marinmyx
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#非农意外强劲 January non-farm payroll data for the United States (published on February 11, Beijing time, corresponding to the report dated February 11, 2026) was indeed surprisingly strong, completely exceeding the market's gloomy expectations, giving the year 2026 a 'good start'.
Market Immediate Reaction
- US Dollar: Short-term surge (the dollar index once rose over 50 points), but gave back some gains towards the end, closing slightly up.
- US Treasury Yield: Jumped (the two-year yield once reached a one-week high).
- Gold: Short-term plunge of nearly $40 (due to cooling interest rate cut expectations), but closed up due to safe-haven buying at the end.
- Non-US Currencies: Euro/Pound/AUD and others generally saw short-term declines.
- US Stocks: Opened high and then fluctuated, with many indices showing a 'strong start but weak finish' trend (strong data instead raised concerns about a more hawkish Fed).
Impact on Federal Reserve Policy
This data essentially breaks the pessimistic narrative of an impending collapse in the labor market, with most institutions believing that:
- The Federal Reserve is very likely to remain on hold in the short term (at least until mid-year).
- The market has pushed back the timing of the first rate cut in 2026 from June to July (the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a June rate cut has dropped below 50%).
- Policies from the Trump administration (tariffs, immigration restrictions, government layoffs, etc.) are still dragging down, but resilience in sectors like healthcare/construction exceeds expectations, showing the economy is not yet at the 'hard landing' edge.
In summary: The non-farm payroll data was surprisingly strong, but whether it is seen as 'a one-time seasonal rebound + structural support' or a 'trend reversal' still requires more data for confirmation. If employment in 2026 can maintain a pace of 70,000 to 100,000 per month, the Fed's room for rate cuts this year will be significantly reduced; if it falls again, dovish rhetoric will return.
Market Immediate Reaction
- US Dollar: Short-term surge (the dollar index once rose over 50 points), but gave back some gains towards the end, closing slightly up.
- US Treasury Yield: Jumped (the two-year yield once reached a one-week high).
- Gold: Short-term plunge of nearly $40 (due to cooling interest rate cut expectations), but closed up due to safe-haven buying at the end.
- Non-US Currencies: Euro/Pound/AUD and others generally saw short-term declines.
- US Stocks: Opened high and then fluctuated, with many indices showing a 'strong start but weak finish' trend (strong data instead raised concerns about a more hawkish Fed).
Impact on Federal Reserve Policy
This data essentially breaks the pessimistic narrative of an impending collapse in the labor market, with most institutions believing that:
- The Federal Reserve is very likely to remain on hold in the short term (at least until mid-year).
- The market has pushed back the timing of the first rate cut in 2026 from June to July (the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a June rate cut has dropped below 50%).
- Policies from the Trump administration (tariffs, immigration restrictions, government layoffs, etc.) are still dragging down, but resilience in sectors like healthcare/construction exceeds expectations, showing the economy is not yet at the 'hard landing' edge.
In summary: The non-farm payroll data was surprisingly strong, but whether it is seen as 'a one-time seasonal rebound + structural support' or a 'trend reversal' still requires more data for confirmation. If employment in 2026 can maintain a pace of 70,000 to 100,000 per month, the Fed's room for rate cuts this year will be significantly reduced; if it falls again, dovish rhetoric will return.
#易理华割肉清仓 - Average buying price: about $3100-3180 (mainly leveraged long positions at high points from late 2025 to January 2026).
- Average selling price: around $2050-2100 (some sold as low as $1500-1800 without considering costs).
- Loss scale: mainstream data statistics show a loss of $688 million to $734 million (approximately 5 billion RMB), nearly wiping out over 300 million+ profits from the last bull market and incurring a loss of principal. The entire liquidation process was mainly completed within 6-8 days, with the last transfer of 534 ETH to Binance leaving only a small amount on-chain (0.165 ETH).
- Reason: ETH plummeted over 40%-46% from its peak (at one point crashing to the $1500-2000 range), compounded by leverage and large positions, facing forced liquidation risks. To protect the principal and LP funds, he had no choice but to cut losses to deleverage, even forming a vicious cycle of "selling more as it falls." Some analyses suggest he may have signed a bottom guarantee agreement with investors, leading to the necessity to liquidate at all costs.
This incident caused a stir in the cryptocurrency circle:
- Many joked, "When Boss Yi cuts losses, the market hits the bottom" (a contrarian indicator is "flashing").
- Others lamented, "Cutting losses under the gaze of the entire network is a form of torture," after all, he is a veteran who has experienced multiple cycles, yet this time he went all in at high leverage, path dependence (after making 300 million+ in the last round of leverage, he confidently expanded his position threefold).
- Meanwhile, BTC also experienced its largest weekly decline in three years (halving from a high of 120,000 to 60-70,000), and other big players like Arthur Hayes also cut losses/left the market, with the market fear and greed index dropping to a very low level (7-13).
Current market follow-up (as of February 11, 2026):
- BTC has violently rebounded past 71,000, and ETH has also recovered to $2100, but overall it is still in a high volatility + panic cleansing phase.
