金禧随记

Let me talk about the upcoming trends of $BTC and $ETH . I personally believe that there will continue to be a decline, so pay attention to the support level at 88750!
From the market structure, Bitcoin and Ethereum are still in a downward channel. Although there has been a short-term rebound and correction, the trend has not reversed. The overall rhythm remains — rebound means short, waiting for a drop.
Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating below the middle line of the downward channel, with multiple days of rebounds hitting resistance near 104200. After testing 99000 yesterday, a double bottom rebound formed, but after attacking 104000, it quickly fell back, and the rebound remains weak.
The short-term range is expected to fluctuate between 98500 and 104200. If it fails to break through and stay above 104200, the rhythm will still be to short on rebounds.
If it breaks below 97600, it will open up space below, possibly testing 92700, or even filling the gap between 88700 and 89000.

Reference range:
Short position idea: 102500–103000 area
Target range: 100600–99300
If it breaks below 92700, it will be a signal for a phase transition to bearish. If it can hold this range and gain strong support near 88K for a rebound, then there is still hope for challenging a new high of 130000!

Ethereum's trend is linked with Bitcoin, with a slightly faster rhythm. After testing the pressure above 3450 yesterday, it fell back, continuing a weak structure today. The short-term rebound is low in volume, indicating limited capital support.

Reference range:

Short position idea: 3450–3470 area
Target range: 3260–3180

If it breaks below 3160, it will open up space below, with further support to pay attention to the 2870 area.

The overall rhythm maintains a bearish outlook, focusing on laying out short positions around the pressure zone, confirming on the right side before following up.

Currently, the market is still in a phase of downward movement. If BTC can hold above 92700 and show a strong reversal structure, there is still a chance to challenge the high of 130000 again; however, if it effectively breaks below 92700, it means the market may officially enter a 'bear market', so pay attention to the support at 88750.

Summary:
A rebound does not mean a trend reversal; support not breaking is the bottom. Rules may be broken, but the market rhythm does not lie.
#隐私币生态普涨 #美国ADP数据超预期

Opportunities and risks coexist, rational layout, timing determines returns. In the second half of 2025, we will embark on a new journey together!
Chat room ID: l79z7uty
#Crypto market correction

Golden script big reversal? With the double buff of the US and Iran + the Federal Reserve fully stacked, how should we play it?
Last Friday, gold staged a "deep V rebound," soaring from an intraday low of 4655 directly to 4960, a single-day surge of nearly 6.7%. Silver also rose over 6%, and even US stocks joined the excitement. On the surface, it seems like a return of bulls, but in essence, it resembles a concentrated repair of the previous extreme decline, with panic emotions temporarily retreating, which does not mean that risks have been eliminated.

What truly needs attention is the emotional disturbances that may arise from the second round of negotiations between the US and Iran over the weekend, as well as the ongoing game of expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy.

In the current market, position is more important than opinion.

From the market perspective, gold prices are still operating within a key range:

Support: 4935-4897, 4880, 4750, 4620
Once it breaks below 4897-4880 and retests, we need to be wary of a rapid drop to 4750 or even 4620;
Resistance: 5000, 5085, 5100, 5170, 5290
Only if it effectively stabilizes above 5100 can it extend towards 5190 and 5240.

Regarding central banks continuously increasing their gold holdings, the market tends to overinterpret. In fact, central bank gold purchases are more about long-term allocation behavior rather than short-term price signals. Continuous small increases over several months are more about optimizing reserve structures and diversifying risks, and do not equate to "supporting" gold prices or "lifting" them. Historical data also indicates that the correlation between central bank gold buying and short-term gold price fluctuations is not strong.

What truly affects gold volatility remains liquidity.

If we compare Federal Reserve policy to a water pool: raising and lowering interest rates simply adjusts the speed of water flow, while expanding and contracting the balance sheet determines the size of the pool.
What the market is genuinely worried about is not whether interest rates will be lowered, but that while there is an expectation of rate cuts, the pool is slowly getting smaller—meaning liquidity is being withdrawn.
In this context, even if a rebound occurs in the short term, it resembles a link in a fluctuation rather than the starting point of a one-sided market.

It has been emphasized that the two core cards for the US are finance and public opinion. Through expectation management, policy rhythm, and adjustments in market structure, guiding the flow of funds is far less costly and more efficient than direct confrontation.

