Bitcoin is often labeled very inconsistently. Sometimes it moves with Nasdaq, other times it is called 'digital gold'.
The fact is: BTC has two natures at the same time, and its behavior depends on the macro context.
When does Bitcoin behave like a risk-on asset?
• Global liquidity is easing.
• USD is weakening.
• Real interest rates are decreasing.
• Equity is growing strongly.
During this period:
• BTC has a high correlation with Nasdaq.
• Capital inflow into spot + derivatives is increasing.
• The narrative revolves around growth, adoption, ETF, innovation.
👉 BTC is currently a high-beta asset.
When does Bitcoin behave like a hedge?
• Systemic risk increases.
• Public debt is ballooning.
• Geopolitical tensions.
• Trust in fiat currency is weakening.
In this context:
• BTC separates from equity.
• Correlation with gold increases.
• Spot accumulation is more stable than futures.
👉 BTC is viewed as a non-national defensive asset.
What does the data show?
• The correlation between BTC and Nasdaq fluctuates significantly cyclically, not fixed.
• In liquidity stress phases, BTC often declines first — but recovers earlier than equity.
• The proportion of long-term holdings increases during prolonged instability.
=> Bitcoin does not choose a role. The role selection cycle for it.
The issue in 2026 is not clearly risk-on, nor is it fully risk-off.
• Equity is flat.
• Gold is strong.
• USD has not weakened.
• Liquidity has not opened the big valve yet.
→ BTC is trapped between two identities.
At this stage, do you view Bitcoin more as a risk-on asset or a long-term hedge?
#BTC #GoldOnTheRise #FedHoldsRates