- Yi Lihua himself stated in a post that "the bear market is the best time for layout," implying he has liquidated and is waiting for the next round.
- There is significant division in the community: some feel this is a complete surrender/liquidation signal, while others believe that after excessive leverage is cleaned up, it will be healthier (a classic moment of "others fear, I am greedy").
In summary: There is no deity in the cryptocurrency world that never cuts losses, this time even the "mystical beacon" suffered a loss and exited the market, reminding everyone—high leverage + heavy-position faith = double-edged sword, surviving is more important than how much you earn. Don't go all in, don't be "Yi Lihua's opponent," the first principle of a bear market is to protect the principal.
- Average selling price: around $2050-2100 (some sold as low as $1500-1800 without considering costs).
- Loss scale: mainstream data statistics show a loss of $688 million to $734 million (approximately 5 billion RMB), nearly wiping out over 300 million+ profits from the last bull market and incurring a loss of principal. The entire liquidation process was mainly completed within 6-8 days, with the last transfer of 534 ETH to Binance leaving only a small amount on-chain (0.165 ETH).
- Reason: ETH plummeted over 40%-46% from its peak (at one point crashing to the $1500-2000 range), compounded by leverage and large positions, facing forced liquidation risks. To protect the principal and LP funds, he had no choice but to cut losses to deleverage, even forming a vicious cycle of "selling more as it falls." Some analyses suggest he may have signed a bottom guarantee agreement with investors, leading to the necessity to liquidate at all costs.
This incident caused a stir in the cryptocurrency circle:
- Many joked, "When Boss Yi cuts losses, the market hits the bottom" (a contrarian indicator is "flashing").
- Others lamented, "Cutting losses under the gaze of the entire network is a form of torture," after all, he is a veteran who has experienced multiple cycles, yet this time he went all in at high leverage, path dependence (after making 300 million+ in the last round of leverage, he confidently expanded his position threefold).
- Meanwhile, BTC also experienced its largest weekly decline in three years (halving from a high of 120,000 to 60-70,000), and other big players like Arthur Hayes also cut losses/left the market, with the market fear and greed index dropping to a very low level (7-13).
Current market follow-up (as of February 11, 2026):
- BTC has violently rebounded past 71,000, and ETH has also recovered to $2100, but overall it is still in a high volatility + panic cleansing phase.
- Yi Lihua himself stated in a post that "the bear market is the best time for layout," implying he has liquidated and is waiting for the next round.
- There is significant division in the community: some feel this is a complete surrender/liquidation signal, while others believe that after excessive leverage is cleaned up, it will be healthier (a classic moment of "others fear, I am greedy").
In summary: There is no deity in the cryptocurrency world that never cuts losses, this time even the "mystical beacon" suffered a loss and exited the market, reminding everyone—high leverage + heavy-position faith = double-edged sword, surviving is more important than how much you earn. Don't go all in, don't be "Yi Lihua's opponent," the first principle of a bear market is to protect the principal.
#加密市场反弹
- Bitcoin: The day before (around February 5-6) plummeted to a low of $60,000 (the lowest since October 2024), with a drop of over 15% at one point within 24 hours, triggering forced liquidations of over $2-2.6 billion (mainly long liquidations). It then quickly rebounded, reaching a high of around $71,000-71,600, currently hovering in the $68,000-70,500 range, with a 24-hour increase of about 10-14%, basically recovering most of the previous day's losses. This is considered one of the most severe single-day rebounds in the past three years.
- Ethereum (ETH): Initially dropped below the $1,750 low, then rebounded to break through $2,000, currently around $1,900-2,000+. The 24-hour increase is about 13%.
- Other mainstream coins: XRP rebounded to 18% (now about 12%), and altcoins like Solana also saw rebounds of over 10%. The overall cryptocurrency market's total market value has rebounded from its low, but it has still shrunk significantly compared to last October's peak (about 40-50% retraction).
Main features of this rebound:
- Technical oversold recovery: Bitcoin has shown strong support around $60,000, and indicators like RSI entered deep oversold territory before a V-shaped reversal.
- Short covering after leveraged liquidation: After massive long liquidations, short sellers taking profits pushed prices up quickly.
- Risk asset correlation: U.S. tech stocks and precious metals rebounded in sync, bringing sentiment recovery to the crypto market.
However, several risk signals need to be noted:
- Funding rates remain negative → indicating that bearish sentiment in the derivatives market has not completely faded, with many maintaining short positions. This rebound is viewed by some analysts as an "irrational/emotional recovery" or "technical rebound," with sustainability in doubt.
- Some institutions predict: In the short term, it may consolidate/surge slightly, but in the medium term (even this summer), there remains the possibility of dropping to the $50,000-40,000 range, especially if global risk appetite continues to deteriorate.
- Continued net outflows from spot ETFs + low liquidity → amplifying volatility, making sharp fluctuations easy to occur.