In summary, the medium to long-term logic of gold has not been undermined, but short-term volatility has significantly intensified. In this phase, what is more needed is to control the rhythm and respect the position, rather than being led by emotions.

#美国伊朗对峙 #BTC何时反弹？
$XAU
$BTC
$ETH

5-day total: 3676 points
Trend trading, strict risk control, steady execution
#美国伊朗对峙 #BTC何时反弹？
$XAU
$XAG
$BTC

The pullback is in place, and the low long strategy has been realized.

The early review suggested entering low longs in batches at 4680–4700, with a stop loss below 4635. There was support at 4705, and then it gradually recovered to 4938.

A sharp drop is not a trend reversal; it is a consolidation wash.
Only those who can wait for the right position can capture the entire range.

Pressure to watch: 5000
A pullback is still an opportunity; don't get lost in panic.
#When to bottom out? #Cryptocurrency market adjustment
$XAU
$BTC
$ETH

February 6 Gold Morning Review | Risk aversion rises again, gold retraces to key levels, don't lose rhythm in panic

In the early morning, US-Iran negotiations dragged on, tankers were seized, and Middle Eastern military buildup increased; the US continues military aid to Ukraine; non-farm payrolls delayed due to the shutdown.
These all point to one thing — rising uncertainty, risk aversion hasn't disappeared, it's just the price is releasing emotions.

From the market, the 4-hour has already retraced down to the lower track near the middle track, belonging to a deep retracement in the trend. The 1-hour and 15-minute charts have been in continuous decline, but KDJ and RSI have entered a clearly low, stagnant zone while the daily line is still running in a bullish structure; this wave is a sharp drop to wash positions, not a trend reversal.
Support: 4680–4660, 4620, 4550
Resistance: 4850, 4920, 5000, 5100

Operational Ideas

Buy in batches at 4680–4700

Place defense below 4635

Silver was directly smashed from above 90 to around 70 yesterday, and the daily level is close to the lower limit of the Bollinger Bands, in an oversold state.

Support: 70, 67.5, 64, 58-54
Resistance: 75, 80, 88

Operational Suggestions

Try light buys near 70

Defense at 67.5
The elasticity of silver will be greater than that of gold, but the rhythm will be half a beat slower.

Summary of the morning rhythm in one sentence:
Gold is washing emotions, silver is washing leverage.
The real trend is not bad; what is bad is the mentality of chasing highs and cutting lows.
#美国伊朗对峙 #BTC何时反弹？
$XAU
$XAG

Both long and short positions can profit; timing is the real cash machine.

Gold short at 4930 → 4820, pocketed +22,000.
Under the same rhythm, BTC perpetual short position.

It's not that the market is easy to trade,
it's that the position is right, and direction becomes simple.

When it’s time to go long, buy low,
when it’s time to go short, sell high.

The core of trading has never been about prediction,
it's about waiting for the price to reach the point where action is needed.
#BTC何时反弹？ #美国伊朗对峙
$BTC
$XAU

February 5th Gold Morning Review | Negotiation Changes + Non-Farm Payroll Delayed, Safe-Haven Reflow, Low Multi-Window Opened

News reversal in the early hours: The US-Iran-Oman negotiations were canceled due to topic disagreements, while military deployments in the Middle East continue to escalate; at the same time, part of the US government is shut down, and the Non-Farm Payroll on February 6th is forced to be delayed. Geopolitical uncertainty + data vacuum period, safe-haven sentiment flows back into gold.

From the chart perspective, the rapid rebound from 4850 was quickly supported last night, and the 1-hour and 15-minute charts have re-established themselves above the middle Bollinger band, while the 4-hour maintains a bullish repair structure. Moving averages are turning upwards, MACD red bars are rising again, and RSI has returned to a strong zone but is not overbought—this is a re-launch pattern after the pullback.

Support: 4955, 4910, 4900, 4850
Resistance: 5000, 5055, 5091-5100, 5225

Operational Thoughts

4900–4920 gradually adding long positions,

XAG is weaker than gold but shows a clear bottom lift, moving up along the middle track on the 1-hour chart.
Support: 85, 83.5, 82.2
Resistance: 89, 92, 101
Lightly buying near 85, with a target of 89–92, watch if it breaks below 83.5.

