币圈—巴菲特

#加密市场观察 I always feel that the counterfeit season cannot die out; it will definitely come. When will it come? During the months after the price of counterfeit coins has fallen, people feel hopeless and start to cut their losses.

$BTC Bitcoin's Annual Spring Festival Market Trends Overview 📈

Brothers, let's take a look at the rise and fall patterns of Bitcoin during the Spring Festival over the years, so you can have a better understanding!

From 2015 to 2025, these 11 Spring Festivals show interesting performances of Bitcoin:

• 2015: +1.7%

• 2016: +8.0%

• 2017: +7.4%

• 2018: +24.7% (historical highest Spring Festival increase)

• 2019: +6.4%

• 2020: +8.8%

• 2021: +9.2%

• 2022: +13.1%

• 2023: +13.7%

• 2024: +17.3%

• 2025: -4.8% (the only decrease)

• 2026: ??????

In 11 years, there were 10 increases and 1 decrease, with a total increase of 105.5%, averaging about 9.59% increase each Spring Festival.

The market trend for the 2026 Year of the Horse Spring Festival is still a big question mark; historical patterns do not guarantee the future, so everyone should remain rational and not blindly invest, hahahaha 😄!

#比特币 #春节行情 #加密货币 #马年大吉

$ETH $BNB

February 11 Market Morning Read

$BTC The sky has fallen, brothers. Yesterday's CPI data exceeded expectations, directly pulling the 'water' out of the market. Last night, the January CPI year-on-year rose to 3.0%, higher than the expected 2.9%, and month-on-month it soared to 0.5%, the most intense since September 2023.

This means inflation is rising again, and the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March has dropped to 2.5%, with the total number of rate cuts for the year significantly adjusted down by the market.

For the cryptocurrency world, this is the 'blood extractor': the US dollar strengthens, US Treasury yields soar, and funds are fleeing from risk assets like cryptocurrencies and US stocks, directly crashing the market.

There's another thing that everyone may not know: Tether has been quietly reducing the supply of USDT. According to statistics, there has been a reduction of 6.5 billion USDT in recent months. For the market, this is another blow. At the beginning of January, USDT was at a historical high of 187.3 billion USD, and by February 12, it had dropped to 185.6 billion USD. Tether has also burned 3.5 billion USDT on the Ethereum chain, one of the largest continuous burns in history.

USDT is the 'blood' of the crypto market; a reduction in supply means weakened buying power. With no one to take over, prices naturally cannot hold.

Additionally, with Hong Kong clearing USDT and funds leaving the cryptocurrency space, liquidity is directly tightened in two ways, making it difficult for the crypto market to rise.

Yesterday, under the double blow of CPI exceeding expectations and a contraction in USDT supply, the market directly broke through the 68000-72000 range, hitting a low of around 65700. The 'double test' mentioned yesterday has landed, and now the bears completely hold the initiative, and in the short term, it still has to grind downwards.

From the 4-hour chart, the rebound highs are getting lower each time, and the bulls' confidence has been completely shattered. The next high probability is to test the key support at 65000. If it cannot hold, the next target will be 63000.

Operational Advice:
$BTC 68500-69000 Light position to short, stop loss at 69300
$ETH 1990-2010 Light position to short, stop loss at 2025

For long positions, just focus around 65000; still, the same advice: watch more, act less, and save some money for the New Year🧨

February 11 Market Morning Read

$BTC Recently, the large coin has been oscillating in a narrow range between 68000-72000. The bullish and bearish forces have been subtly shifting, and a direction is about to be chosen soon.
I believe that from the 4-hour chart perspective, each rebound is weaker than the last, and each high is lower than the previous one, logically suggesting that a second test is imminent. ETH has been performing slightly better than the large coin overall, but it’s still just a matter of degree, both are in the same boat.

Even the famous counter-indicator brother, after nearly 300 liquidations, is not optimistic about the future market.

But brother is just too much of a “plague god”: when he goes long, it crashes, and when he goes short, it seems he’s about to be liquidated, haha, it’s as if the market makers are just targeting him.

The capital's Hua Zi has also been played by the market makers to the point of closing all leverage, escaping in a scramble!

So as ordinary people, we should just play spot trading honestly.
Buy more when it drops, sell when it rises, sticking to the principle of being a heartless man!

Market Operation Suggestions

$BTC Short at 69000-69600, stop loss at 71000

$ETH Short at 2040-2065, stop loss at 2090

In short, watch more and act less, opening contracts now has no cost-effectiveness, it’s just testing your patience!