Overall, these past two days have indeed been a standard "strong rebound after a bloodbath," with market sentiment quickly shifting from extreme panic to greed. However, whether it has truly bottomed out and initiated a new trend still needs to be observed, particularly regarding whether the $60,000-65,000 support holds firm, as well as whether funding rates/on-chain data turn positive. Currently, it seems more like a rebound from overselling rather than a confirmation of a bull market.
- Bitcoin: The day before (around February 5-6) plummeted to a low of $60,000 (the lowest since October 2024), with a drop of over 15% at one point within 24 hours, triggering forced liquidations of over $2-2.6 billion (mainly long liquidations). It then quickly rebounded, reaching a high of around $71,000-71,600, currently hovering in the $68,000-70,500 range, with a 24-hour increase of about 10-14%, basically recovering most of the previous day's losses. This is considered one of the most severe single-day rebounds in the past three years.
- Ethereum (ETH): Initially dropped below the $1,750 low, then rebounded to break through $2,000, currently around $1,900-2,000+. The 24-hour increase is about 13%.
- Other mainstream coins: XRP rebounded to 18% (now about 12%), and altcoins like Solana also saw rebounds of over 10%. The overall cryptocurrency market's total market value has rebounded from its low, but it has still shrunk significantly compared to last October's peak (about 40-50% retraction).
Main features of this rebound:
- Technical oversold recovery: Bitcoin has shown strong support around $60,000, and indicators like RSI entered deep oversold territory before a V-shaped reversal.
- Short covering after leveraged liquidation: After massive long liquidations, short sellers taking profits pushed prices up quickly.
- Risk asset correlation: U.S. tech stocks and precious metals rebounded in sync, bringing sentiment recovery to the crypto market.
However, several risk signals need to be noted:
- Funding rates remain negative → indicating that bearish sentiment in the derivatives market has not completely faded, with many maintaining short positions. This rebound is viewed by some analysts as an "irrational/emotional recovery" or "technical rebound," with sustainability in doubt.
- Some institutions predict: In the short term, it may consolidate/surge slightly, but in the medium term (even this summer), there remains the possibility of dropping to the $50,000-40,000 range, especially if global risk appetite continues to deteriorate.
- Continued net outflows from spot ETFs + low liquidity → amplifying volatility, making sharp fluctuations easy to occur.
Overall, these past two days have indeed been a standard "strong rebound after a bloodbath," with market sentiment quickly shifting from extreme panic to greed. However, whether it has truly bottomed out and initiated a new trend still needs to be observed, particularly regarding whether the $60,000-65,000 support holds firm, as well as whether funding rates/on-chain data turn positive. Currently, it seems more like a rebound from overselling rather than a confirmation of a bull market.
#BTC何时反弹？ Currently (February 5, 2026), Bitcoin (BTC) price is fluctuating sharply in the range of $68,000–$72,000, having touched around $66,000–$67,000 multiple times today (some sources indicate a low of about $66k), with a daily decline of over 5–7%, continuing the downward trend since the $80k+ peak at the end of January.
Why is it still falling?
- The last two weeks have seen almost a straight-line decline, lacking significant rebounds, mainly due to leveraged liquidations + risk aversion (geopolitical issues, economic uncertainty, weakness in US stocks/Nasdaq).
- Continuous outflows from spot ETFs, profit-taking by long-term holders, and thin liquidity amplifying volatility.
- Market sentiment is extremely fearful (Fear & Greed Index has dropped to around 15, indicating "extreme fear"), many are asking, "Why hasn't it rebounded after falling more than $30,000?" — the answer is that demand has temporarily dried up, and there aren't enough strong buyers to absorb the selling pressure.
When might a short-term rebound occur?
Most traders and analysts believe that a technical rebound is likely in the short term (within a few days to 1–2 weeks) for the following reasons:
- RSI has entered the extremely oversold zone (daily/weekly RSI is near or below 20), historically, such positions often see at least one significant oversold rebound.
- Key support levels are $62k–$67k (some see $56k–$62k as deeper), and if a volume spike signaling a stop to the decline forms here, common rebound targets are $72k–$78k, or even $80k–$85k (if liquidity improves).
- Chinese buying and some institutions testing the waters at lower levels have also seen rapid increases around $66k.
However, the rebound is likely just a dead cat bounce (relief rally), not a trend reversal. Many expect further lows after the rebound.
Why is it still falling?
- The last two weeks have seen almost a straight-line decline, lacking significant rebounds, mainly due to leveraged liquidations + risk aversion (geopolitical issues, economic uncertainty, weakness in US stocks/Nasdaq).
- Continuous outflows from spot ETFs, profit-taking by long-term holders, and thin liquidity amplifying volatility.
- Market sentiment is extremely fearful (Fear & Greed Index has dropped to around 15, indicating "extreme fear"), many are asking, "Why hasn't it rebounded after falling more than $30,000?" — the answer is that demand has temporarily dried up, and there aren't enough strong buyers to absorb the selling pressure.
When might a short-term rebound occur?