The current rhythm is not about chasing highs, but waiting for pullbacks and the secondary strength of bulls.
#美国伊朗对峙 #黄金白银反弹
$XAG
$XAU
$BTC

ADP's shocking figure of only 22,000! How will gold move on the eve of non-farm payrolls?

The recently released January ADP employment figure in the U.S. is only 22,000 (previous value 41,000, expected 48,000), which is significantly lower than expected—signals of a “cooling” job market are clearer now.

How does the market usually interpret such data?
Weak job market → Rising expectations for interest rate cuts → Pressure on the dollar → Easier for gold to strengthen
So tonight's key phrase is not “the data itself,” but—can the narrative of interest rate cuts continue to ferment?

But note: ADP is just the “appetizer,” the real volatility is yet to come.
The most common trend on the eve of non-farm payrolls is: first a rise, then a washout, it's normal to sweep stop losses back and forth, don't get carried away by emotions.

I am more concerned with two things:
1) After the data is released, can gold hold the key support (not retracing = strong)
2) Is the dollar/U.S. Treasury yield continuing to weaken (this is the “fuel” for gold to continue its ascent)

In short: The worse the ADP, the more the market dares to bet on interest rate cuts, and the better the prospects for gold.
Tonight, don’t chase highs or panic sell, focus on buying the dips and riding the trend.

#美国伊朗对峙 #黄金白银反弹
$XAG
$XAU

Early market strategy realized: Buy on pullback, above 5000 in place

Morning analysis provided: 4910–4930 buy on pullback and stabilization, do not chase 5000. The market's lowest point was 4909, which then surged to 5049.

The fluctuations before the data release are convergence, not weakness.
Those who patiently waited for the position obtained the entire profit segment.

In trading, it's not about speed, but rhythm.
#黄金白银反弹 #美国伊朗对峙
$XAU
$BTC
$ETH

February 4th Gold Morning Review | Patience Game Before the 5000 Barrier

Last night, gold rebounded and repeatedly consolidated around the 4950 line, touching near 4990 multiple times without stabilizing. The 15-minute and 1-hour structures show that we are currently close to the Bollinger mid-band oscillation, with MACD rebounding and RSI returning to neutral territory—this is horizontal digestion after a strong rebound, not a weakening.

In the early hours, a sudden incident in the Middle East occurred, where the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone approaching an aircraft carrier, causing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical uncertainty raises risk aversion, but it leans more towards a bottoming out rather than an immediate surge. Combined with tonight's dense release of ADP, PMI, and EIA data, the market has clearly entered a contraction phase ahead of the data.

Key levels to watch are 5000–5010. If it stabilizes, space opens up again; if it doesn't stabilize, it remains in high-level oscillation.
Support: 4900-4881, 4813, 4757, 4650-4600
Resistance: 5000-5049, 5100, 5180, 5234-5302

Short-term focus:
If it pulls back to 4910–4930 and stabilizes, consider a low buy.
If it faces resistance above 5000, do not chase long positions, wait for a pullback;
If it breaks below 4900, pay attention to the pullback rhythm at 4780.

In short: The direction is clear, only lacking data to trigger volume.
#贵金属巨震 #黄金白银反弹

4931 more, stop loss 4915, target 5000.
Friends who are not in a position can directly enter according to the plan.

I prefer to state things clearly in advance: entry point, target level, and stop loss level.

Trading relies on rules, not post-event performances.
Understand the rhythm and execute according to the plan.
#黄金白银反弹 #贵金属巨震
$XAU
$BTC
$ETH

A single bearish candlestick shatters faith: Behind the gold plunge, rules are more important than emotions

On January 30, gold and silver experienced a rare plunge. Many attribute the cause simply to "technical overbought" or "a certain candidate being nominated," but what really deserves attention is the sudden change in trading rules and liquidity environment.

When prices are high, leverage is high, and consensus is also high, it only takes one trigger point for the market to instantaneously shift from "chasing highs" to "panic selling."

This trigger point comes from both ends:

First is the shift in policy expectations.
The market had previously bet on more easing, but the nomination and statements prompted a reevaluation of the future monetary path, providing short-term support for the dollar and weakening gold's "zero interest advantage."

