Cicada Capital

Featuring insights from CereBree & Avinasi Labs.
One thing has hindered longevity projects for decades: the "translation gap." Experiments are often successful in reports, but implementation has been blocked for a very long time.
This translation gap is the difference between a clinical trial and a paper trail, representing the vast distance between a laboratory discovery and a medicine that actually reaches patients.
Today, we'll explore what's happening in this area now and how AI helps overcome that gap.
Modern protein design operates as an engineering loop from sequence to structure to function. Large-scale models, such as AlphaFold-class systems and protein language models including ESM, compress structural inference by rapidly predicting a protein's 3D shape from its genetic code. This improves the prediction of protein and small-molecule interactions.
Experimental validation remains essential because even highly specialized AI often makes mistakes. The cost of error is prohibitive, especially as the market grows; therefore, all options must be tested.
Small Molecule Discovery and Cellular Reprogramming
This structural progress directly influences small-molecule discovery. The expansion of the role of chemistry occurs through a combination of diffusion, variational and reinforcement learning.

Pharmacological properties known as ADMET for monitoring how a drug is absorbed and processed are also optimized. Additionally, pathways that interact with aging, such as the mTOR and AMPK metabolic switches, are activated. The real value depends on measurable operational metrics, such as Hit rate and Time to candidate. Pipeline efficiency determines impact.
Cellular reprogramming aims to reset epigenetic and transcriptomic states, effectively rebooting old cells to a younger state, through the transient expression of Yamanaka factors or chemical alternatives.
Precise temporal control is required to reduce oncogenic risk and ensure that these rejuvenated cells do not become cancerous. In parallel, machine learning supports senolytic discovery through high-content imaging and single-cell analysis to identify drugs capable of eliminating the 'zombie' cells that clutter our tissues.

Human-derived organoids, or miniature lab-grown versions of human organs, provide higher-fidelity validation models compared to traditional systems.
Industrial Validation and the Future Landscape
Closing the translation gap requires the integration of generative design, structural prediction workflows, AI-guided biological optimization and strict enforcement of Hit Rate / Time to candidate benchmarks.

Human-derived assays and interpretable readouts must function as validation layers to ensure reproducible biological effects. Industrial examples clearly demonstrate this transition.
Insilico Medicine, a Hong Kong-based company, reported accelerating research using AI; a molecule developed using a neural network has already entered clinical trials.Verge Genomics applies a "human-first" multi-omics strategy to reduce animal-to-human attrition, helping prevent the common failure where a drug works on mice but not on people.Recursion combines image-based screening with machine learning and maintains published platform methods.
Emerging models prioritize AI-enabled biological validation over pure discovery. Developability scoring and staged validation are used to identify underexplored candidates.
DePharm represents such an approach. With the advent of AI, the entire landscape has undergone a qualitative change.
Now, pure calculations and model speculation are becoming practical propositions. AI is becoming a human architect, literally designing the biological building blocks of our future and this is true in the most literal sense.
Expert Perspective: CereBree & Avinasi Labs
To gain deeper insight into these developments, we reached out to the team at CereBree and Avinasi Labs for their perspective on how AI is reshaping our approach to biological time.
Commentary from CereBree
What struck the CereBree team most was not just the acceleration of research, but a fundamental shift in mindset. For decades, aging was something we observed; now, it is something we can actively design. This represents a transition from passive discovery to active, intentional problem-solving.
However, they emphasize that this power comes with significant responsibility. Biology is not a closed system and interventions at the cellular level can have unintended ripple effects. Beyond the laboratory, the team suggests we must proactively grapple with three critical areas:
Equity and Access: Ensuring these treatments don't create a "youth divide" between different economic classes.Societal Impact: Rethinking retirement, resource allocation and population dynamics.Healthspan vs Lifespan: Ensuring that AI focuses on extending healthy, productive years, not just the quantity of life.
Q: As AI speeds up discovery, how do we ensure we aren't moving too fast for human safety?
Safety in an AI-accelerated world isn’t about slowing innovation; it’s about grounding it in biological reality. AI can generate promising molecules quickly, but these must be treated as hypotheses and validated through rigorous preclinical pathways.

