February 3 Market Analysis
Major Trend: First, let's clarify the stance; the major trend is still down. A large bearish candlestick two days ago directly smashed through the key support level of $75,000, marking the first time in nearly 10 months, a typical breakdown.
Today's Performance: After hitting a new low, some funds in the market attempted to catch the bottom, and the price was briefly pulled back above $78,000, representing a technical rebound after a sharp decline.
Global Factors:
1. U.S. Interest Rate Hike Expectations: The market generally expects the U.S. to continue raising interest rates, tightening global funds, which is unfavorable for all risk assets (including Bitcoin).
2. Gold Plummet: Yesterday, gold prices plummeted, indicating that even the 'traditional safe haven' is being sold off; market risk aversion is extremely high, and Bitcoin is hard to escape.
3. Middle East Situation: U.S.-Iran negotiations are ongoing, and tensions are high, but this time it hasn't brought safe-haven buying to Bitcoin.
Funding Pressure:
1. Institutions are Leaving: Large funds investing in Bitcoin have been withdrawing.
2. Leverage Explosion: Over the past two days, a large number of people borrowing money to trade cryptocurrencies have been forcibly liquidated, amplifying the panic of the decline.
3. Big Players Trapped: The price has now dropped below the 'average cost line' of several institutional Bitcoin big players, a dangerous signal for market sentiment.
In Simple Terms: Currently, the technical aspect is breaking down, the macro aspect is bearish, and the funding aspect is panicking. There may be a short-term rebound, but the overall trend of downward adjustment may not be over; caution is advised in operations.
Operation Suggestions: Focus on Shorting
$BTC 80000-80500 Short Stop Loss 81000
$ETH 2360-2390 Short Stop Loss 2410