Most traders and analysts believe that a technical rebound is likely in the short term (within a few days to 1–2 weeks) for the following reasons:
- RSI has entered the extremely oversold zone (daily/weekly RSI is near or below 20), historically, such positions often see at least one significant oversold rebound.
- Key support levels are $62k–$67k (some see $56k–$62k as deeper), and if a volume spike signaling a stop to the decline forms here, common rebound targets are $72k–$78k, or even $80k–$85k (if liquidity improves).
- Chinese buying and some institutions testing the waters at lower levels have also seen rapid increases around $66k.
However, the rebound is likely just a dead cat bounce (relief rally), not a trend reversal. Many expect further lows after the rebound.
#易理华旗下TrendResearch减仓 - Large-scale reduction of positions starting from February 1, 2026.
- As of around February 4: A cumulative reduction of approximately 153,500 ETH, with an average price of about 2,294 USD, a total value of approximately 352 million USD, used to repay about 266 million USDT in debt.
- After the reduction, the remaining position is about 498,000 ETH (valued at around 1.11 billion USD, depending on the ETH price at the time).
- The average cost of the position is approximately 3,180 USD (some sources claim the actual cost of building the position is around 3,150 USD).
- The total loss scale is about 605 million USD (realized loss of 136 million + unrealized loss of 469 million).
- The liquidation price range has dropped to 1,685–1,855 USD (mainly concentrated around 1,800 USD, with some community estimates to 1,685–1,866 USD).
- Remaining leveraged borrowing is about 743 million USDT (some reports indicate it continued to drop to around 793 million, but is also further reducing positions).
- From February 2 to 4, multiple transfers of ETH to Binance (such as single transfers of 20,000, 15,000, 35,000, etc.), with a total transfer of over 50,000 ETH within 24 hours, suspected to continue selling for liquidation purposes.
- Latest developments (around February 5): The position further reduced to about 533,000, with the liquidation price dropping to around 1,792 USD, but still viewed by the market as a "death spiral" risk (the more it sells, the more it falls, and the more it falls, the more it has to sell in a vicious cycle).
- As of around February 4: A cumulative reduction of approximately 153,500 ETH, with an average price of about 2,294 USD, a total value of approximately 352 million USD, used to repay about 266 million USDT in debt.
- After the reduction, the remaining position is about 498,000 ETH (valued at around 1.11 billion USD, depending on the ETH price at the time).
- The average cost of the position is approximately 3,180 USD (some sources claim the actual cost of building the position is around 3,150 USD).
- The total loss scale is about 605 million USD (realized loss of 136 million + unrealized loss of 469 million).
- The liquidation price range has dropped to 1,685–1,855 USD (mainly concentrated around 1,800 USD, with some community estimates to 1,685–1,866 USD).
- Remaining leveraged borrowing is about 743 million USDT (some reports indicate it continued to drop to around 793 million, but is also further reducing positions).
- From February 2 to 4, multiple transfers of ETH to Binance (such as single transfers of 20,000, 15,000, 35,000, etc.), with a total transfer of over 50,000 ETH within 24 hours, suspected to continue selling for liquidation purposes.
- Latest developments (around February 5): The position further reduced to about 533,000, with the liquidation price dropping to around 1,792 USD, but still viewed by the market as a "death spiral" risk (the more it sells, the more it falls, and the more it falls, the more it has to sell in a vicious cycle).
Epstein
#爱泼斯坦案烧向币圈 Recently (from late January to early February 2026), the U.S. Department of Justice massively unsealed about **3 million pages** of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, and this newly disclosed material immediately sparked a controversy in the cryptocurrency circle, provoking discussions in the Chinese community and platforms like Binance Square about "the Epstein case burning into the crypto world."
The core highlights focus on the secret connections between Epstein and the early cryptocurrency ecosystem, mainly including the following points:
1. **Investment in Coinbase**
In December 2014, Epstein invested approximately **$3 million** in Coinbase through Brock Pierce (co-founder of Tether, founder of Blockchain Capital, and former chairman of the Bitcoin Foundation) and his venture capital channels (documents show the exact figure is $3,001,000). At that time, Coinbase was still an early project, and this investment indicated that Epstein had deeply engaged in the pre-IPO stage of cryptocurrency exchanges.
The core highlights focus on the secret connections between Epstein and the early cryptocurrency ecosystem, mainly including the following points:
1. **Investment in Coinbase**
In December 2014, Epstein invested approximately **$3 million** in Coinbase through Brock Pierce (co-founder of Tether, founder of Blockchain Capital, and former chairman of the Bitcoin Foundation) and his venture capital channels (documents show the exact figure is $3,001,000). At that time, Coinbase was still an early project, and this investment indicated that Epstein had deeply engaged in the pre-IPO stage of cryptocurrency exchanges.
#美国政府停摆 - Shutdown Start Time: Eastern Time, January 31 at 00:01 (after midnight on January 30), funding for multiple federal departments has run out, leading to a suspension of non-essential work.