The key is not to slow down AI's potential, but to accelerate the development of the safety nets and ethical guardrails that surround it.
Q: What is the biggest barrier preventing lab breakthroughs from becoming real treatments in our daily lives?
The translation gap is still the bottleneck. While AI has crushed early discovery timelines, over 90% of candidates still fail in humans because mouse results rarely translate.

Furthermore, aging is not yet a recognized disease target by regulators. To finally get these advances into people’s hands, we need clearer regulations, stronger human-relevant models like organoids and better alignment between academia and pharma.
Commentary from Avinasi Labs
We asked the Avinasi Labs team for their broad perspective on the current landscape. Their extensive response covers everything from the ethics of innovation speed to the critical role of data infrastructure and the rise of AI health agents.
Q: As AI speeds up discovery, how do we ensure we aren’t moving too fast for human safety?
Dario Amodei from Anthropic recently raised an interesting question: if AI discovered a cure for cancer today, would the world immediately be cured? This highlights a vital perspective: in drug discovery, the challenge is often not that progress moves too fast, but that it moves too slowly.

The development process already has multiple layers of safeguards, from animal studies to Phase III trials and real-world monitoring, to ensure that faster discovery does not mean reckless deployment.

For a terminal cancer patient hoping to live just one more month to attend their daughter’s wedding, faster discovery is not an abstract idea, it is real time gained. The greater concern is not acceleration itself, but the risk of AI developing beyond human control.

Fortunately, organizations like the Ethereum Foundation and the Center for AI Safety are already collaborating with policymakers to develop guardrails that ensure AI remains aligned with human interests. The goal is to ensure technological acceleration is accompanied by strong governance and safety frameworks.
Q3. How will AI health agents reshape the future of longevity and personalized health?
Recently, OpenClaw surpassed Linux in GitHub stars, reflecting how quickly open AI ecosystems are evolving. This signals a future where AI health agents, systems capable of managing and interpreting an individual’s health data in a continuous way, become achievable.

With user consent, an agent could integrate data from wearables, lab tests, and clinical records into a unified profile to manage appointments, report to physicians and identify lifestyle risks decades in advance.

At Avinasi Labs, we are building infrastructure for this paradigm across three foundational layers:

1. Data infrastructure, enabling AI agents to query validated longevity datasets and population-scale biological signals.

2. Service infrastructure, connecting individuals with coaches, clinics, diagnostics and therapeutic services.

3. Secure data identity systems, ensuring individuals retain control over their data while enabling anonymized contributions to research.

Ultimately, the biggest breakthroughs may not come from a single drug, but from the data infrastructure that allows humans and AI to understand aging as a continuous, verifiable biological process.
Note from Cicada CEO Maxim Moris
While the technology shows immense promise, the path to its widespread adoption is complicated by market perceptions. Maxim Moris, CEO of Cicada Market Maker, highlights a significant challenge facing the intersection of emerging tech and life sciences:
Longevity has become one of the defining trends of recent years, yet it remains far removed from the crypto and Web3 industries.

Established projects in this space already have queues of traditional funds eager to invest; for these founders, the last thing they want is to take capital associated with the crypto industry.

There is a clear reason for this: in the eyes of traditional science and finance, our industry is still strongly associated with scams and fraud. This perception will not change overnight. While I have seen only a few Web3 projects genuinely aiming to build something useful in this field, the potential is enormous.

However, success will only come to those projects that find a way to be truly valuable and genuinely necessary to the Longevity industry itself.
Conclusion
The bridge across the translation gap is finally being built, not just with better molecules, but with superior data and a shift in industrial philosophy. As we have seen, the path to longevity is no longer just a biological quest, it is an infrastructure and reputation challenge.
While AI provides the tools to design the biological building blocks of our future, the success of these innovations depends on their integration into a transparent, safe, and professional ecosystem.
The transition from observing aging to actively designing our biological time is well underway. For those projects capable of proving their utility to both science and society, the reward is more than just market success, it is the tangible expansion of human potential.

