JD2 the Moon
Thị trường không chỉ có trắng và đen. Tìm kiếm sự thật nằm giữa các con số BTC & ETH. Chia sẻ góc nhìn khách quan, tĩnh lặng giữa những con sóng crypto. ✨
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Crypto Is Quietly Moving Closer to Traditional Finance
• Binance VSF & Franklin Templeton launched an off-exchange collateral program for institutional investors. This indicates a growing demand for using crypto as part of the traditional financial structure. Not for trading. But to serve as collateral.
• S&P Global stated that BTC is gradually being viewed as an asset that can be used as collateral. When a major credit rating organization mentions BTC in this way, the conversation is no longer about 'how much it costs.' It's about 'its role in the system.'
• S&P Global stated that BTC is gradually being viewed as an asset that can be used as collateral. When a major credit rating organization mentions BTC in this way, the conversation is no longer about 'how much it costs.' It's about 'its role in the system.'
The market structure is changing quietly.
• The tokenized goods market increased by more than 50% in less than 6 weeks, reaching nearly 6 billion USD. The cash flow is not loud, but it has structural characteristics. This is the area where organizations are experimenting with on-chain exposure to real-world assets (RWA).
• BTC ETF +166 million USD | ETH ETF +13.83 million USD. It's not a booming cash flow, but it's stable enough to show that positioning is returning after a period of strong volatility.
• Tom Lee's Bitmine bought an additional ~40,000 ETH. This move occurred during a weak market phase, not at the breakout time. Accumulation often happens in noise areas, not in excitement areas.
• BTC ETF +166 million USD | ETH ETF +13.83 million USD. It's not a booming cash flow, but it's stable enough to show that positioning is returning after a period of strong volatility.
• Tom Lee's Bitmine bought an additional ~40,000 ETH. This move occurred during a weak market phase, not at the breakout time. Accumulation often happens in noise areas, not in excitement areas.
When Liquidity Stops Running Away
• Wall Street continues to rise, but this time it’s not just a 'rise for the sake of rising'. The recovery comes from the tech sector – where the money usually flows back first when systemic risks cool off.
• Trump said the Dow Jones could hit 100,000 points by the end of his term. It sounds fantastical, but the message behind it is very clear: confidence in U.S. financial assets is being pumped back in, just as the market has gone through an extreme phase of fear.
• Trump said the Dow Jones could hit 100,000 points by the end of his term. It sounds fantastical, but the message behind it is very clear: confidence in U.S. financial assets is being pumped back in, just as the market has gone through an extreme phase of fear.
When everything feels broken, markets quietly reset
• Over the weekend, Dow Jones +1,100 points, hitting 50,000 for the first time – new ATH.
• Meanwhile, crypto remains in the red, sentiment is still heavy.
• Fear & Greed Index = 5 — the lowest fear level in 3 years.
The market is sending mixed signals.
• The flow of money hasn't disappeared. It just took a detour.
• ETF BTC +330M USD comes back just as sentiment hits bottom.
• ETH still facing net withdrawals — funds are being selective, not 'buying the whole market.'
• Meanwhile, crypto remains in the red, sentiment is still heavy.
• Fear & Greed Index = 5 — the lowest fear level in 3 years.
The market is sending mixed signals.
• The flow of money hasn't disappeared. It just took a detour.
• ETF BTC +330M USD comes back just as sentiment hits bottom.
• ETH still facing net withdrawals — funds are being selective, not 'buying the whole market.'
This red week doesn’t ask you 'how much do you know', but rather 'how long can you endure'
Last week, the market didn’t crash in one go. It bled slowly, persistently — and it’s this kind of bleed that has brought many people down.
• In just 24 hours, over 2.68 billion USD was liquidated. At one point, 572 million USD disappeared in just 60 minutes.
→ It’s not because someone is completely wrong, but because the risk was placed at the wrong time.
• The more interesting part lies in the on-chain data: Currently, only ~50.31% of the BTC supply is profitable (around ~$62,839).
• In just 24 hours, over 2.68 billion USD was liquidated. At one point, 572 million USD disappeared in just 60 minutes.
→ It’s not because someone is completely wrong, but because the risk was placed at the wrong time.
• The more interesting part lies in the on-chain data: Currently, only ~50.31% of the BTC supply is profitable (around ~$62,839).
When Red Days Are About Liquidity, Not Fear
• Every cycle has its days of 'red hot' markets, but not every red day is the same. The important thing is not how much the price decreases, but who is being forced to leave the market.
