#非农意外强劲 January non-farm payroll data for the United States (published on February 11, Beijing time, corresponding to the report dated February 11, 2026) was indeed surprisingly strong, completely exceeding the market's gloomy expectations, giving the year 2026 a 'good start'.

Market Immediate Reaction

- US Dollar: Short-term surge (the dollar index once rose over 50 points), but gave back some gains towards the end, closing slightly up.

- US Treasury Yield: Jumped (the two-year yield once reached a one-week high).

- Gold: Short-term plunge of nearly $40 (due to cooling interest rate cut expectations), but closed up due to safe-haven buying at the end.

- Non-US Currencies: Euro/Pound/AUD and others generally saw short-term declines.

- US Stocks: Opened high and then fluctuated, with many indices showing a 'strong start but weak finish' trend (strong data instead raised concerns about a more hawkish Fed).

Impact on Federal Reserve Policy

This data essentially breaks the pessimistic narrative of an impending collapse in the labor market, with most institutions believing that:

- The Federal Reserve is very likely to remain on hold in the short term (at least until mid-year).

- The market has pushed back the timing of the first rate cut in 2026 from June to July (the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a June rate cut has dropped below 50%).

- Policies from the Trump administration (tariffs, immigration restrictions, government layoffs, etc.) are still dragging down, but resilience in sectors like healthcare/construction exceeds expectations, showing the economy is not yet at the 'hard landing' edge.

In summary: The non-farm payroll data was surprisingly strong, but whether it is seen as 'a one-time seasonal rebound + structural support' or a 'trend reversal' still requires more data for confirmation. If employment in 2026 can maintain a pace of 70,000 to 100,000 per month, the Fed's room for rate cuts this year will be significantly reduced; if it falls again, dovish rhetoric will return.