- Scope of the Shutdown: This is a partial/technical shutdown affecting major departments such as the Department of Defense, the State Department, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Department of Education, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and the Department of the Treasury (these departments cover the vast majority of federally discretionary spending).
Departments that have already been funded through annual appropriations (such as the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Energy, the Department of the Interior, the Department of Justice, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and legislative branches) are not affected and continue to operate normally.
- Expected Duration: Anticipated to be a short shutdown (weekend + Monday), expected to end as soon as Monday (February 2) or within a few days, as the House is likely to quickly pass the bill approved by the Senate after reconvening on Monday. The risk of a long-term full shutdown is low, but uncertainty remains.
Why is there a shutdown?
- Funding for some departments in fiscal year 2025 (2026 appropriations) is set to expire on January 30, 2026, as extended by a temporary bill passed in November 2025.
- The Senate passed a package of appropriations bills on the evening of January 30 (a few hours before the funding ran out):
- Provides full-year funding for most remaining departments until September 30, 2026.
- Provides two weeks of temporary funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS, including ICE immigration enforcement) as a compromise.
- However, the House is currently in recess this week, and members must return on Monday to vote on the bill, leading to a “technical funding gap” over the weekend.
- Core disagreement arises from: The incident in Minneapolis earlier this month in which federal law enforcement officers (ICE/border patrol) shot and killed two U.S. citizens, prompting strong demands from Democrats for accountability and reform of the use of force standards for DHS/ICE, even threatening not to pass a bill that includes DHS funding. The Republican party refuses to make significant changes, leading to a delay in negotiations.
- Scope of the Shutdown: This is a partial/technical shutdown affecting major departments such as the Department of Defense, the State Department, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the Department of Education, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the Department of Labor, the Department of Transportation, and the Department of the Treasury (these departments cover the vast majority of federally discretionary spending).
Departments that have already been funded through annual appropriations (such as the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Commerce, the Department of Energy, the Department of the Interior, the Department of Justice, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and legislative branches) are not affected and continue to operate normally.
- Expected Duration: Anticipated to be a short shutdown (weekend + Monday), expected to end as soon as Monday (February 2) or within a few days, as the House is likely to quickly pass the bill approved by the Senate after reconvening on Monday. The risk of a long-term full shutdown is low, but uncertainty remains.
Why is there a shutdown?
- Funding for some departments in fiscal year 2025 (2026 appropriations) is set to expire on January 30, 2026, as extended by a temporary bill passed in November 2025.
- The Senate passed a package of appropriations bills on the evening of January 30 (a few hours before the funding ran out):
- Provides full-year funding for most remaining departments until September 30, 2026.
- Provides two weeks of temporary funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS, including ICE immigration enforcement) as a compromise.
- However, the House is currently in recess this week, and members must return on Monday to vote on the bill, leading to a “technical funding gap” over the weekend.
- Core disagreement arises from: The incident in Minneapolis earlier this month in which federal law enforcement officers (ICE/border patrol) shot and killed two U.S. citizens, prompting strong demands from Democrats for accountability and reform of the use of force standards for DHS/ICE, even threatening not to pass a bill that includes DHS funding. The Republican party refuses to make significant changes, leading to a delay in negotiations.
#下任美联储主席会是谁？ Current Most Popular Candidates and Probabilities (Based on January 29 Evening Prediction Market)
- Kevin Warsh: Currently the most favored in the betting market (Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.) with a probability of about 80%-87%, making him the overwhelming favorite. Several media outlets and internal sources indicate that Trump leans towards him.
- Rick Rieder: A few days ago, he briefly led (at nearly 50%), but has significantly dropped in recent days, currently around **10%**.
- Kevin Hassett: Initially favored, but Trump has suggested he prefers him to remain in his current position, with a currently low probability (around 3%).
- Christopher Waller: Has been on the short list but with low probability.
Others occasionally mentioned but largely out of the race or marginalized include: Michelle Bowman, etc.
Brief Background
Trump's team (including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent) has gone through multiple rounds of selection, ultimately leaving these 4 main candidates. They all support significant interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's stance. Warsh's advantages include: former Federal Reserve experience + long-term support from Trump + connections in Wall Street and Silicon Valley (close relationships with Peter Thiel, Stan Druckenmiller, etc.).
The announcement tomorrow morning is almost certain to end this months-long speculation. After the nomination, the Senate confirmation process may take several weeks to months, but given the Republican control of the Senate, the probability of passage is relatively high.
Summary: It is highly likely to be Kevin Warsh, but we need to wait for Trump to officially speak tomorrow.
- Kevin Warsh: Currently the most favored in the betting market (Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.) with a probability of about 80%-87%, making him the overwhelming favorite. Several media outlets and internal sources indicate that Trump leans towards him.
- Rick Rieder: A few days ago, he briefly led (at nearly 50%), but has significantly dropped in recent days, currently around **10%**.
- Kevin Hassett: Initially favored, but Trump has suggested he prefers him to remain in his current position, with a currently low probability (around 3%).
- Christopher Waller: Has been on the short list but with low probability.
