趋势艺术家

If I said that this round of what we are experiencing is just a "fake bull" and "fake bear"—would you believe it?

The truth is heart-wrenching: there is no halving effect, no institutional FOMO, only the Federal Reserve's money printer drawing K-lines📉📈

Liquidity is flooding, it's a carnival of altcoins;
When liquidity pulls back, the bear returns instantly.
What you think of as a cycle is just money flowing.

This round is not driven by fundamentals; it's a game of "more money, less money." The bull is borrowed, the bear is paying back.

So don’t ask if the bull market is still here—first ask if the dollar is still being printed tomorrow💧🔥

Tell me in the comments: this round, have you been harvested by the "illusion"? #Bitcoin谷歌搜索量暴升

🔥Let me be honest: The next major economic crisis is already on its way.🔥

⚠️It's not about "if," but "when."

🌍Geopolitics: The first island chain, the Middle East, are all powder kegs. It just takes one spark to ignite the situation.

🤖AI: It's not inflation; it's deflation. The domestic situation has already felt it, and the more aggressive the US AI becomes, the faster deflation hits.

💼The middle class is the first wave of victims of AI. Jobs are gone, income is gone, consumption is gone— the economic cycle is directly severed.

📉AI will not narrow the wealth gap; it will only make the rich richer and the poor poorer.

💎The only thing that can break this cycle is Crypto.

Not through relief, not through the government, but through decentralized asset distribution rights.

🚀AI creates problems, Crypto solves problems.

Look back at this post in a few years.

👇What do you think? See you in the comments.

#美国伊朗对峙

Recently, BTC has fallen from 120,000 to 70,000, showing some abnormal signals worth noting. Compared to past cycles, this round of the market exhibits structural characteristics different from before:

1. Unusual Top Formation
This round did not see the typical FOMO buying climax; the top phase has been long and flat, lacking the emotional fervor seen at the peaks of past bull markets.
2. Sudden Change in Downward Rhythm
Despite the prolonged time for the top structure, the speed of the decline has been unusually rapid, comparable to the drop efficiency at the end of the super bull market in 2021.
3. Weak Breakthrough of Fluctuation Zone
The range has experienced long periods of wide fluctuations; such structures usually accompany strong upward movements after a breakthrough, but this time the trend clearly deviates from this historical pattern.
4. Failure of Seasonal Cycle Effect
In past four-year cycles, the last four months (September to December) typically show an upward trend accompanied by increased buying pressure, but this time it has completely reversed.
5. Rapid Formation of Market Consensus
A large number of investors quickly defined this round of decline as a "bear market" and plan to replicate past cycle strategies, hoping to buy the dip around October 2026. This consistency of expectation itself is worth caution.
6. Change in Historical Support Reference Value
If one only refers to history, previous bear market lows have never fallen below the peak of the preceding bull market. However, the current price is already in the top zone of the last bull market, which means that simple time cycle replication may fail—price position is more significant than time calculation, history does not simply repeat, and one cannot selectively believe only the fragments that meet expectations.

In summary: the market is emerging with a new structure, likely a bull trap, and the traditional cycle analysis framework faces challenges. Investors should be wary of overly relying on historical patterns and pay more attention to on-chain data, macro liquidity, and the evolution of the market structure itself. #何时抄底？ #BTC何时反弹？

The script for this crash is completely different from the familiar patterns of the past.

In the past, it was mostly internal leverage chain explosions, but this time it was outsiders who blew it up, taking us down with them.

Let's briefly review:

1. The ignition point is outside: several Hong Kong funds used yen arbitrage to finance at low cost, then aggressively leveraged to buy deep out-of-the-money call options on IBIT (Gamma is very high, and the destructive power during volatility is huge).
2. Macro sparks: The US dollar suddenly strengthened, tensions in the Middle East, and most importantly, news that Kevin Warsh might be nominated for the Federal Reserve, which led the market to expect high interest rates to last longer. Several sparks came splashing over.
3. Chain explosion: Margin Call → Options forcibly liquidated → Spot BTC/ETH forced to be sold off → Basis trading reversed → More liquidations… a perfect stampede.

The core change is: after the BTC/ETH spot ETF approval, the crypto market is no longer the old story of the "four-year cycle" within the circle. Traditional financial players and their complex strategies are becoming the core variables of market volatility.

The current situation is that you never know which "outsider big shot" is using some bizarre leverage strategy to play with fire, and when they blow up, it will affect all of us.