Second is the adjustment of margin mechanisms.
CME changed the margin from a fixed value to a percentage of the contract and raised it to 8%. This means: the higher the price, the higher the margin.
High leveraged funds were forced to reduce positions, triggering stop-losses in a chain reaction, causing a liquidity panic.

This is very similar in essence to the silver events of 1980 and 2011: it is not that the market suddenly turned bearish, but rather that the rules made high leverage unsustainable.

Looking deeper — gold, silver, BTC, these "capital reservoirs" allow for price increases but will not permit everyone to safely profit and exit.
When the market begins to form a "consensus belief," volatility will be deliberately amplified. The aim is not to crush precious metals, but to allow funds to flow back into the dollar system after panic.

This is also why sharp declines often occur on Fridays, when liquidity is thinnest. It is not a coincidence; it is structural.

What to watch next? If BTC continues to decline over the weekend, it will likely lead to a gap down for gold on Monday.

Support: 4885, 4780–4745, 4660–4600
If it breaks below 4600, look for 4530, 4480

Resistance: 4900–4955, 5000, 5050–5080
If it reestablishes above 5080, look for 5155

Additionally, pay attention to the market reaction after the margin mechanism in early February and the impact of non-farm payroll data on the dollar.

In summary:
This is not the end of a trend, but a forced reshuffling in the era of high leverage.
What truly determines the future is not emotions, but whether you understand the rules.
#贵金属巨震 #金银为何暴跌
$BTC
$XAU
$XAG

Why shouldn't you rush to look for a surge after a sharp drop?

A sharp drop followed by a violent rise the next day makes many people think the trend has returned. In fact, this is often a process to attract non-professional funds to enter the market.

A healthy structure is not a V rebound,
but rather: oscillation → turnover → re-selection of direction.

This round of decline has taught many people a lesson:
Don't go all in at once, and don't chase emotions.

The core of trading is not guessing rises and falls,
but distinguishing when capital is manipulating the market and when there is a true trend.
#贵金属巨震 #金银为何暴跌
$XAU
$XAG
$BTC

5-Day Live Review: The Rhythm is Right, the Market is Just an ATM

It's not about always trading in the right direction,
it's about capturing trends in major movements and rhythms in small fluctuations.
There are stop losses and trial and error,
but once the structure is established, profits will run on their own.

This wave in gold is not difficult.
The challenge is—can you follow the rhythm?
#贵金属巨震 #金银为何暴跌
$XAU
$XAG

Early Review | The sharp drop is not a peak, but a high-level handover

Yesterday, gold surged to 5598, refreshing the historical high, and then quickly fell back to 5104 within 30 minutes, a typical case of concentrated profit-taking at high levels. Subsequently, the price stabilized and fluctuated, without showing a trend deterioration.

This level of pullback, in a bull market, is called handover, not a trend reversal.

This round of gold is not driven by sentiment, but by: central banks continuously buying gold + long-term geopolitical issues + resilient inflation + restructuring of the credit system.
Short-term rebounds in the dollar and U.S. bonds bring some suppression, but the reduction of U.S. bonds by Europe and the demand for precious metals as a store of value remain, with supportive funds always at the bottom.
This type of passive, stampede-like pullback is often the most comfortable entry point in the medium term in history.

The Strait of Hormuz will conduct live-fire exercises (February 1–2), global energy and shipping safety expectations are rising, and safe-haven sentiment is returning;
The Russian side is preparing to withdraw personnel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, implying that the region has been included in the potential strike list, and the risk level in the Middle East has increased;
Kadyrov reiterated the objectives of the Russia-Ukraine operations, reinforcing expectations of long-term geopolitical issues.

The common point of these messages: the risks have not materialized, but uncertainty has significantly increased. For gold, this is a continuously supportive positive factor, rather than a momentary surge positive factor.

Operational Strategy

5325–5345 Stabilization can be bought in batches
5310 Can add positions
Targets: 5380–5420, 5465, 5580-5600

If it rebounds to 5430 and is obviously under pressure, light short positions can be taken for speculation, with a stop loss at 5450 and a target of 5360–5380.

In a nutshell
A sharp drop is emotion, a trend is logic.
What is being tested now is not courage, but understanding.
#美联储维持利率不变 #黄金比特币联动行情能走多远？
$XAU
$BTC
$ETH