At the moment when gold and silver seemed to only rise and not fall, the market suddenly hit the brakes. Gold prices turned around from above 5600, with a sharp decline in the Asian market, even briefly falling below 5200; silver also followed suit. Many people's first reaction is: Is the bull market over? But the more critical question is — is this really a signal of 'washing out positions and changing hands,' or is it a sign of 'trend loosening'?
Let’s be clear with the conclusion: this drop seems more like the normal cost of a high-level market. The more one-sided the rally and the more consensus among funds, the easier it is to experience a 'sudden, unbuffered pullback.' And don’t forget, even with the pullback, gold may still deliver one of its strongest monthly performances in decades — this indicates that the bullish base is still there, but the short-term overheating needs to cool down.
Why did it drop so suddenly? The logic is not complicated: on Thursday, U.S. stocks saw widespread sell-offs, tech stocks weakened under the disturbance of earnings reports, and risk sentiment cooled; meanwhile, the dollar rebounded from a temporary low. For precious metals, the dollar's rebound is a direct short-term headwind. When the 'short dollar, long gold and silver' trades become overly crowded, any slight change in wind direction will trigger a collective retreat of profit-taking, making the drop feel like stepping off a ledge—fast, fierce, and coherent.
Institutions are also reminding about 'volatility risks'. Saxo's Ole Hansen mentioned a very core point: volatility tends to self-reinforce. The more drastic the price movement, the thinner the market liquidity; the thinner the liquidity, a slight increase in selling pressure can push prices down even faster. This is why in such phases, the most dangerous thing is not a wrong directional judgment, but using high leverage to endure 'un buffered volatility'.
From a macro perspective, the underlying drivers of gold price increases this year have not suddenly disappeared: the expectation of a weaker dollar, asset reallocation, and the market's repricing of credit and policy uncertainties are still supporting the grand logic of precious metals. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold target to 5400 and emphasized that private capital participation could bring additional upside potential. Another noteworthy detail is that after the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, gold was still able to break through key levels, indicating that the market's belief in the 'weak dollar narrative' is very strong—this is also why every time the dollar rebounds, it often triggers sharp short-term pullbacks.
Geopolitical factors act like an 'amplifier'. Rumors regarding U.S. options on Iran are constantly fermenting, with risk premiums fluctuating, providing fuel for bulls and an excuse for pullbacks: as soon as the news heats up, funds rush in; as soon as the news cools down, funds pull out. The higher the position, the more easily it is pulled back and forth by this emotional switch.
Silver is even more exaggerated. Its rise is more like a 'sprint', and when it pulls back, it feels more like 'falling'. It's not surprising that silver prices retreated after soaring to around 120: silver is inherently more prone to parabolic trends than gold. JPMorgan's perspective is very realistic: when momentum approaches a parabola, trying to accurately pinpoint the peak is almost impossible—what you think is the peak might just be a breather; what you think is a pullback might be another sharp rise.
My judgment: the trend may not necessarily reverse, but the 'high volatility phase' has already been established. In this phase, the easiest way to get into trouble is not misjudging the direction, but chasing highs, over-leveraging, and as a result, being directly pierced through by a sudden drop. The truly steady approach is to wait for volatility to decrease and for the structure to be re-confirmed—stabilization after a pullback, gains and losses at key levels, and changes in the dollar and risk sentiment are the switches for the next phase of the market.
In short: don't be a warrior at the hottest position; high positions require more risk control, not just courage.
#贵金属巨震 #美联储维持利率不变
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