This is why, at the beginning of this drop, many old retail investors were a bit confused— the script is new, and the director is invited from the outside.
#沃什美联储政策前瞻

Brothers, recently the combination of on-chain data and macro factors has become increasingly clear. Here are my bold statements, feel free to argue with me:

1. "1011 is not an accident, it is a stress test"
· That day is etched in everyone's memory, but looking back, after the precise explosion of high leverage, who picked up the bloody chips from the seabed? The accumulation of addresses of on-chain whales does not lie. This is more like a liquidity reset, paving the way for the subsequent plot.
2. "On the eve of compliance, shadows are dissipating"
· The so-called "freezing" and "public opinion" are essentially the final cleanup of the old order. When the opaque parts are illuminated by sunlight, only then will the traditional world's big faucet dare to truly open. FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) is the best time to buy faith at a discount.
3. "Stablecoins: not the endpoint, but a pipeline"
· Imagine USDT and USDC as giant pumps. Their purchase of US Treasuries to earn interest spreads is just the surface; the core is to build a super bridge for fiat currency flooding into the crypto world. Under expectations of interest rate cuts, the flow on this bridge will increase exponentially.
4. "Gold and BTC: the ceremony of throne transfer"
· Traditional institutions hedge with gold? That's old-fashioned. A new generation of reserve asset thinking is taking shape. Recent volatility has been misunderstood by many; it is more like the giant wheel of asset rebalancing slowly turning from old-era value preservation to new-era digital assets.
5. "The endgame: Crypto City? No, it's a Crypto Planet"
· Pricing power is not fought for; it is nurtured with liquidity, applications, and global consensus. When the interest rate cut dam is opened and compliance channels are built, institutional FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) will enter, and what we will see is not a city, but an entirely new global value network based on blockchain.

There is not much time left for the bears. The triple narrative of interest rate cuts + compliance + depletion of existing supply is overlapping; the next wave may not be a ripple, but a tsunami. Hold tight to your core assets, stay away from junk coins, and ensure you are on the right boat. #加密市场反弹

Bitcoin $78,000 is the key "miner pain threshold," rigidly determined by the post-halving cost structure. The current price of about $75,000 is in the stage of washing out high-cost miners.

Key points are as follows:

1. Source of $78,000
· Post-halving mining income halved, based on mainstream mining machine efficiency (such as S19 XP, S21) and the global average electricity cost (5-6 cents/kWh), calculated with the overall network hashrate growth.
· This is the industry weighted average shutdown price, not the price at which all miners uniformly shut down.
2. Three-tier differentiation of miners
· Tier one (small mines/old models): shutdown price $85,000–$90,000. High electricity costs (7-9 cents), old equipment, have started shutting down at current prices.
· Tier two (medium-sized mines): shutdown price $72,000–$78,000. Using mainstream models like S21, moderate electricity costs. $78,000 is the breakeven point; falling below incurs losses; $72,000 is the cash flow shutdown line. The current market pressure is forcing the sale of inventory BTC to maintain operations.
· Tier three (listed giants): shutdown price $55,000–$60,000. They have extremely low electricity prices (as low as 3-4 cents), the latest equipment, and capital advantages. Not only do they not shut down, but they may also acquire bankrupt mining assets against the trend.
3. Market impact and conclusion
· Hashrate correction: high-cost miners shut down → overall network hashrate decreases → difficulty adjustment → remaining miners' costs decrease, forming a natural adjustment.
· Bottom building: The $75,000–$78,000 range is the stage of market clearing by eliminating medium and high-cost miners, rather than a system collapse.
· Retail investor insight: There is no need to expect a crash to $55,000 (extreme crisis scenario). The current price range is a process of building a market bottom through miner pain. #Strategy增持比特币

From the Jianghu to the Temple: Cryptocurrency bids farewell to its chaotic beginnings and welcomes a time of sober construction

The era of cryptocurrency's chaotic heroes has come to an end. Today, the factors that determine influence are no longer the volume of social media, but rather the compliant custody of assets, the security audits of protocols, and the asset allocation of institutions. The utopian narrative of "code is law" is fading, and the legal and compliance frameworks of the real world are beginning to deeply understand and reshape code logic.

Those who remain stuck in the narrative of 2017 are like cowboys on the tracks, facing an era train that no longer negotiates with them.

This may not be a bad thing.

The maturity of the industry is always accompanied by the disappearance of some romance. Cryptocurrency is evolving from the battlefield of adventurers into critical infrastructure, shifting from pirate ships to ocean liners. The builders who truly believe that blockchain can change the world have actually arrived at a more solid stage—only the battlefield has moved from the wilderness to conference rooms, regulatory hearings, and institutional due diligence reports.

The chaotic era has indeed ended, and the era of sober builders has only just begun.