The global financial landscape is currently undergoing its most significant transformation in decades. As we move through 2026, the traditional dominance of fiat based reserves is being challenged by a structural shift toward hard assets.
This report provides a deep dive analysis into the 2024–2026 supercycle in Gold and Silver, examining the convergence of geopolitical tension, fiscal instability, and a fundamental realignment of global liquidity.
By synthesising macroeconomic data with shifting sovereign risk perceptions, we outline why precious metals have transitioned from simple hedges into the primary engines of modern portfolio diversification.
Executive View: The Structural Foundation
Gold remains structurally supported by three distinct and powerful forces that define the current market regime:
Investment liquidity from global financial centers.Asian physical demand combined with the strategic activities of central banks.The diversification of global reserves away from concentrated USD exposure.
It is a vital premise for this analysis that the recent market correction was entirely liquidity driven and not a result of a collapse in structural demand. Gold has formally entered a structural supercycle, driven primarily by sovereign states.

For portfolio managers and private investors alike, gold remains one of the most effective and essential diversification tools in the modern financial era.
Liquidity Structure and the Geography of Global Flows
Price acceleration phases in the current environment are primarily driven by Western financial capital. This includes United States and European exchange traded funds, COMEX positioning, and over the counter flows cleared via London.
The year 2025 delivered one of the strongest accumulation cycles in exchange traded funds on record, with 801T added globally. This data confirms that macro allocation, rather than traditional jewelry demand, has become the dominant price driver.
When real yields decline or the USD weakens, these flows act as a powerful multiplier for the upside.

Conversely, Asian demand operates under a different logic. Markets in China, India, and the Middle East absorb pullbacks via the purchase of bars, coins, and local exchange traded funds. In India, there has been a significant shift from jewelry toward investment formats, even at elevated price levels.
Meanwhile, central bank purchases remain at historically high levels, reflecting a broad diversification from USD assets and an increased awareness of sanctions risks. Together, these factors create a permanent structural floor under the market.
Geographical Flow Centers
The global infrastructure of the gold market is divided into specific hubs:
London LBMA: Functions as the primary clearing and over the counter hub.New York COMEX: The primary engine for leveraged positioning.Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Dubai: These cities represent the global centers for physical absorption.
Analysis of market volatility shows that spikes typically originate from Western positioning resets, not from Asian liquidation. It is specifically the demand from Asia and the official sector, meaning central banks, that stabilises the market during corrections.
The Dynamics of Market Corrections
When corrections occur, the pressure generally originates from redemptions in exchange traded funds, leveraged futures liquidation on the COMEX, and an increase in recycling supply triggered by higher prices. It must be emphasised that these corrections are predominantly driven by financial flows rather than a collapse in physical demand.
Geopolitical Premium and the Weak USD Path
Since the pivotal events of 2022, central bank accumulation has remained elevated, and the share of gold in global reserves has seen a consistent increase.
The freeze of $300B in Russian reserves shifted the global perception of sovereign risk, embedding a structural geopolitical premium into gold pricing. This component is regime driven and structural, not cyclical.
The Weak USD Policy Scenario
Under the current administration path, if policy tilts toward competitive USD weakening and expanded trade measures to support domestic industry, the transmission mechanism for gold becomes clear:
USD Down: Supports gold mechanically.Increased Trade Tensions: Increases the risk premium.Real Yields Under Pressure: Accelerates allocation flows into precious metals.
Confirmation signals for this scenario include a sustained downtrend in the DXY, declining 10 year real yields, renewed inflows into exchange traded funds, and an escalation in trade policy.

