Recently, BTC has fallen from 120,000 to 70,000, showing some abnormal signals worth noting. Compared to past cycles, this round of the market exhibits structural characteristics different from before:

1. Unusual Top Formation

This round did not see the typical FOMO buying climax; the top phase has been long and flat, lacking the emotional fervor seen at the peaks of past bull markets.

2. Sudden Change in Downward Rhythm

Despite the prolonged time for the top structure, the speed of the decline has been unusually rapid, comparable to the drop efficiency at the end of the super bull market in 2021.

3. Weak Breakthrough of Fluctuation Zone

The range has experienced long periods of wide fluctuations; such structures usually accompany strong upward movements after a breakthrough, but this time the trend clearly deviates from this historical pattern.

4. Failure of Seasonal Cycle Effect

In past four-year cycles, the last four months (September to December) typically show an upward trend accompanied by increased buying pressure, but this time it has completely reversed.

5. Rapid Formation of Market Consensus

A large number of investors quickly defined this round of decline as a "bear market" and plan to replicate past cycle strategies, hoping to buy the dip around October 2026. This consistency of expectation itself is worth caution.

6. Change in Historical Support Reference Value

If one only refers to history, previous bear market lows have never fallen below the peak of the preceding bull market. However, the current price is already in the top zone of the last bull market, which means that simple time cycle replication may fail—price position is more significant than time calculation, history does not simply repeat, and one cannot selectively believe only the fragments that meet expectations.

In summary: the market is emerging with a new structure, likely a bull trap, and the traditional cycle analysis framework faces challenges. Investors should be wary of overly relying on historical patterns and pay more attention to on-chain data, macro liquidity, and the evolution of the market structure itself. #何时抄底？ #BTC何时反弹？