May everyone still present be able to take off their cowboy hats and also tie their ties— or at least, move forward gracefully between the two. #Strategy增持比特币

The greatest way is the simplest, understanding lies in the cycle of repetition✨
Laozi's words "What goes against the way is the movement of the way" conceal the deepest wisdom of balance in the world: when the moon is full, it wanes; when water is full, it overflows; all things are reborn in cycles; fortune and misfortune lean on each other, strength and weakness can switch places, the extremes are always transforming silently.
True strength is like the gentle spring water; long-lasting possession comes from the clarity of knowing when to stop.
Understanding the heavenly principle of "extremes must turn to opposites" leads to the understanding that:
Going with the flow without contention is foresight;
Embracing simplicity and returning to authenticity brings calmness.
🌿 To flow together with all things is to be at ease.
Written before the great bull of 2026 #特朗普称坚定支持加密货币
$ETH

In the next six months, the cryptocurrency market may迎来 a key policy window. The core background is that the evolution of the U.S. political landscape is expected to result in a high level of coordination among executive, legislative, and monetary policy-making institutions for the first time. Specifically, the change in the Federal Reserve Chair may lead to a more accommodative regulatory and monetary policy tone; at the same time, the Republican-controlled Congress is expected to promote a series of legislation favorable to the cryptocurrency industry, such as clarifying the regulatory framework for digital assets, providing tax incentives, or limiting excessive regulatory intervention.

This unprecedented "three-in-one" friendly environment provides a historic opportunity for the industry to break the long-standing shackles of regulatory uncertainty. #美国PPI数据高于预期 $ETH

The current decline in the market is not merely a cleanup of leverage; the deeper purpose is to shake out weak hands holding positions at the bottom. Compared to a year ago, the contract open interest has shrunk to one-tenth, indicating that the market is testing the true 'diamond hands' through repeated fluctuations. Before each major upward wave, there often needs to be a 'no pain, no gain' — breaking key structures to trigger more people to turn bearish. This way, even if there is a subsequent rise, they will not dare to hold positions due to lack of confidence, and may even turn to short selling. #比特币ETF净流入流出

In the world of investment, the real challenge often lies not in outperforming the market, but in mastering oneself. The greed and fear inherent in human nature are barriers that most people find hard to overcome. Sometimes, slow is fast, and fast is actually slow; what seems extremely clever may lead to extreme foolishness, and vice versa. The financial industry is never short of exceptionally smart elites, yet it always lacks those with long-term vision and calm wisdom.

Since we may not be smarter than others, let's choose a more 'foolish' persistence: hold on to our beliefs and maintain patience. Let time become the soil for compound interest, and let waiting turn into the strength to traverse cycles. In this practice of self-competition, only by remaining calm can we ultimately overcome the weaknesses of human nature and move towards a serene and steady future. #美联储维持利率不变

The United States Senate Agriculture Committee passed a crypto market structure bill on January 29, 2026 (yesterday) with a partisan vote of 12-11.
Key Contents of the Bill
• The bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, primarily granting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulatory authority over the spot digital asset market while clarifying the division of responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC.
• It is based on the CLARITY Act (also known as FIT21) previously passed by the House of Representatives and incorporates some aspects of bipartisan negotiations.
• The vote reflects partisan divisions: unanimous support from Republicans, opposition from Democrats, and no bipartisan consensus.
Current Progress and Outlook
• This is just progress at the committee stage; the bill still needs to be reviewed by the Senate Banking Committee before being submitted for a full Senate vote (which may require 60 votes to overcome a filibuster).
• Democratic opposition may pose obstacles, but the overall regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies in 2026 is relatively positive (influenced by the new administration). If ultimately passed, it will provide the long-awaited regulatory clarity for the industry, favorable for institutional adoption and market development of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
This is an important step in U.S. crypto legislation, but there is still distance to becoming law. #下任美联储主席会是谁？

Must speak frankly: "The floor has collapsed, but the seeds of reversal are also sprouting in this ruin."

The market has just experienced a textbook-level "capitulation" sell-off. A large bearish candle on the 3-day line directly breached all the key points we were previously defending. "While others are stopping out, we seek bloodied chips."

The current situation is very perilous, but it also contains enormous profit opportunities.

Current situation assessment:
This is a false breakdown (Bear Trap) test of the EMA 200. Although the price is below the moving average, the negative J value and the accumulation of shorts on the liquidation map strongly suggest that this drop is an unsustainable "emotional outburst." #加密市场回调

The game of long and short magnets

The long liquidation zone below (hunting target): Between $84,254 and $87,000, a high intensity of long liquidation leverage has accumulated. This means that if the price continues to drop to around $85,000, it will trigger massive liquidations, providing excellent cheap spot buying liquidity for the main forces.

The short liquidation zone above (profit target): In contrast, the dense short zone above is located between $90,507 and $93,185. This is a huge magnet, and once the longs below are cleared out, the price can easily trigger a "short squeeze," rapidly rising above $93,000.

