#下任美联储主席会是谁？ Current Most Popular Candidates and Probabilities (Based on January 29 Evening Prediction Market)

- Kevin Warsh: Currently the most favored in the betting market (Polymarket, Kalshi, etc.) with a probability of about 80%-87%, making him the overwhelming favorite. Several media outlets and internal sources indicate that Trump leans towards him.

- Rick Rieder: A few days ago, he briefly led (at nearly 50%), but has significantly dropped in recent days, currently around **10%**.

- Kevin Hassett: Initially favored, but Trump has suggested he prefers him to remain in his current position, with a currently low probability (around 3%).

- Christopher Waller: Has been on the short list but with low probability.

Others occasionally mentioned but largely out of the race or marginalized include: Michelle Bowman, etc.

Brief Background

Trump's team (including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent) has gone through multiple rounds of selection, ultimately leaving these 4 main candidates. They all support significant interest rate cuts, aligning with Trump's stance. Warsh's advantages include: former Federal Reserve experience + long-term support from Trump + connections in Wall Street and Silicon Valley (close relationships with Peter Thiel, Stan Druckenmiller, etc.).

The announcement tomorrow morning is almost certain to end this months-long speculation. After the nomination, the Senate confirmation process may take several weeks to months, but given the Republican control of the Senate, the probability of passage is relatively high.

Summary: It is highly likely to be Kevin Warsh, but we need to wait for Trump to officially speak tomorrow.