• At the present time, the data shows:
– Funding rate cools down.
– Open interest decreases.
– But spot selling does not explode.
→ This indicates that: leverage is being unwound, not that long-term holders are selling their positions.
• At the present time, the data shows:
– Funding rate cools down.
– Open interest decreases.
– But spot selling does not explode.
→ This indicates that: leverage is being unwound, not that long-term holders are selling their positions.
Where Real Money Is Moving Tonight
• US stocks continue to face pressure: Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all recently declined as major tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft fell into the red, contributing to the overall market decline.
• Gold & Silver recovered strongly after the recent correction — reflecting defensive capital flows returning after a 'risk-off' period. Today, gold rose over 6% and silver surged over 8% after a sharp drop last weekend.
• Gold & Silver recovered strongly after the recent correction — reflecting defensive capital flows returning after a 'risk-off' period. Today, gold rose over 6% and silver surged over 8% after a sharp drop last weekend.
Weekly Reset: After the crash — What is the money flow saying?
• Breaking news today:
– The spot BTC ETF recorded over $561M inflow → capital is being redirected to spot rather than derivatives.
– BitMine (Tom Lee) acquired an additional ~41,788 ETH even while facing a large ~$6.6B paper loss on their ETH holdings.
– MicroStrategy bought 855 BTC at ~ $87,974 each despite BTC being below their previous cost basis.
• These three moves resemble three large “hands” making long-term bets, not short-term reactions to price fluctuations.
– The spot BTC ETF recorded over $561M inflow → capital is being redirected to spot rather than derivatives.
– BitMine (Tom Lee) acquired an additional ~41,788 ETH even while facing a large ~$6.6B paper loss on their ETH holdings.
– MicroStrategy bought 855 BTC at ~ $87,974 each despite BTC being below their previous cost basis.
• These three moves resemble three large “hands” making long-term bets, not short-term reactions to price fluctuations.
When all assets are in the red, where is the money going?
• Gold drops sharply after a series of ATH.
• Crypto crashes quickly due to leverage liquidation.
• Stocks are all in the red.
→ The familiar question arises: 'Where is the money flowing to?'
• In many cases, the answer is not another asset, but to exit risk.
• Instances of all assets dropping together are usually not rotations.
→ This is de-risking: closing positions, reducing exposure, lowering leverage.
• When uncertainty increases (policy, interest rates, geopolitics), the market does not need to look for a 'new story' immediately.
• Crypto crashes quickly due to leverage liquidation.
• Stocks are all in the red.
→ The familiar question arises: 'Where is the money flowing to?'
• In many cases, the answer is not another asset, but to exit risk.
• Instances of all assets dropping together are usually not rotations.
→ This is de-risking: closing positions, reducing exposure, lowering leverage.
• When uncertainty increases (policy, interest rates, geopolitics), the market does not need to look for a 'new story' immediately.
Weekly Market Recap
• Gold & silver:
After a series of consecutive ATHs, both have adjusted very strongly in the last session of the week.
→ It is not a narrative of defensive errors, but rather a temporary profit-taking when interest rates remain high.
• Fed & interest rates:
Fed continues to maintain interest rates, USD has not weakened significantly.
→ Defensive assets are starting to lose strength compared to previous expectations.
• US Stocks:
S&P 500 is still hovering around 7,000 points – a historical high range.
After a series of consecutive ATHs, both have adjusted very strongly in the last session of the week.
→ It is not a narrative of defensive errors, but rather a temporary profit-taking when interest rates remain high.
• Fed & interest rates:
Fed continues to maintain interest rates, USD has not weakened significantly.
→ Defensive assets are starting to lose strength compared to previous expectations.
• US Stocks:
S&P 500 is still hovering around 7,000 points – a historical high range.
There is a rather paradoxical thing in the financial market:
• The easiest periods to make money are often missed, while the most uncomfortable periods force people to stay.
• When the market has a clear trend, decisions become easy. But when prices are sideways, narratives are noisy, and money hasn't chosen a side, most investors start to lose patience. They constantly change strategies, constantly change beliefs, and ultimately change their accounts.
In fact, the market does not test our ability to guess correctly as much as it tests our ability to endure uncertainty. Those who survive through unclear periods are often the ones who have enough capital — both financial and mental — when real opportunities arise.
Major cycles rarely begin with a sense of excitement. They often start when everything seems… slow, there is no compelling story, and very few people are patient enough to wait.
Long-term investing, at its deepest level, is not about finding the fastest-growing assets, but about learning how not to eliminate oneself from the game too early.