Under these conditions, gold could transition from its current steady uptrend into a phase of allocation driven acceleration.
The 2024–2026 Gold Rally: Four Reinforcing Pillars
Since the start of 2024, gold has jumped +155% from its $2,050 base, reaching an all-time high of $5,608 in January 2026. In 2025 alone, the asset grew by 67%, marking the strongest annual performance in 47 years, a feat not seen since 1979. This acceleration has pushed gold into a state of price discovery, where technical resistance levels are practically absent.
Pillar 1: The Debasement Trade and Long-term Fiat Depreciation
The $300B freeze of Russian reserves in 2022 became the primary catalyst for a global re-evaluation of the safety of USD denominated assets. Central banks, particularly those within the BRICS+ alliance, began a systematic diversification into physical gold, which stands as the only asset without counterparty risk. According to the Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, 81% of central banks expect further growth in gold reserves, and 28% plan to increase their holdings within the next 12 months.
Pillar 2: Real Rates and Monetary Conditions
With 10 year Treasuries yielding approximately 4.05% and core inflation at 2.7%, real rates are hovering around the 1.3–1.6% range. Historically, gold performs with exceptional strength when real rates remain below 2%. In a sustained environment of Quantitative Easing, gold serves as a critical hedge against hidden inflation.
Pillar 3: US Fiscal Crisis and the Debt Supercycle
Federal debt has now exceeded the $38.8T mark, and the budget deficit is running at over 6% of GDP, with $1.9T projected by the CBO for the 2026 fiscal year. Deep political polarisation prevents any serious attempt at fiscal consolidation. Investors increasingly understand that this debt will be eroded via inflation and nominal growth, which implies a fundamental, long term weakness for the USD.
Pillar 4: The Trump Factor and Geopolitical Turbulence
The current administration actively pursues a policy of USD weakening to bolster domestic exports. As a result, the DXY has lost 13% over the past year. Concurrent geopolitical tensions, ranging from issues involving Greenland and Venezuela to the broader Middle East, generate a continuous and robust demand for safe haven assets. Gold remains the traditional and ultimate safe haven in global financial markets.
Central Banks and Global Demand Structure
Central bank purchases remain the core engine of this rally. Following the record breaking 1,136t in 2022, the pace of accumulation stabilised at 1,044–1,051t annually. In the 2023–2024 period, this volume was 2.2x above the pre-crisis norm of 2010–2021, which averaged 473t per year.
2025 Statistics: Net known purchases reached 863t.Third Quarter 2025 Data: Central banks bought 220t, which is 10% more year over year, and a significant 28% increase quarter over quarter despite the record high price environment.Secondary Demand Drivers: The market saw record inflows into exchange traded funds of 801t and physical bar and coin demand reaching 1,374t.Total Volume: Total global demand in 2025 exceeded 5,000t, valued at approximately $555B, an increase of 45% year over year.
Silver 2024–2026: Fundamental Drivers and Market Volatility
Silver has experienced its own powerful growth cycle in recent years. In 2025, silver prices surged by approximately 147%, reaching record levels above $120/oz amidst supply deficits and macro economic drivers. By early 2026, silver continues to show strong growth, outpacing gold in annual percentage terms with a 30% increase year to date.

