Powell's Position: In the press conference, he described the U.S. economy as "robust," the unemployment rate has stabilized, and he believes that tariff-driven inflation is transitory, expecting it to peak and decline within the year. He did not commit to the pace of future rate cuts, emphasizing that everything depends on data.

2. Successor Uncertainty: Trump is About to Reveal

As Powell's term as chairman will end in May this year, the next nominee has become a focal point:

Announcement Timing: President Trump has made it clear that he plans to officially announce the nominee for the next Federal Reserve chairman on January 30 at local time (tonight to tomorrow morning in Beijing).

Popular Candidates: Market rumors include BlackRock executive Rick Rieder, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh, White House advisor Kevin Hassett, and current board member Waller.

3. Powell's "Farewell Gift" and Controversy

Against the backdrop of increasing political pressure, Powell's recent statements have been filled with a sense of defending independence:

Advice to Successor: Powell bluntly stated at the press conference that his advice to the successor is: "Stay away from politics, do not get involved in electoral politics."

Legal Issues: Powell is currently facing a criminal investigation by the Department of Justice regarding testimony related to the Federal Reserve building renovation project. He publicly called the investigation an "excuse," aimed at the Fed's failure to comply with the President's desire for rate cuts.

Future Status: Powell has not decided whether to continue as a Federal Reserve governor after his chairman term ends in May (his governor term lasts until 2028). Some analysts believe that if the White House pressure is too great, he may choose to remain as a governor to defend the Fed's independence.