February 4th Gold Morning Review | Patience Game Before the 5000 Barrier
Last night, gold rebounded and repeatedly consolidated around the 4950 line, touching near 4990 multiple times without stabilizing. The 15-minute and 1-hour structures show that we are currently close to the Bollinger mid-band oscillation, with MACD rebounding and RSI returning to neutral territory—this is horizontal digestion after a strong rebound, not a weakening.
In the early hours, a sudden incident in the Middle East occurred, where the U.S. military shot down an Iranian drone approaching an aircraft carrier, causing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical uncertainty raises risk aversion, but it leans more towards a bottoming out rather than an immediate surge. Combined with tonight's dense release of ADP, PMI, and EIA data, the market has clearly entered a contraction phase ahead of the data.
Key levels to watch are 5000–5010. If it stabilizes, space opens up again; if it doesn't stabilize, it remains in high-level oscillation.
Support: 4900-4881, 4813, 4757, 4650-4600
Resistance: 5000-5049, 5100, 5180, 5234-5302
Short-term focus:
If it pulls back to 4910–4930 and stabilizes, consider a low buy.
If it faces resistance above 5000, do not chase long positions, wait for a pullback;
If it breaks below 4900, pay attention to the pullback rhythm at 4780.
In short: The direction is clear, only lacking data to trigger volume.