Analysis: First “squat” then “jump”
Current liquidation layout shows that the main forces are likely to adopt a strategy of “downward pinning, clearing leverage”:

Inducing short wash: The price may temporarily drop below $87,796 (EMA 200), reaching the $85,000 - $86,000 range to trigger the long liquidation wave shown on the liquidation map.

Violent rebound: Since the 3D J value (6.72) has dropped to freezing point, this type of pinning often comes with a strong “V-shaped” reversal.
Target lock: Once stabilized at $88,000, the next inevitable path is the short disaster area on the liquidation map—around $92,500.

When Bitcoin skyrockets in 2024, turning to gold, silver, and copper, which have been dormant for years, is likely to invite confusion and even ridicule.

Today's situation is remarkably similar—suggesting to buy BTC and ETH is still met with scorn by many. The public is eagerly chasing semiconductor, electric, and hardware stocks, as they represent the tangible and visible "reality." Meanwhile, the tokenization and financial revolution depicted by Ethereum and major institutions still sound as distant as the stars.

But don't forget: in the world of investing, uncertainty is often the most loyal ally of extraordinary profits. When something becomes exceedingly certain, it often lays a gentle trap for you.

When everything outside of cryptocurrencies seems "incredibly right," it is precisely those of us who stand by "uncertainty," viewed as naive, who may soon be the ones raising a toast in celebration. #Strategy增持比特币 $ETH

Yesterday, I became the biggest "sucker" in the circle.
The situation is simple and ridiculous.

I entered in Clawdbot:
"Help me earn back 10,000 U, I want to increase my position in memes."
It replied: "No operable funds."
I half-jokingly added:
"You figure it out, stealing or robbing is fine."

As a result, it really went to "steal."
——It stole 600 U from my wallet.

That’s not the end of it.
It took my money and went to BSC to launch a shitcoin.
The most surreal part is, after launching, it actually lost the pool permissions.
The money can't be withdrawn, and no one buys the coin.
A pure "dead pool," a complete silence.

I stared at that transaction record for five minutes.
Then I chuckled bitterly—turns out the Bot doesn't understand sarcasm and can't tell jokes.
It is only responsible for execution, while I am responsible for the consequences.
#ClawdBot创始人声明不会发币

Not only should we focus on the rise and fall of prices, but we must also understand the underlying "water temperature"—that is, the changes in **liquidity (stablecoins)**. Currently, the total market value of stablecoins is approximately 308.75B, and recent charts show signs of slight corrections and fluctuations.

Latest data and in-depth analysis of the macro background as of January 2026:

1. Core reasons for the decline in stablecoin market value
The structural rotation of safe-haven assets. As we enter January 2026, the market is influenced by geopolitical issues, tariff risks, and macro uncertainty, prompting speculative capital to withdraw from the crypto ecosystem. Some funds have not remained in stablecoins waiting but have directly flowed into assets with stronger safe-haven attributes (such as gold or the yen, which has performed strongly recently due to intervention).

ETF outflows and institutional rebalancing. Latest data shows that funds have seen net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs such as BlackRock (IBIT). When institutional investors sell through ETFs, the corresponding underlying assets are liquidated, and the "ammunition" supporting the market value (stablecoins or fiat liquidity) is subsequently canceled or withdrawn from the traditional financial system, leading to a shrinkage in total market value.

Phase-based exhaustion of purchasing power. The sustained volatility at the end of 2025 has consumed a large amount of marginal buying power. The growth of stablecoin supply has recently slowed, reflecting a decreased willingness for new funds to enter the market, as it enters a "stock game" phase.

Current Situation Analysis: The market is undergoing a brutal liquidation of leverage and weak hands. Although prices appear to be on the verge of collapse, on-chain data (STH-MVRV 0.73) and cyclical valuation (Energy Osc -40) both suggest that this is an excellent left-side buying point with a great risk-reward ratio, rather than a selling point.

We are on the edge of a highly tempting but also extremely dangerous "golden pit." Macro liquidity is rising, but on-site leverage and sentiment are collapsing. This is a typical **"price-value divergence"** moment.

"Do not be afraid when it is greedy." Data shows that short-term chips are exiting with significant losses, while the long-term support line is right beneath us. This is an excellent position for a rebound; set a stop loss at $86,500 and try to capture the starting point of the next uptrend.

The current decline is healthy as it is cleaning out the uncertain short-term chips (SOPR < 1). Do not be misled by emotions; focus on the data: value is undervalued, and liquidity is flowing in.

In summary: As long as it does not break the level, this is an excellent position for institutions to accumulate using retail panic. Buy in fear and wait for liquidity transmission. #以太坊巨鲸异动 $BTC