Others occasionally mentioned but largely out of the race or marginalized include: Michelle Bowman, etc.
Brief Background
Trump's team (including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent) has gone through multiple rounds of selection, ultimately leaving these 4 main candidates. They all support significant interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's stance. Warsh's advantages include: former Federal Reserve experience + long-term support from Trump + connections in Wall Street and Silicon Valley (close relationships with Peter Thiel, Stan Druckenmiller, etc.).
The announcement tomorrow morning is almost certain to end this months-long speculation. After the nomination, the Senate confirmation process may take several weeks to months, but given the Republican control of the Senate, the probability of passage is relatively high.
Summary: It is highly likely to be Kevin Warsh, but we need to wait for Trump to officially speak tomorrow.
#金价再冲高位 Recent Performance Summary:
- After the market opened today, there was a rapid surge, with significant intraday volatility (low point around 5,430–5,450, high point approaching 5,600+)
- In the short term, multiple key levels have been broken, and the year-to-date increase has been quite dramatic (some statistics show an increase of over 25–30% this year, nearly doubling within a year)
- Silver has also shown strong performance, with even higher increases at times (some periods saw 4–6%)
#美联储维持利率不变 Major Market Driving Factors (Current Mainstream Interpretation):
1. The US Dollar Index continues to weaken: The Dollar Index has recently fallen to a multi-year low, providing clear support for gold.
2. Geopolitical & Policy Uncertainty: Expectations regarding Trump-related policies (tariffs, trade, technology wars, etc.) are still evolving, with a resurgence in demand for safe-haven assets amid fluctuations in market risk appetite.
3. Federal Reserve Path Expectations: Although interest rates have been maintained recently, the market is still pricing in future rate cuts, and a decline in real interest rates is favorable for gold.
4. Central Banks & ETFs Continue Buying: The pace of gold purchases by central banks globally has not ceased, and ETF inflows are also accelerating.
5. Technical Aspect: The bullish trend is very strong, continuously breaking historical highs after the breakout, short-term overbought but momentum remains sufficient.
- After the market opened today, there was a rapid surge, with significant intraday volatility (low point around 5,430–5,450, high point approaching 5,600+)
- In the short term, multiple key levels have been broken, and the year-to-date increase has been quite dramatic (some statistics show an increase of over 25–30% this year, nearly doubling within a year)
- Silver has also shown strong performance, with even higher increases at times (some periods saw 4–6%)
#美联储维持利率不变 Major Market Driving Factors (Current Mainstream Interpretation):
1. The US Dollar Index continues to weaken: The Dollar Index has recently fallen to a multi-year low, providing clear support for gold.
2. Geopolitical & Policy Uncertainty: Expectations regarding Trump-related policies (tariffs, trade, technology wars, etc.) are still evolving, with a resurgence in demand for safe-haven assets amid fluctuations in market risk appetite.
3. Federal Reserve Path Expectations: Although interest rates have been maintained recently, the market is still pricing in future rate cuts, and a decline in real interest rates is favorable for gold.
4. Central Banks & ETFs Continue Buying: The pace of gold purchases by central banks globally has not ceased, and ETF inflows are also accelerating.
5. Technical Aspect: The bullish trend is very strong, continuously breaking historical highs after the breakout, short-term overbought but momentum remains sufficient.
#代币化白银热潮 The Core Driving Factors of the Silver Boom (2025-2026)
1. Explosive Growth in Industrial Demand (accounting for over 60% of total demand):
- Photovoltaics: Each solar panel uses about 15-20g of silver, with demand increasing more than 1.6 times over the past 5 years, and silver used in photovoltaics is approaching 200 million ounces by 2024-2025.
- New Energy Vehicles: Each electric vehicle uses 25-50g of silver (1.5-2 times more than gasoline vehicles), with demand continuously rising.
- AI/Computing Infrastructure: AI servers, 5G base stations, high-frequency PCBs, and chip packaging require silver with extremely high conductivity (the highest conductivity metal on Earth). Many joke that "AI is melting silver," with data centers and supercomputers becoming new "silver mines."
2. Severe Rigidity on the Supply Side:
- Global silver has faced structural deficits for 5 consecutive years, with the gap reaching a record in 2025 (close to 300 million ounces), and it is expected to continue expanding in 2026.
- Over 70% of silver is a byproduct of lead-zinc-copper mining, making it difficult to rapidly increase production regardless of price.
- Inventory levels are extremely low, COMEX/LBMA spot selling is scarce, and there is significant pressure for physical delivery, leading to a serious decoupling between "paper silver" and physical silver.
- China will implement silver export controls starting in 2026, further tightening global liquidity.
3. Financial + Safe-Haven Attributes Combined:
- Federal Reserve interest rate cuts + inflation expectations → liquidity overflows into commodities.
- Under the trend of de-dollarization, central banks/institutions are strategically accumulating silver (no longer just the "poor man's gold").
- The gold-silver ratio has significantly compressed, and silver is entering a strong recovery phase relative to gold.
