2026 is starting with a rather paradoxical setup:
• Equity: SPX is moving sideways within a narrow range — valuations are no longer cheap, investors are waiting for the Fed to confirm the interest rate curve.
• Gold: breakout of the old peak in 2025 — benefiting from geopolitical issues + hedging the portfolio + the narrative of 'insurance asset' returning.
• USD: DXY has not clearly slowed down — making risky assets lack momentum to accelerate.
Noteworthy points in cash flow for 2026:
• Risk-on has yet to see a new leading trend.
• Risk-off (gold + USD) is not too extreme.
• Retail is not in a hurry; institutions are 'waiting for more data'.
Data worth watching (Q1/2026):
• SPX–Gold correlation: weakened.
• USD–Gold correlation: slight reversal.
• Implied volatility for both equity and FX is low.
=> The market is not pricing in a crisis, but is also not pricing in strong growth.
Normally:
→ Gold up = risk-off
→ Strong USD = tightening
→ Equity sideways = waiting for the Fed
But currently, there is no one leading the story, only light defensive cash flow to 'buy time'.
Lessons for retail:
When the market does not pay for guessing
→ Observing correlation & cash flow is always more effective.
In your opinion: who will lead the new cycle, Equity, Gold, or Crypto?