$BTC Exchanges are crazy about RWA, the opportunities and challenges in the cryptocurrency world!\n\nLet me say something very realistic: now the leading exchanges are frantically listing real assets (RWA) like gold, silver, and U.S. stocks. This is not just about introducing a few new varieties; the entire cryptocurrency game has completely changed!\n\nWhat was the cryptocurrency world like before? It relied on storytelling and luck, with air coins, dog coins, and MEME coins flying everywhere. Anyone who dared to invest could potentially make a profit. But now it’s different; the industry is starting to take a legitimate route, becoming more compliant and institutionalized, focusing on serious projects and real value. Those messy and worthless coins are truly at the end of their good days.\n\nThe exchanges are doing this to bring large sums of traditional finance into the cryptocurrency space, moving trillion-dollar assets like U.S. stocks, gold, and bonds onto the blockchain, allowing institutions and ordinary people who don’t understand cryptocurrencies to dare to play. Previously, the cryptocurrency world was all about internal competition, where everyone was cutting each other's profits; the bubble was absurdly large. Now, with real assets backing it up, the cryptocurrency market has finally found its foundation, no longer a house of cards.\n\nThis approach has led to a direct polarization in the market.\n\nAll the money is rushing to hold RWA assets with real value like gold and U.S. stocks; no one is willing to touch worthless, unbacked, and unverified garbage tokens anymore. These altcoins will gradually see no buyers, no players, and without liquidity, they will ultimately drop to zero. In the future, only a very small number of useful and compliant altcoins will survive, while over 90% will be on a dead end.\n\nBitcoin, on the other hand, will become increasingly stable, firmly establishing its position as digital gold and becoming a core asset that institutions must hold. In the future, BTC will not experience the wild fluctuations it used to; it will generally move upwards with fluctuations, and the market will only be influenced by macro policies and institutional funds, having little correlation with small cap altcoins.\n\nThe future of the cryptocurrency world will only become more regulated, assets more real, and supervision more stringent. The era of becoming rich through speculation, cutting profits from others, and relying on air will be completely over.\n\nFinally, here’s a heartfelt piece of advice for everyone: \nDon’t cling to altcoins any longer; give up the fantasy sooner and hold onto Bitcoin and Ethereum, following the compliant RWA route for a steady path. This is the only way to survive and make money in 2026!\n\nWishing everyone a smooth and prosperous 2026!\n$BTC \n\n\n#RWA板块涨势强劲 #黄金白银反弹

February 9 Market Analysis

Let’s chat about the market in a straightforward manner, no nonsense!

BTC has dropped severely in the past few days, as everyone has seen, right? It fell to around $60,000 but finally stabilized for a moment, recently bouncing back to around $70,000, but don’t think this indicates a reversal or that it’s going back up; it’s just taking a breather after a heavy drop!

This past weekend, the trading volume has been particularly sluggish, with prices oscillating between $70,000 and $72,000, neither going up nor down. This indicates that the bulls have no confidence at all; those buying the dip are just looking to make a quick profit and run, and no one dares to hold long-term. To put it bluntly, they’re just taking a gamble and leaving.

Now let’s discuss the current macro environment, which is filled with bad news, so don’t be blindly optimistic:

1. Institutions are fleeing! Bitcoin spot ETFs have been pulling out money for three consecutive months, totaling over $4.8 billion, which is not a small amount. This indicates that big funds are not optimistic about the future market and are systematically withdrawing. Additionally, the company Strategy Inc., which holds a huge amount of Bitcoin, has seen its position's market value plummet due to the significant drop in Bitcoin, further eroding confidence. Previously, Bitcoin was touted as a “safe-haven asset,” but now it seems that’s just nonsense; no one believes it anymore.

2. The Federal Reserve is also not providing any relief! Everyone is guessing whether the Fed will cut interest rates in 2026. If the U.S. economy falters, there might be some easing, which could benefit risk assets like virtual currencies. However, what people are more worried about now is that a rebound in inflation could lead the Fed to raise interest rates, which would push Bitcoin down further. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that regulation may become stricter, which has also triggered a previous wave of short-term selling.

3. There’s also a blunder; a South Korean exchange had an employee error, inputting “Korean Won” as “Bitcoin,” mistakenly sending out Bitcoin worth $44 billion, which led to a brief market crash. This illustrates that risk control in the crypto industry is quite poor. We are already in a bear market with low liquidity; if one exchange makes a mistake, it can trigger a chain reaction and increase market volatility. Of course, let’s just treat this as a joke!

