Early Review | The sharp drop is not a peak, but a high-level handover
Yesterday, gold surged to 5598, refreshing the historical high, and then quickly fell back to 5104 within 30 minutes, a typical case of concentrated profit-taking at high levels. Subsequently, the price stabilized and fluctuated, without showing a trend deterioration.
This level of pullback, in a bull market, is called handover, not a trend reversal.
This round of gold is not driven by sentiment, but by: central banks continuously buying gold + long-term geopolitical issues + resilient inflation + restructuring of the credit system.
Short-term rebounds in the dollar and U.S. bonds bring some suppression, but the reduction of U.S. bonds by Europe and the demand for precious metals as a store of value remain, with supportive funds always at the bottom.
This type of passive, stampede-like pullback is often the most comfortable entry point in the medium term in history.
The Strait of Hormuz will conduct live-fire exercises (February 1–2), global energy and shipping safety expectations are rising, and safe-haven sentiment is returning;
The Russian side is preparing to withdraw personnel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran, implying that the region has been included in the potential strike list, and the risk level in the Middle East has increased;
Kadyrov reiterated the objectives of the Russia-Ukraine operations, reinforcing expectations of long-term geopolitical issues.
The common point of these messages: the risks have not materialized, but uncertainty has significantly increased. For gold, this is a continuously supportive positive factor, rather than a momentary surge positive factor.
Operational Strategy
5325–5345 Stabilization can be bought in batches
5310 Can add positions
Targets: 5380–5420, 5465, 5580-5600
If it rebounds to 5430 and is obviously under pressure, light short positions can be taken for speculation, with a stop loss at 5450 and a target of 5360–5380.
In a nutshell
A sharp drop is emotion, a trend is logic.
What is being tested now is not courage, but understanding.
$XAU