The market, however, remains highly volatile, with large swings and drops of over 30% in short periods being a notable feature of the 2026 landscape.
Key Fundamental Drivers for Silver
Structural Supply Deficit: Silver has been in a supply deficit for several consecutive years, with demand significantly exceeding available supply. The Silver Institute estimates that deficits may reach tens of millions of ounces in 2026. Producкtion growth is inherently limited to 1% or 2% per year, as most silver is produced as a byproduct of other metals like gold and copper, making rapid expansion nearly impossible.Industrial Demand Growth: Silver properties of conductivity and reflectivity make it essential for electronics, sensors, artificial intelligence data centers, solar panels, and the electric vehicle industry. The solar sector alone consumes hundreds of millions of ounces annually. Unlike gold, 50–60% of silver demand is industrial, adding a long term structural factor to its price.Macro and Safe Haven Demand: Like gold, silver is viewed as a hedge during trade wars, geopolitical tensions, and periods of rate cut expectations. For example, in February 2026, silver exchange traded funds and futures surged in direct response to rising trade and geopolitical risks.Demand Structure: Investment demand remains strong with inflows into silver exchange traded funds, particularly during market turbulence. Physical demand for coins and bars remains solid into 2026 despite the high price environment.
Tokenised Silver as the New Player
Representing physical silver in the form of real world assets tradable on blockchain exchanges, tokenised silver offers significant advantages:
Fractional ownership down to 1g or 1oz.24/7 trading with higher liquidity than physical silver.Usability in decentralised finance and smart contracts.
Scenarios, Outlook, and Monitoring 2026–2027
Gold Price Framework
Base Case with 65% Probability: Consolidation between $4,800 and $5,600 with a gradual move to new highs of $5,700 to $6,300 by late 2026. Central bank and institutional demand is expected to fully offset weakness in the jewelry segment.Bull Case with 25% Probability: A geopolitical shock or US recession could drive prices toward $6,300 to $7,500 by 2026–2027.Bear Case with 10% Probability: A stronger USD, combined with sharp Federal Reserve tightening and trade war de-escalation, could lead to a correction toward $4,300 to $4,800.

Short term period of 1 to 3 months expects volatility of ±10% with support at $4,700 to $4,800 and resistance at $5,300 to $5,500. The mid term period of 6 to 18 months outlook remains a confident uptrend with targets of $5,900 to $6,500 by the end of 2026 and $6,800 to $7,800 in 2027.
Silver Price Framework
Base Case with 60% to 70% Probability: Consolidation around current levels with a gradual move to new highs. Support is found at $70 to $90/oz, with resistance at $100 to $120.Bull Case with 20% to 30% Probability: Geopolitical stress or a sharp USD drop could push silver to $150 and above in 2026–2027.Bear Case with 10% Probability: Real rate hikes and risk on sentiment could lead to a pullback toward $45 to $60/oz.
Conclusion: Navigating the Supercycle
In conclusion, the data confirms that gold and silver are no longer just cyclical commodities but have become central to a regime driven monetary reset.
The combination of inelastic supply, particularly in the silver market, and an insatiable demand from the official sector creates a unique environment of allocation driven acceleration. While short term volatility is inevitable, the long term trajectory is underpinned by a historic debt supercycle and the irreversible diversification of global sovereign wealth.
For the discerning investor, the years 2024–2026 represent a generational opportunity to secure value in an era of long term fiat depreciation.
$XAU / $XAG

Intro and Market Background
Monad mainnet has been live since late November. The praying phase is already over, but the data is even stronger than many people think. Let's talk about the current state.
$MON is staying at $0.02, a 37% correction from its December high. With a $224M market cap, the token is finding its actual floor.

TVL metrics vary, DeFiLlama’s $233M baseline suggests capital is settling in. There's definitely no serious money leak now.
Some Onchain Statistics
304 protocols are live on Monad - it's a faster start than in previous L1 cycles. The $414.5M in stablecoins, mostly $USDC - this is real potential waiting for a reason to move.
Verified bridge netflows remain partly hidden, consistent activity generates ~$5,000 in daily fees. It’s an early baseline and competitive compared to several Ethereum L2s.
The number of validators was already approaching 200. Decentralisation is still a work in progress, but it already looks better than other multiple chains.
What About Infrastructure?
Among the real advantages, is the parallel EVM with a speed of 10K TPS. It works, and allows developers to simply increase the speed of the same application without having to learn new languages.
This has great potential for expansion if certain triggers arise.
Monad Ecosystem
DeFi is led by aPriori and Curvance. Despite an early Sybil incident, where 5,800 wallets in aPriori took a massive share of the drop. The team’s supplemental rewards showed they actually care about community health.
Fortytwo (AI) and Lumiterra (GameFi) are building things that would lag on slower chains. MuDigital ($13M TVL) is the dark horse here, which positions Monad for institutional credit as regulations clear.