BTC Operation:

✅ Short-term: $71,000-$71,500, gradually reduce positions, testing short;

ETH Operation:

✅ Short-term: $2,050-$2,100, gradually reduce positions, testing short;

February 7 Market Analysis

$BTC has experienced a sharp drop of 30,000 in market value over the past few days, and there is hard support around the bottom of 59,800. The market has stabilized and currently rebounded to around 75,150, where there is initial resistance. A pullback is currently happening; typically, there is not much market fluctuation during the weekend. For those who have already bought at the bottom, short-term selling is advisable. For those with a long-term perspective, hold on tight. Small dips can be supplemented, while large dips should see larger supplements. The market is now close to the bottom!

Yesterday, the central bank and eight other departments jointly issued a document clearly stating that virtual currency-related activities are illegal financial activities. Issuing RMB-pegged stablecoins by domestic and foreign entities is strictly prohibited. However, I believe this is not the main reason for the drop; it was only released after everything had already fallen. Consider it a counterproductive piece of advice, a typical case of hindsight!

Operational Suggestions

$BTC 71500-70700 short

$ETH 2090-2075 short

The overall trend remains downward, so short-term selling is sufficient. If it goes up, the resistance level is at 73,880. Wait for it to drop before entering again, but I still suggest observing more and acting less; it's best not to act, as there isn't much market activity over the weekend!

The bad news has arrived!

PANews, February 6 - According to reports from Jinshi, the People's Bank of China and eight other departments issued a notice on further prevention and handling of risks related to virtual currencies. Among them, it was mentioned that strict supervision will be implemented for domestic entities conducting related businesses abroad, and without the lawful consent of relevant departments, domestic entities and their controlled overseas entities are not allowed to issue virtual currencies abroad. Domestic entities conducting real-world asset tokenization businesses in the form of foreign debts abroad, or conducting asset securitization or equity-like real-world asset tokenization businesses abroad based on domestic asset ownership, income rights, etc. (hereinafter collectively referred to as domestic rights) shall be strictly regulated in accordance with the principle of 'same business, same risk, same rules' by relevant departments such as the National Development and Reform Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in accordance with their responsibilities. Overseas subsidiaries and branches of domestic financial institutions providing real-world asset tokenization-related services abroad must operate prudently in accordance with the law, equip professional personnel and systems, effectively prevent business risks, strictly implement customer access, suitability management, anti-money laundering, and other requirements, and be included in the compliance and risk control management system of domestic financial institutions.

$BTC Early Morning Analysis

The night of surprises is finally over. The market dropped nearly 10,000 points overnight, with most of the sell-off coming from Coinbase. It can be concluded that Wall Street is engaging in unrestricted selling, targeting a few institutions I mentioned earlier, with precise encirclement and sniping. I underestimated the lower limit of Wall Street and made a wrong judgment, ignoring the impact of the recent pullback in the U.S. stock market. I thought 68,000 could hold at least for these two days, but it directly broke down to 62,000. This is no longer just a technical analysis issue; it's a hunt, an unrestricted hunt!

Operation Suggestions

$BTC 63500-64200 Short Buy Target 66,000 Stop Loss 63,000

$ETH 1890-1910 Short Buy Target 1,960 Stop Loss 1,880

This is not a suitable time to short, remember

$ASTER is still struggling to survive

$BTC The short-term market has held up, and if there is no deliberate sell-off, we can expect a rebound to around 71500.

February 5 Market Analysis

Brothers, the decline has been unbearable, Bitcoin $BTC is now struggling to stay above 80,000, many people have become so pessimistic that they are calling for 60,000, 50,000, 40,000, or even 30,000. Some are even shouting for a breakthrough below 15,000, insisting that a few institutions need to be sacrificed for this market to settle down. Up until now, there hasn't even been a decent rebound, and the market sentiment is extremely fearful. The number of liquidations across the entire network in the last 24 hours has exceeded 140,000, with liquidation amounts reaching 610 million USD, creating a typical vicious cycle of 'decline - liquidation - further decline'.

However, after monitoring the market for a few days, I found that things are not so simple. When everyone is bearish, will the Wall Street elites just go along with your wishes? Obviously not. My judgment is that the Bitcoin price will likely oscillate around 69,000–72,000, with 70,000 serving as both technical support and psychological support; this level will not be easily breached. What's even more ruthless is that there is a complete possibility of a pullback midway, breaking through 80,000–85,000, creating the illusion of 'bulls returning quickly' to entice retail investors to chase the rise, and then crashing down to start with 60,000, washing out all the trapped positions at the top of the mountain and the panic positions, before oscillating for a few months, finally choosing a direction. Remember: a rebound is not a bottom; a bottom does not rebound.

