Last week, the market didn’t crash in one go. It bled slowly, persistently — and it’s this kind of bleed that has brought many people down.
• In just 24 hours, over 2.68 billion USD was liquidated. At one point, 572 million USD disappeared in just 60 minutes.
→ It’s not because someone is completely wrong, but because the risk was placed at the wrong time.
• The more interesting part lies in the on-chain data: Currently, only ~50.31% of the BTC supply is profitable (around ~$62,839).
• History shows:
– When this number is above 95%, the market is often too hot.
– When it falls deep below 50%, it is often a strong capitulation phase (2019, 2022).
→ The current level is right in the uncomfortable middle ground: not enough excitement to be happy, but not enough despair to let go.
• This is the type of market:
– No reward for guessing the bottom.
– Does not give the feeling of 'getting in means winning'.
– And especially, very harsh on those who put all their decisions into one purchase.
• Most of those swept away this week:
– not wrong about long-term belief.
– only wrong in placing all that trust in a short moment.
• In a highly volatile market like crypto, the biggest advantage is not being smarter, but not being forced to leave the game when volatility occurs.
• And that is why, in such phases, slow, steady, and seemingly boring strategies… are what help people stay long enough for the odds to start in their favor.
In conclusion:
This week's market does not teach how to get rich quickly. It simply reminds one very practical thing: in a long game, spreading risk over time is more important than being right at a point.