#DCA #BTC #GOLD
• The easiest periods to make money are often missed, while the most uncomfortable periods force people to stay.
• When the market has a clear trend, decisions become easy. But when prices are sideways, narratives are noisy, and money hasn't chosen a side, most investors start to lose patience. They constantly change strategies, constantly change beliefs, and ultimately change their accounts.
In fact, the market does not test our ability to guess correctly as much as it tests our ability to endure uncertainty. Those who survive through unclear periods are often the ones who have enough capital — both financial and mental — when real opportunities arise.
Major cycles rarely begin with a sense of excitement. They often start when everything seems… slow, there is no compelling story, and very few people are patient enough to wait.
Long-term investing, at its deepest level, is not about finding the fastest-growing assets, but about learning how not to eliminate oneself from the game too early.
#DCA #BTC #GOLD
Is Bitcoin a risk asset or a defensive asset?
Bitcoin is often labeled very inconsistently. Sometimes it moves with Nasdaq, other times it is called 'digital gold'.
The fact is: BTC has two natures at the same time, and its behavior depends on the macro context.
When does Bitcoin behave like a risk-on asset?
• Global liquidity is easing.
• USD is weakening.
• Real interest rates are decreasing.
• Equity is growing strongly.
During this period:
• BTC has a high correlation with Nasdaq.
• Capital inflow into spot + derivatives is increasing.
The fact is: BTC has two natures at the same time, and its behavior depends on the macro context.
When does Bitcoin behave like a risk-on asset?
• Global liquidity is easing.
• USD is weakening.
• Real interest rates are decreasing.
• Equity is growing strongly.
During this period:
• BTC has a high correlation with Nasdaq.
• Capital inflow into spot + derivatives is increasing.
When stocks slow down, gold rises, and the USD has not given way.
2026 is starting with a rather paradoxical setup:
• Equity: SPX is moving sideways within a narrow range — valuations are no longer cheap, investors are waiting for the Fed to confirm the interest rate curve.
• Gold: breakout of the old peak in 2025 — benefiting from geopolitical issues + hedging the portfolio + the narrative of 'insurance asset' returning.
• USD: DXY has not clearly slowed down — making risky assets lack momentum to accelerate.
Noteworthy points in cash flow for 2026:
• Risk-on has yet to see a new leading trend.
• Equity: SPX is moving sideways within a narrow range — valuations are no longer cheap, investors are waiting for the Fed to confirm the interest rate curve.
• Gold: breakout of the old peak in 2025 — benefiting from geopolitical issues + hedging the portfolio + the narrative of 'insurance asset' returning.
• USD: DXY has not clearly slowed down — making risky assets lack momentum to accelerate.
Noteworthy points in cash flow for 2026:
• Risk-on has yet to see a new leading trend.
AI x Crypto = ?
AI is beginning to use blockchain as infrastructure — not just a narrative.
2024–2025, 'AI x Crypto' is marketing hype. Many pitch decks talk about synergy, but there are few real applications.
2026 reversal: less talk, but AI becomes a real user of the chain.
Agent uses blockchain to:
• pay fees,
• store state,
• query decentralized data,
• run contracts,
• self-custody of assets.
No drama, no tokens, no sentiment — only the criteria of the 'machine': fees, throughput, latency, data, uptime.
2024–2025, 'AI x Crypto' is marketing hype. Many pitch decks talk about synergy, but there are few real applications.
2026 reversal: less talk, but AI becomes a real user of the chain.
Agent uses blockchain to:
• pay fees,
• store state,
• query decentralized data,
• run contracts,
• self-custody of assets.
No drama, no tokens, no sentiment — only the criteria of the 'machine': fees, throughput, latency, data, uptime.
Perspective on “why 2026 is more unpredictable than 2025?”
2025 ends with the status “high expectations – uncertain reality” in most financial markets. Moving into 2026, there are 3 points that make the market more unpredictable:
• It's no longer a simple story about interest rates.
• Whether to cut or not is no longer the sole focus — the Fed is balancing growth, employment, and inflation.
• Money flow is not moving in one direction.
• Gold rises, stocks are flat, crypto fluctuates within a range, and bonds await signals. This means there is no “leader” of the new cycle yet.
• It's no longer a simple story about interest rates.
• Whether to cut or not is no longer the sole focus — the Fed is balancing growth, employment, and inflation.
• Money flow is not moving in one direction.
• Gold rises, stocks are flat, crypto fluctuates within a range, and bonds await signals. This means there is no “leader” of the new cycle yet.