How to view political factors?

Right now in the U.S., the Trump administration has directly allocated the 200,000 bitcoins confiscated into the 'U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve', no longer auctioning them off, effectively permanently sealing them. In the long run, this is a positive sign, but in the short term, it makes the market more worried: does this mean that the country is hoarding coins, indicating even greater bearish news ahead? Furthermore, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March is as high as 90%, with expectations for rate cuts being delayed, the dollar strengthening, and risk assets generally under pressure, with volatile assets like Bitcoin being the first to feel the impact. Additionally, the White House has recently convened Coinbase, cryptocurrency industry organizations, and banking associations to discuss the regulation of stablecoin yields, indicating that the U.S. is 'integrating' the cryptocurrency market, which will bring uncertainty in the short term but is a good thing for cryptocurrency prices in the long term as it incorporates crypto into the formal financial system.

Operation Suggestions

$BTC

• 69,000–72,000 Long, betting on a small rebound, stop loss at 68,500

• 76,200–77,000 Short, support turning into pressure, stop loss at 77,500

$ETH

• 2,100–2,135 Long, betting on a small rebound, stop loss at 2,075

• 2,260–2,295 Short, support turning into pressure, stop loss at 2,315

Don’t be too heavy in positions, and don’t use too much leverage; in this kind of market, staying alive is the most important!

$ASTER Has this thing not reached 0.5u yet, it's exhausting.

February 4th Market Analysis

$BTC Brothers, I mentioned before that 80,000 is a strong resistance level. This rebound is quite fierce, right? 5,000 dollars, directly from 74,600 to 79,400. But we need to stay clear-headed; in the context of a significant drop from 98,000, this rebound isn't much at all. It's at most a breather; the overall trend is still bearish, and it will take a few institutional movements before we can start to see a reversal! Last night, there was another wave of selling, dropping to around 73,000, breaking the previous support level, and lowering the annual bottom line. Overall, the focus is on short positions, and although we can buy low, we must be cautious and protect our capital!

What’s the outlook?

In simple terms, there are two points:

1. Short-term focus on 80,000 USD

In the early morning, upon reaching this point, it turned around, indicating real pressure. However, according to Bitcoin's temperament, it might come back one more time, or even fake a breakout above 80,000 and 80,500. So for the aggressive friends, you can short with a light position here, targeting below 79,000, quick in and out, and set a stop loss.

2. The best position for a medium-term short is between 83,000-84,000

If it truly rebounds to this level, that would be a golden opportunity for a medium-term short from the heavens, and I will focus on positioning. Remember this phrase: rebounds are for better declines.

Why do I think there will be further declines?

The reasoning is simple: over the next four months, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates. Without liquidity, the market is like floating duckweed without roots, making it difficult to really take off. I anticipate this adjustment is not over; Bitcoin could see 50,000-60,000 in the medium term, and Ethereum ($ETH ) might even go to 1,500. When that time comes, don't hesitate; that will be the time to bend down and pick up gold, hold on for the next bull market, and it might change many people's fates.

What have we been doing recently?

It's simple, not following emotions, operational suggestions

BTC 72,500-73,400, buy the dip, run after a 1,000-point rebound

BTC 78,800-80,000, short, increase positions with floating profits, go in heavy

The market is always changing; remember, don't be greedy, don't panic, stick to the plan, the market is always right, the one who is wrong is you. When you are out in the world, you must stand straight when facing blows!
$BTC $ETH

#黄金白银反弹 #BTC走势分析

February 3 Market Analysis

Major Trend: First, let's clarify the stance; the major trend is still down. A large bearish candlestick two days ago directly smashed through the key support level of $75,000, marking the first time in nearly 10 months, a typical breakdown.

Today's Performance: After hitting a new low, some funds in the market attempted to catch the bottom, and the price was briefly pulled back above $78,000, representing a technical rebound after a sharp decline.

Global Factors:

1. U.S. Interest Rate Hike Expectations: The market generally expects the U.S. to continue raising interest rates, tightening global funds, which is unfavorable for all risk assets (including Bitcoin).

2. Gold Plummet: Yesterday, gold prices plummeted, indicating that even the 'traditional safe haven' is being sold off; market risk aversion is extremely high, and Bitcoin is hard to escape.

