#美联储利率决议 - This resolution is very likely to maintain the interest rate unchanged: the federal funds target rate remains in the range of 3.50%-3.75% (the last adjustment was a 25bp cut in December 2025).

- Market Probability:

- CME FedWatch tool shows: probability of maintaining unchanged is about 97%, probability of a 25bp cut is only about 2-3%.

- Almost no institution expects a rate cut this time, the consensus is to 'stay put' (pause).

- Reasons:

- In September, October, and December 2025, there were three consecutive 25bp cuts, totaling a 75bp reduction, and the policy has clearly shifted to easing.

- Recent employment data has improved (the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% after the December non-farm payrolls, wage growth is steady), and the labor market has not further deteriorated.

- Inflation is still slightly above the target (core PCE around 2.7-2.9%), and it may spike again in the first quarter due to seasonal/adjustment factors, the Federal Reserve needs to observe more data.

- Powell stated in December: 'We are in a good position now, we can wait and see how the economy evolves.'

- Trump’s Pressure:

- Trump has publicly demanded that the Federal Reserve cut rates faster, even hinting at intervention in its independence. Powell recently made a rare public rebuttal, emphasizing the Federal Reserve's independence.

- Personnel Turmoil:

- Chairman Powell's term ends in May 2026, and the nomination for a new chairman is already underway.

- The White House's attempts to dismiss certain board members (like Lisa Cook) have gone to court, putting the Federal Reserve's independence to the test.

- Various analyses suggest that while this resolution itself is 'uneventful', if Powell strongly defends independence at the press conference, or if news of a new chairman candidate emerges from the White House at the same time, it may trigger greater market volatility.

- Potential Market Reactions:

- Maintaining unchanged + Powell's neutral dovish stance → U.S. stocks rise slightly, the dollar weakens slightly, long-term bond yields decrease slightly.

- If Powell's tone is unexpectedly hawkish (emphasizing inflation risks) or if political pressure is evident → the dollar rebounds, U.S. stocks come under pressure.