币海行舟

The altcoin season is late but never absent

Brothers, has someone recently told you that "the altcoin season won't come"? Seriously, every cycle someone says this, and every time they end up getting slapped in the face.

Today, I want to talk to you about some data. There is an indicator called the OTHERS/BTC ratio, which simply means the exchange rate of altcoins relative to Bitcoin. This ratio has now returned to a historical bottom support level, almost identical to the positions before the launches in 2017 and 2021.

In 2017, it took off from this position, and the overall altcoin market rose by 423%.

In 2021, it took off from this position, and the overall altcoin market rose by 503%.

Just think about it, every round that bounces from this bottom has a larger increase than the last. By this rhythm, the potential for this round is about 700%. I'm not saying every altcoin can rise sevenfold, but the overall sector's elasticity is there.

Let's look at another signal: the golden cross of the altcoin market cap ratio is forming, aiming to reclaim 25% of the market share. How long has the altcoins been suppressed by BTC? Four or five years, right? BTC rose from 20,000 to 100,000, but most altcoins are still lying on the ground. This extreme concentration of funds has historically led to a retaliatory rebound for altcoins every time.

The script for sector rotation is already in motion: first BTC rises alone, then ETH follows, followed by large-cap altcoins, and finally, the full altcoin season. Now that BTC's phase is basically over, it's time for the next act, no need for me to say more.

Some analysts say the characteristic of this altcoin season is that it's a "mini altcoin season" coming in waves, unlike before when everything exploded all at once. But ultimately, they will all enter a parabolic rise stage, just with a more twisted process.

Having experienced 312, 519, and the FTX collapse, what major storms haven't we seen? Every time during the most desperate moments, someone shouts "this time is different," and what happens? History doesn't simply repeat but it rhymes. The cycle will never be absent; it will only be late.

Now, there is only one thing to do: choose good targets, hold onto spot positions, and avoid leverage. When the altcoin season arrives, those who benefit from the main upward wave will always be those who withstand at the bottom. Be patient and wait for the flowers to bloom; don’t fall before dawn.

How much altcoin position have you laid out now? Are there any sectors you are particularly optimistic about? Let’s chat in the comments section?

#山寨季 #OTHERS #板块轮动 #周期规律 #现货为王

From 126,000 to 66,000, is the winter about to end?
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Brothers, these past two months have seen BTC drop from 126,000 to a low of 60,000, and now it's around 70,000. The feeling of a halving is back. Many people in the group are starting to doubt life, saying the bull market is over. But to be honest, those who have experienced 3/12, 5/19, and FTX know that such crashes are common.
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Those analysts on Wall Street have recently been discussing one thing: the crypto winter generally lasts for 13 months, and this cycle may be nearing its end. Think about it, from last year's peak to now, the timing almost matches up. The most pessimistic prediction from Stifel is a drop to 38,000, but they also acknowledge that Q1 2026 might be the turning point. Interestingly, Standard Chartered's year-end target is still 150,000 USD.
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Let me tell you, the winter has never ended in excitement; it quietly passes in fatigue. The market is in this state now—no one is making calls, posts about liquidation are flooding in, and everywhere you see "never again." Those who understand know that such times often present opportunities.
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To be honest, I’m as steady as an old dog in this wave. Why? Because cash is king. Those who leveraged and chased highs and lows have long been liquidated. Short-term trading is just giving away money; shorting in a bull market is certain death. History doesn’t simply repeat, but it does rhyme—there's always a major rally following each significant drop; what came after 3/12? And what followed 5/19? The cycle will never be absent.
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Buying at the bottom and riding the major wave, waiting four to five years for a violent surge, is it worth it? I think it is. Be patient, what’s the rush?
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Are you adding to your position or observing? Let's discuss your thoughts in the comments
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The above is just my personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Investing carries risks; proceed with caution. DYOR.
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#BTC #加密寒冬 #抄底时机 #现货持有 #牛市信仰

Big prince of the crypto world, I really regret not seeing your post earlier. I heard you don’t trade contracts. Today I looked through my photo album and saw the previous contract trades, which have already been liquidated. It reminded me of those sad memories. If I had bought spot back then, at least I would still be in the game, but now I've lost everything.

