February 9 Market Analysis
Let’s chat about the market in a straightforward manner, no nonsense!
BTC has dropped severely in the past few days, as everyone has seen, right? It fell to around $60,000 but finally stabilized for a moment, recently bouncing back to around $70,000, but don’t think this indicates a reversal or that it’s going back up; it’s just taking a breather after a heavy drop!
This past weekend, the trading volume has been particularly sluggish, with prices oscillating between $70,000 and $72,000, neither going up nor down. This indicates that the bulls have no confidence at all; those buying the dip are just looking to make a quick profit and run, and no one dares to hold long-term. To put it bluntly, they’re just taking a gamble and leaving.
Now let’s discuss the current macro environment, which is filled with bad news, so don’t be blindly optimistic:
1. Institutions are fleeing! Bitcoin spot ETFs have been pulling out money for three consecutive months, totaling over $4.8 billion, which is not a small amount. This indicates that big funds are not optimistic about the future market and are systematically withdrawing. Additionally, the company Strategy Inc., which holds a huge amount of Bitcoin, has seen its position's market value plummet due to the significant drop in Bitcoin, further eroding confidence. Previously, Bitcoin was touted as a “safe-haven asset,” but now it seems that’s just nonsense; no one believes it anymore.
2. The Federal Reserve is also not providing any relief! Everyone is guessing whether the Fed will cut interest rates in 2026. If the U.S. economy falters, there might be some easing, which could benefit risk assets like virtual currencies. However, what people are more worried about now is that a rebound in inflation could lead the Fed to raise interest rates, which would push Bitcoin down further. Additionally, the U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated that regulation may become stricter, which has also triggered a previous wave of short-term selling.
3. There’s also a blunder; a South Korean exchange had an employee error, inputting “Korean Won” as “Bitcoin,” mistakenly sending out Bitcoin worth $44 billion, which led to a brief market crash. This illustrates that risk control in the crypto industry is quite poor. We are already in a bear market with low liquidity; if one exchange makes a mistake, it can trigger a chain reaction and increase market volatility. Of course, let’s just treat this as a joke!
BTC Operation:
✅ Short-term: $71,000-$71,500, gradually reduce positions, testing short;
ETH Operation:
✅ Short-term: $2,050-$2,100, gradually reduce positions, testing short;
