1. Core Data Interpretation
The bottom-fishing signal is extremely strong
The AHR999 hoarding index is currently 0.49. In the cryptocurrency circle, 0.45-1.2 is the dollar-cost averaging range, and below 0.45 is the bottom-fishing range. 0.49 means that the current price has entered a highly cost-effective "golden pit" relative to long-term costs.
RSI (22 days) is 36.18: This indicates that the market has entered the oversold zone, and the short-term selling pressure has been fully released.
The number of long-term holders (14.25M) is still growing: This means that the chips are transferring from retail investors (short-term holders) to institutions/large holders (long-term holders), which is a typical characteristic of a mid-bull market washout.
Technical pressure is huge
BTC, viewed from the 3-day line, is currently experiencing a rapid pullback.
The price has already broken some short-term moving averages and is seeking strong support below.
Guidance from the liquidation map
We can see that the current decline is accompanied by a large number of long liquidations (red area). Through this sharp drop, the market has forcibly liquidated a large number of highly leveraged longs, cleaning up the market's 'floating capital.'
In the $82,000-$80,000 range, liquidation intensity still exists, indicating that bears may still have one last wave of downward momentum to 'needle' for liquidity.
II. Analysis of the main reasons for the sharp decline
ETF net outflow (key turning point): Data shows that ETF has experienced consecutive net outflows for 4 days. The main driving force behind the previous rise of BTC was the buying of the US spot ETF. Once institutional funds turn around or remain on the sidelines, the market immediately loses incremental capital support and falls into a game of existing stocks.
Chain liquidations caused by excessive leverage: The market accumulated too much long leverage when approaching $90,000-$10,000. When the price broke key psychological levels (like $88,000), it triggered automatic liquidations, leading to the phenomenon of 'longs killing longs.'
Profit-taking: Many short-term holders (showing a declining share to 28.66%) who held from $60,000 or even lower chose to take profits at integer levels, resulting in a temporary oversupply.
III. Will it continue to fall? (Market forecast)
Short-term conclusion: Fluctuation builds a bottom, and another 'false breakdown' cannot be ruled out.
Support below: Strong support is near $80,000 - $81,000. If this level holds with volume, then this is the bottom of the current pullback.
Upward resistance: Need to stabilize above $85,700 to confirm the reversal signal.
Operation advice:
From the AHR999 (0.49), the current price is an excellent entry point for medium to long-term investors.
Avoid high leverage. Current volatility is extreme, and the liquidation map shows that the market makers tend to harvest in both directions; spot positioning is much safer than contracts.
Summary: This is a typical healthy pullback in the later stage of a bull market. Although short-term ETF outflows have led to low sentiment, the on-chain fundamentals (increasing long-term holdings, low coin accumulation indicators) remain very strong. Don't be intimidated by short-term candlesticks; in the face of the AHR999 indicator at 0.49, buying in batches is often the consensus among top traders.