Geo/Commodity rotation
2026 begins with a focus on commodities, not crypto.
• Institutional money at the beginning of the year is prioritizing light defense.
• Gold maintains its position as an 'insurance asset' in the context of geopolitical tensions.
• Silver benefits from the industrial + solar narrative.
• Oil is not rising sharply but is more stable compared to 2025.
• USD has not shown clear signs of slowing down, making it difficult for risk assets to gain momentum.
Main narrative:
Money flows before entering growth → often go through safety + defense first.
• Institutional money at the beginning of the year is prioritizing light defense.
• Gold maintains its position as an 'insurance asset' in the context of geopolitical tensions.
• Silver benefits from the industrial + solar narrative.
• Oil is not rising sharply but is more stable compared to 2025.
• USD has not shown clear signs of slowing down, making it difficult for risk assets to gain momentum.
Main narrative:
Money flows before entering growth → often go through safety + defense first.
Sideways is the poorest meta content of crypto
Sideways in the right way:
not enough decrease to be pessimistic,
not enough increase to be happy,
and especially... not enough drama to have content.
In sideways, volume is asleep, sentiment is asleep, and traders open the chart just to close it again. Analysts are 'temporarily observing', holders are 'temporarily silent', while KOLs turn to tell life stories.
The whole market becomes a 'temporary' conference.
The funniest thing is that everyone knows that sideways is to gather energy, but no one knows whether it's to go up or down. Because sideways promises nothing, just says 'wait for me'.
not enough decrease to be pessimistic,
not enough increase to be happy,
and especially... not enough drama to have content.
In sideways, volume is asleep, sentiment is asleep, and traders open the chart just to close it again. Analysts are 'temporarily observing', holders are 'temporarily silent', while KOLs turn to tell life stories.
The whole market becomes a 'temporary' conference.
The funniest thing is that everyone knows that sideways is to gather energy, but no one knows whether it's to go up or down. Because sideways promises nothing, just says 'wait for me'.
GEOPOLITICS AND THE RISE OF "DIGITAL GOLD"
A summary of global financial market fluctuations influenced by the latest geopolitical movements:
1. Immediate market reaction (Short-term)
Heightened geopolitical tensions along with strong statements from the Trump administration regarding new trade agreements have led to a short-term portfolio restructuring:
Traditional safe-haven assets: Gold and Silver have recorded impressive growth as capital seeks safety amid uncertainties.
1. Immediate market reaction (Short-term)
Heightened geopolitical tensions along with strong statements from the Trump administration regarding new trade agreements have led to a short-term portfolio restructuring:
Traditional safe-haven assets: Gold and Silver have recorded impressive growth as capital seeks safety amid uncertainties.
THE CLARITY ACT BILL – WILL CRYPTO "LEVEL UP" OR LOSE ITS ESSENCE?
Hello everyone!
I want to dive deep into a topic that's causing a storm in the U.S.: the CLARITY Act. This isn't just dry legislation—it directly impacts our wallets and future.
I'll summarize the 3 key points to help you understand easily:
1. "Level up" thanks to clear rules
Previously, the crypto industry was always in the "gray area." Now, the CLARITY Act is like a golden ticket. When the law is clear, legal risks decrease, and major players like banks and pension funds will feel confident investing.
I want to dive deep into a topic that's causing a storm in the U.S.: the CLARITY Act. This isn't just dry legislation—it directly impacts our wallets and future.
I'll summarize the 3 key points to help you understand easily:
1. "Level up" thanks to clear rules
Previously, the crypto industry was always in the "gray area." Now, the CLARITY Act is like a golden ticket. When the law is clear, legal risks decrease, and major players like banks and pension funds will feel confident investing.
☕ ON-CHAIN NEWS 07/01: TRACKING THE FOOTPRINTS OF "SHARKS" – ACCUMULATING OR SELLING?
Hello everyone, this morning let's quickly analyze on-chain data to see what the "big players" are doing with their enormous funds:
1. Sharks quietly "pulling out" from the exchange
Data from CryptoQuant shows a significant increase in net Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges over the past 24 hours.
Meaning: When big whales withdraw BTC to cold wallets, selling pressure decreases significantly. They choose to hold (hold) instead of taking profits around $93k.
1. Sharks quietly "pulling out" from the exchange
Data from CryptoQuant shows a significant increase in net Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges over the past 24 hours.
Meaning: When big whales withdraw BTC to cold wallets, selling pressure decreases significantly. They choose to hold (hold) instead of taking profits around $93k.
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