February 5 Market Analysis
Brothers, the decline has been unbearable, Bitcoin $BTC is now struggling to stay above 80,000, many people have become so pessimistic that they are calling for 60,000, 50,000, 40,000, or even 30,000. Some are even shouting for a breakthrough below 15,000, insisting that a few institutions need to be sacrificed for this market to settle down. Up until now, there hasn't even been a decent rebound, and the market sentiment is extremely fearful. The number of liquidations across the entire network in the last 24 hours has exceeded 140,000, with liquidation amounts reaching 610 million USD, creating a typical vicious cycle of 'decline - liquidation - further decline'.
However, after monitoring the market for a few days, I found that things are not so simple. When everyone is bearish, will the Wall Street elites just go along with your wishes? Obviously not. My judgment is that the Bitcoin price will likely oscillate around 69,000–72,000, with 70,000 serving as both technical support and psychological support; this level will not be easily breached. What's even more ruthless is that there is a complete possibility of a pullback midway, breaking through 80,000–85,000, creating the illusion of 'bulls returning quickly' to entice retail investors to chase the rise, and then crashing down to start with 60,000, washing out all the trapped positions at the top of the mountain and the panic positions, before oscillating for a few months, finally choosing a direction. Remember: a rebound is not a bottom; a bottom does not rebound.
How to view political factors?
Right now in the U.S., the Trump administration has directly allocated the 200,000 bitcoins confiscated into the 'U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve', no longer auctioning them off, effectively permanently sealing them. In the long run, this is a positive sign, but in the short term, it makes the market more worried: does this mean that the country is hoarding coins, indicating even greater bearish news ahead? Furthermore, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March is as high as 90%, with expectations for rate cuts being delayed, the dollar strengthening, and risk assets generally under pressure, with volatile assets like Bitcoin being the first to feel the impact. Additionally, the White House has recently convened Coinbase, cryptocurrency industry organizations, and banking associations to discuss the regulation of stablecoin yields, indicating that the U.S. is 'integrating' the cryptocurrency market, which will bring uncertainty in the short term but is a good thing for cryptocurrency prices in the long term as it incorporates crypto into the formal financial system.
Operation Suggestions
• 69,000–72,000 Long, betting on a small rebound, stop loss at 68,500
• 76,200–77,000 Short, support turning into pressure, stop loss at 77,500
• 2,100–2,135 Long, betting on a small rebound, stop loss at 2,075
• 2,260–2,295 Short, support turning into pressure, stop loss at 2,315
Don’t be too heavy in positions, and don’t use too much leverage; in this kind of market, staying alive is the most important!