4. Market Sentiment and Short Squeeze:
- Increased futures leverage, paper silver credit crisis → bullish without counterparties, leading to extreme premiums.
- Physical ETF holdings have surged, with low recovery rates (silver used in photovoltaics is almost non-recyclable).
1. Explosive Growth in Industrial Demand (accounting for over 60% of total demand):
- Photovoltaics: Each solar panel uses about 15-20g of silver, with demand increasing more than 1.6 times over the past 5 years, and silver used in photovoltaics is approaching 200 million ounces by 2024-2025.
- New Energy Vehicles: Each electric vehicle uses 25-50g of silver (1.5-2 times more than gasoline vehicles), with demand continuously rising.
- AI/Computing Infrastructure: AI servers, 5G base stations, high-frequency PCBs, and chip packaging require silver with extremely high conductivity (the highest conductivity metal on Earth). Many joke that "AI is melting silver," with data centers and supercomputers becoming new "silver mines."
2. Severe Rigidity on the Supply Side:
- Global silver has faced structural deficits for 5 consecutive years, with the gap reaching a record in 2025 (close to 300 million ounces), and it is expected to continue expanding in 2026.
- Over 70% of silver is a byproduct of lead-zinc-copper mining, making it difficult to rapidly increase production regardless of price.
- Inventory levels are extremely low, COMEX/LBMA spot selling is scarce, and there is significant pressure for physical delivery, leading to a serious decoupling between "paper silver" and physical silver.
- China will implement silver export controls starting in 2026, further tightening global liquidity.
3. Financial + Safe-Haven Attributes Combined:
- Federal Reserve interest rate cuts + inflation expectations → liquidity overflows into commodities.
- Under the trend of de-dollarization, central banks/institutions are strategically accumulating silver (no longer just the "poor man's gold").
- The gold-silver ratio has significantly compressed, and silver is entering a strong recovery phase relative to gold.
4. Market Sentiment and Short Squeeze:
- Increased futures leverage, paper silver credit crisis → bullish without counterparties, leading to extreme premiums.
- Physical ETF holdings have surged, with low recovery rates (silver used in photovoltaics is almost non-recyclable).
#Strategy增持比特币 At this stage, do not catch the bottom, do not catch the bottom, the big waterfall is coming, the fixed investment range is 50,000 to 70,000.
#美联储利率决议 - This resolution is very likely to maintain the interest rate unchanged: the federal funds target rate remains in the range of 3.50%-3.75% (the last adjustment was a 25bp cut in December 2025).
- Market Probability:
- CME FedWatch tool shows: probability of maintaining unchanged is about 97%, probability of a 25bp cut is only about 2-3%.
- Almost no institution expects a rate cut this time, the consensus is to 'stay put' (pause).
- Reasons:
- In September, October, and December 2025, there were three consecutive 25bp cuts, totaling a 75bp reduction, and the policy has clearly shifted to easing.
- Recent employment data has improved (the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% after the December non-farm payrolls, wage growth is steady), and the labor market has not further deteriorated.
- Inflation is still slightly above the target (core PCE around 2.7-2.9%), and it may spike again in the first quarter due to seasonal/adjustment factors, the Federal Reserve needs to observe more data.
- Powell stated in December: 'We are in a good position now, we can wait and see how the economy evolves.'
- Trump’s Pressure:
- Trump has publicly demanded that the Federal Reserve cut rates faster, even hinting at intervention in its independence. Powell recently made a rare public rebuttal, emphasizing the Federal Reserve's independence.
- Personnel Turmoil:
- Chairman Powell's term ends in May 2026, and the nomination for a new chairman is already underway.
- The White House's attempts to dismiss certain board members (like Lisa Cook) have gone to court, putting the Federal Reserve's independence to the test.
- Various analyses suggest that while this resolution itself is 'uneventful', if Powell strongly defends independence at the press conference, or if news of a new chairman candidate emerges from the White House at the same time, it may trigger greater market volatility.
- Potential Market Reactions:
- Maintaining unchanged + Powell's neutral dovish stance → U.S. stocks rise slightly, the dollar weakens slightly, long-term bond yields decrease slightly.
- If Powell's tone is unexpectedly hawkish (emphasizing inflation risks) or if political pressure is evident → the dollar rebounds, U.S. stocks come under pressure.
- Market Probability:
- CME FedWatch tool shows: probability of maintaining unchanged is about 97%, probability of a 25bp cut is only about 2-3%.
- Almost no institution expects a rate cut this time, the consensus is to 'stay put' (pause).
- Reasons:
- In September, October, and December 2025, there were three consecutive 25bp cuts, totaling a 75bp reduction, and the policy has clearly shifted to easing.
- Recent employment data has improved (the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% after the December non-farm payrolls, wage growth is steady), and the labor market has not further deteriorated.
- Inflation is still slightly above the target (core PCE around 2.7-2.9%), and it may spike again in the first quarter due to seasonal/adjustment factors, the Federal Reserve needs to observe more data.
