Bitcoin $78,000 is the key "miner pain threshold," rigidly determined by the post-halving cost structure. The current price of about $75,000 is in the stage of washing out high-cost miners.

Key points are as follows:

1. Source of $78,000

· Post-halving mining income halved, based on mainstream mining machine efficiency (such as S19 XP, S21) and the global average electricity cost (5-6 cents/kWh), calculated with the overall network hashrate growth.

· This is the industry weighted average shutdown price, not the price at which all miners uniformly shut down.

2. Three-tier differentiation of miners

· Tier one (small mines/old models): shutdown price $85,000–$90,000. High electricity costs (7-9 cents), old equipment, have started shutting down at current prices.

· Tier two (medium-sized mines): shutdown price $72,000–$78,000. Using mainstream models like S21, moderate electricity costs. $78,000 is the breakeven point; falling below incurs losses; $72,000 is the cash flow shutdown line. The current market pressure is forcing the sale of inventory BTC to maintain operations.

· Tier three (listed giants): shutdown price $55,000–$60,000. They have extremely low electricity prices (as low as 3-4 cents), the latest equipment, and capital advantages. Not only do they not shut down, but they may also acquire bankrupt mining assets against the trend.

3. Market impact and conclusion

· Hashrate correction: high-cost miners shut down → overall network hashrate decreases → difficulty adjustment → remaining miners' costs decrease, forming a natural adjustment.

· Bottom building: The $75,000–$78,000 range is the stage of market clearing by eliminating medium and high-cost miners, rather than a system collapse.

· Retail investor insight: There is no need to expect a crash to $55,000 (extreme crisis scenario). The current price range is a process of building a market bottom through miner pain. #Strategy增持比特币