3. Middle East Situation: U.S.-Iran negotiations are ongoing, and tensions are high, but this time it hasn't brought safe-haven buying to Bitcoin.

Funding Pressure:

1. Institutions are Leaving: Large funds investing in Bitcoin have been withdrawing.

2. Leverage Explosion: Over the past two days, a large number of people borrowing money to trade cryptocurrencies have been forcibly liquidated, amplifying the panic of the decline.

3. Big Players Trapped: The price has now dropped below the 'average cost line' of several institutional Bitcoin big players, a dangerous signal for market sentiment.

In Simple Terms: Currently, the technical aspect is breaking down, the macro aspect is bearish, and the funding aspect is panicking. There may be a short-term rebound, but the overall trend of downward adjustment may not be over; caution is advised in operations.

Operation Suggestions: Focus on Shorting

$BTC 80000-80500 Short Stop Loss 81000

$ETH 2360-2390 Short Stop Loss 2410

February 2 Market Analysis

Overnight, the global market panicked completely, with cryptocurrencies, gold, and silver all plummeting. It seemed sudden, but the core issue was the hawkish statement from Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Walsh, making everyone feel that the money in the market would decrease. Various funds hurriedly escaped, which led to this collective drop.

$BTC The crypto market fell particularly hard, with Bitcoin directly breaking the key level of $75,000, and Ethereum also dropping to around $2,200. By the end of the day, the total liquidation across the network reached 500 million, with over 400,000 investors' positions being completely wiped out. The situation for gold and silver was even more ridiculous; having just set a historical high, they suddenly plummeted. Both markets weakened together, a direct reaction to the funding "tightening." Walsh is known for being hawkish, and his statement of "first tapering before cutting rates" shattered everyone’s illusions about loose monetary policies. Naturally, those asset bubbles built solely on funding were the first to burst.

Ultimately, the previous bull market in cryptocurrencies was merely a leveraged frenzy during easy money times; it looked hot but was actually very fragile. The surge in gold and silver was also a hedge against a weaker dollar. Walsh’s statement boosted the dollar, causing the market's risk appetite to cool instantly. Those who had leveraged in the crypto market were the first to falter, leading to a chain of sell-offs as big players and institutions rushed to hedge and exit. Gold and silver, losing their appeal due to the stronger dollar, saw profit-taking concentrated in a flash crash. Additionally, with the tense situation in the Middle East, their high volatility made them the first targets for capital withdrawal.

This is not the end of the market, but the conclusion of the era of easy wins. In the past, one could make money by blindly betting; that was a special situation of loose funding. Now that the liquidity bonus has faded, the market will return to rationality. Assets without actual value will eventually be eliminated. In the future, earning money will depend on vision and risk management. The upcoming hearing for Walsh is crucial; with the current trend unclear, the most reliable approach is to avoid full positions, control exposure, wait for signals, and maintain a risk floor to survive, in order to seize the next opportunity.

Now is suitable for short-term longs

Entry Points

$BTC 76000-76400 Stop Loss 75800

$ETH 2200-2230 Stop Loss 2180

February 1st BTC Market Analysis

$BTC Still the same saying, the turning point of the market often quietly breeds in the panic of the market. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision remains unchanged at 3.5-3.75%. Powell's speech leans hawkish, creating short-term negative pressure on BTC, causing the price to plunge sharply from around 84,300, briefly falling below the 80,000 mark, reaching a low of 75,700, and then rebounding to fluctuate around the 78,000-79,000 range, with an intraday decline of about 6%-7%.

From a technical perspective, the daily line has closed with a large bearish candle, continuously breaking through multiple support levels like 85,000, 82,000, and 80,000, forming a waterfall-like breakdown pattern. The RSI has dropped to the 28-30 oversold range, the MACD green bars continue to expand, and the lower Bollinger Band has been breached, indicating a clear bearish trend in the short term. However, after extreme overselling, a technical rebound may occur at any time; remember it is a small rebound, unless there is a significant volume to support it!

The intraday suggestion is to focus on short positions, with a secondary approach to long positions.

$BTC 81000-81500 Short, stop loss above 82,000.

$BTC 75,000-75,500 Light position to try a long, stop loss below 74,500.

$ETH 2490-2,550 Short, stop loss above 2,580.

$ETH 2,000-2,050 Light position to try a long, stop loss below 1,950.

Risk warning: Over the past 24 hours, more than 2.5 billion USD was liquidated across the network, market sentiment is extremely fearful, and volatility risk is very high. It is advised to operate with light positions, strictly set stop losses, and avoid high-leverage trading.