- Powell stated in December: 'We are in a good position now, we can wait and see how the economy evolves.'
- Trump’s Pressure:
- Trump has publicly demanded that the Federal Reserve cut rates faster, even hinting at intervention in its independence. Powell recently made a rare public rebuttal, emphasizing the Federal Reserve's independence.
- Personnel Turmoil:
- Chairman Powell's term ends in May 2026, and the nomination for a new chairman is already underway.
- The White House's attempts to dismiss certain board members (like Lisa Cook) have gone to court, putting the Federal Reserve's independence to the test.
- Various analyses suggest that while this resolution itself is 'uneventful', if Powell strongly defends independence at the press conference, or if news of a new chairman candidate emerges from the White House at the same time, it may trigger greater market volatility.
- Potential Market Reactions:
- Maintaining unchanged + Powell's neutral dovish stance → U.S. stocks rise slightly, the dollar weakens slightly, long-term bond yields decrease slightly.
- If Powell's tone is unexpectedly hawkish (emphasizing inflation risks) or if political pressure is evident → the dollar rebounds, U.S. stocks come under pressure.
#韩国丢失遭扣押比特币 A major crash is coming, BTC is expected to reach 50,000 to 70,000, be aware of the risks ⚠️
#Scroll联创X账户被盗 stupid project party, stole well, last year got so many accounts and didn't give airdrop.
#美股七巨头财报
1. Apple (Apple) — AAPL
Consumer Electronics + Service Ecosystem + AI Phones/Devices
2. Microsoft (Microsoft) — MSFT
Cloud (Azure) + AI (Largest Shareholder of OpenAI) + Enterprise Software
3. NVIDIA (NVIDIA) — NVDA
AI Chip Dominator (GPU), currently often ranked first in market value
4. Amazon (Amazon) — AMZN
E-commerce + AWS Cloud + AI Infrastructure
5. Meta Platforms (Meta) — META
Social (Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp) + Metaverse/AI Advertising
6. Alphabet (Google's Parent Company) — GOOGL / GOOG
Search + YouTube + Google Cloud + AI (Gemini)
7. Tesla (Tesla) — TSLA
Electric Vehicles + Autonomous Driving + Energy + AI Robots (Optimus)
1. Apple (Apple) — AAPL
Consumer Electronics + Service Ecosystem + AI Phones/Devices
2. Microsoft (Microsoft) — MSFT
Cloud (Azure) + AI (Largest Shareholder of OpenAI) + Enterprise Software
3. NVIDIA (NVIDIA) — NVDA
AI Chip Dominator (GPU), currently often ranked first in market value
4. Amazon (Amazon) — AMZN
E-commerce + AWS Cloud + AI Infrastructure
5. Meta Platforms (Meta) — META
Social (Facebook/Instagram/WhatsApp) + Metaverse/AI Advertising
6. Alphabet (Google's Parent Company) — GOOGL / GOOG
Search + YouTube + Google Cloud + AI (Gemini)
7. Tesla (Tesla) — TSLA
Electric Vehicles + Autonomous Driving + Energy + AI Robots (Optimus)
#vanar $VANRY Vanar (full name Vanar Chain, token is VANRY) is a Layer 1 public blockchain, currently primarily positioned as:
"AI-native" blockchain infrastructure, with a strong emphasis on deeply integrating artificial intelligence on-chain, aiming to serve the next generation of intelligent Web3 applications.
### What it mainly does (core direction)
- Provides underlying support for AI + Web3 applications
- Natively integrates AI capabilities at the protocol level (on-chain reasoning, semantic memory, AI-driven smart contracts, etc.)
- Allows dApps to perform AI reasoning directly on-chain, store semantic data, and realize smarter decentralized applications
- Particularly suitable for several scenarios:
- AI-driven applications (currently the strongest selling point)
- Gaming (especially blockchain games and metaverse-related)
- PayFi (payment finance)
- RWA (real-world asset tokenization)
- Mainstream brand/enterprise-level applications (they emphasize being friendly to traditional enterprises and low barriers to entry on-chain)
- Technically: EVM compatible + modular design + carbon neutrality + focus on low cost and high speed
"AI-native" blockchain infrastructure, with a strong emphasis on deeply integrating artificial intelligence on-chain, aiming to serve the next generation of intelligent Web3 applications.
### What it mainly does (core direction)
- Provides underlying support for AI + Web3 applications
- Natively integrates AI capabilities at the protocol level (on-chain reasoning, semantic memory, AI-driven smart contracts, etc.)
- Allows dApps to perform AI reasoning directly on-chain, store semantic data, and realize smarter decentralized applications
- Particularly suitable for several scenarios:
- AI-driven applications (currently the strongest selling point)
- Gaming (especially blockchain games and metaverse-related)
- PayFi (payment finance)
- RWA (real-world asset tokenization)
- Mainstream brand/enterprise-level applications (they emphasize being friendly to traditional enterprises and low barriers to entry on-chain)
- Technically: EVM compatible + modular design + carbon neutrality + focus on low cost and high speed
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