#加密市场反弹

- Bitcoin: The day before (around February 5-6) plummeted to a low of $60,000 (the lowest since October 2024), with a drop of over 15% at one point within 24 hours, triggering forced liquidations of over $2-2.6 billion (mainly long liquidations). It then quickly rebounded, reaching a high of around $71,000-71,600, currently hovering in the $68,000-70,500 range, with a 24-hour increase of about 10-14%, basically recovering most of the previous day's losses. This is considered one of the most severe single-day rebounds in the past three years.

- Ethereum (ETH): Initially dropped below the $1,750 low, then rebounded to break through $2,000, currently around $1,900-2,000+. The 24-hour increase is about 13%.

- Other mainstream coins: XRP rebounded to 18% (now about 12%), and altcoins like Solana also saw rebounds of over 10%. The overall cryptocurrency market's total market value has rebounded from its low, but it has still shrunk significantly compared to last October's peak (about 40-50% retraction).

Main features of this rebound:

- Technical oversold recovery: Bitcoin has shown strong support around $60,000, and indicators like RSI entered deep oversold territory before a V-shaped reversal.

- Short covering after leveraged liquidation: After massive long liquidations, short sellers taking profits pushed prices up quickly.

- Risk asset correlation: U.S. tech stocks and precious metals rebounded in sync, bringing sentiment recovery to the crypto market.

However, several risk signals need to be noted:

- Funding rates remain negative → indicating that bearish sentiment in the derivatives market has not completely faded, with many maintaining short positions. This rebound is viewed by some analysts as an "irrational/emotional recovery" or "technical rebound," with sustainability in doubt.

- Some institutions predict: In the short term, it may consolidate/surge slightly, but in the medium term (even this summer), there remains the possibility of dropping to the $50,000-40,000 range, especially if global risk appetite continues to deteriorate.

- Continued net outflows from spot ETFs + low liquidity → amplifying volatility, making sharp fluctuations easy to occur.

Overall, these past two days have indeed been a standard "strong rebound after a bloodbath," with market sentiment quickly shifting from extreme panic to greed. However, whether it has truly bottomed out and initiated a new trend still needs to be observed, particularly regarding whether the $60,000-65,000 support holds firm, as well as whether funding rates/on-chain data turn positive. Currently, it seems more like a rebound from overselling rather than a confirmation of a bull market.