Meanwhile, $CHOG and $GMONAD keep the social layer active while the infrastructure matures. They really keep their communities active, so Monad as an idea won't die.
Cicada’s View on Projects to Watch
Morpho:
Morpho entered Monad as an established heavyweight, with over $6B in total TVL across multiple networks. Within the Monad ecosystem, its role is to provide capital efficiency.
Thanks to the Morpho Blue model, the protocol enables the creation of isolated lending markets. In Monad’s high-performance environment, this minimises gas costs and allows oracles to update faster - resulting in higher collateralisation ratios.
As of early February 2026, Morpho - together with a few other major protocols, accounts for nearly 50% of Monad’s total TVL, which peaked at $678.6M. This signals that large players prefer Morpho’s proven security when deploying $MON and stablecoins.
Neverland:
Neverland is a protocol born inside the ecosystem. Its core strength lies in veTokenomics and deep integration with protocol revenues.
While Morpho provides the raw lending infrastructure, Neverland builds an ecosystem on top, featuring self-repaying loans and automated yield strategies. It absorbs the liquidity made available by Morpho and transforms it into more complex financial products.
Neverland is already showing strong traction for a native protocol: ~$23.16M TVL with $82.27M in borrow volume. This reflects high capital velocity - exactly what Monad’s parallel EVM was designed to enable.
Insights from Morpho and Neverland
We asked the Morpho team two insightful questions so you can get a deeper, insider perspective.
What is your take on Monad’s infra potential and Parallel EVM?
A hyper-performant chain infrastructure allows builders like us to stay on the bleeding edge and create products that aren’t possible elsewhere.

At the same time, EVM compatibility lets us preserve network effects and bring over our battle-tested infrastructure and tooling, resulting in a more robust developer ecosystem.
Which projects do you see as the hidden gems within the Monad?
Nad.Fun stands out for how it experiments with native mechanics and user flows, pushing the boundaries of what consumer-facing apps can look like on Monad. It’s a great example of how performance unlocks entirely new product design space.

FastLane plays a critical role on the infrastructure side. By focusing on execution efficiency and order flow, it strengthens the foundations of the ecosystem and enables more sophisticated DeFi primitives to emerge.
We also asked some questions to the Neverland team to get a more complete picture.
As a team building on Monad today, what has actually changed for your product compared to building on other EVM chains?
We have previously worked on apps on Ethereum and Avalanche, and despite different fee profiles, both were constrained by congestion and latency that limited what could realistically run on-chain.

Monad’s speed and low fees are a prerequisite for enabling continuous self-repaying loans, frequent user actions, viable liquidations of any size, and higher capital efficiency through real-time risk management rather than conservative penalties.
What is your take on Monad’s infra potential and Parallel EVM?
Monad’s infrastructure unlocks what the EVM was always meant to be but never practically achieved. Parallel execution combined with low fees removes the need to design around congestion, latency, or user hesitation.

It allows apps to operate continuously rather than defensively. For us, that means building systems that assume constant interaction, fast risk response, and seamless scaling from day one.

Parallel EVM isn’t just a performance upgrade - it’s a structural shift in what kinds of protocols are economically and operationally viable on an EVM chain.
Market Conditions and Future
Monad has a full year of runway. The first supply cliff (16.6%) doesn't hit until November 24, 2026, followed by a 36-month vesting period. This gives the ecosystem time to move beyond ETH ports and launch truly native apps.
Chain delivered a machine that works. At $0.02, the entry reflects a reset of expectations. If Q1 catalysts like native staking trigger a supply cutting, the upside is significant.
The tech is solid, and now the focus shifts to organic growth. The question is: "When will the tech meta be back", because infrastructure is already here and waiting.