Thanks to the big prince of the currency circle, after listening to the prince's live broadcast and reading his posts, I slowly understood the core of the currency circle. There will always be people cursing at the market, and there will always be people cheering. However, those who curse and cheer will ultimately face liquidation and zero because market fluctuations are inevitable and unpredictable. All we can do is buy at relatively low points and sell when the crowd is roaring. This process is never easy, but the outcome will be good. Because trading always goes against human nature, this process itself is inherently uncomfortable, and short-term traders immerse themselves in the long and short of today and tomorrow; their emotions are easily amplified. Previously, I was trading short-term contracts and constantly operating long and short, leading to more and more liquidations and increasing losses. I lost to contract leverage before, but this time I will hold steady in the spot market.

$BTC The main upward trend, once it starts, is sufficient in four months. If you haven't been wiped out in this ultimate shakeout, you are qualified to enjoy the subsequent main upward trend. Remember, do not play short-term, do not use leverage, steadily hold onto the bottom chips, and ride the wave of the main upward trend.

Before Dawn

Many people later find that,
they did not fall in the crash,
but rather fell in the "I've already endured, but don't want to wait any longer."

What truly drives people to despair is not
that prices hit new lows,
but that it neither falls nor rises,
as if forgotten by the world.

You watch other assets soar to new highs,
then look at what you've been focused on for years,
and a thought begins to emerge in your mind:
"Did I make the wrong choice?"

So many people choose to leave,
not because they are bearish,
but because they no longer want to waste time.

But the cruelest part of the market is here—
the main uptrend often starts when "no one wants to watch it,"
and not when everyone is ready.

That's why it keeps repeating over and over:
cutting off before dawn,
and then anywhere,
you can never get that segment again.

I'm not advising you to do anything now,
just want to say one thing:
if one day it really starts to move,
the market won't wait for you to think it through slowly.

The difficult part is waiting. Don't be affected by the noise; any rash movement can ruin everything. Not every opportunity needs to be seized; capturing one big opportunity is enough. Market trends are not seen but awaited. Be patient; the rise of a counterfeit master is at least tenfold.
Why do retail investors get cut? They look lower when it’s low, and higher when it’s high, not knowing where to buy and where to sell, flowing with the tide. For instance, if told to go east, they go east; if told to go west, they go west. The back-and-forth of longs and shorts is meant to make you act, and they profit from your rash movements.

The prince of the cryptocurrency world is undoubtedly a KOL in cyclical spot trading. Whenever the market is in total panic, shouting bearish sentiments and proclaiming a deep bear market, he stands up to express his views. In June, when he called for bottoming Ethereum, if I remember correctly, the comments section was filled with people shouting 800, questioning if they were dreaming with various bearish comments. I often listen to the prince's live broadcasts; his understanding of trends and cycles is definitely above 90% of the market! The bottom chips are even more precious in the current market situation.

$BTC has been fluctuating in this position for almost two years, a new bottom is basically formed, at most it may consolidate for another month or two, nobody knows, but right now cryptocurrency is at a golden bottom, one should desperately be bullish, don't end up chasing in when it rises and mess up the whole action.

Precious metals are accelerating towards a peak, and cryptocurrencies are about to surge.

Thanks to the big prince of the crypto world. I didn't understand the core of this market before and had many liquidations while playing short-term contracts. Since listening to the prince's live streams and posts, I have slowly understood the logic of this market. Don't touch short-term contracts. Why do the vast majority of people like short-term contracts? Why are there so many KOLs in the market flipping long and short all day? To make big money in this market, you can only follow the trend and the cycles. The black swan event on 10.11 was not predicted by anyone. All contracts were exposed, and all top traders went to zero again, giving another blow to short-term contract players. Spot trading survived. Surviving is the most difficult and also the most important thing in the market!

This wave $BTC has basically bottomed out, the monthly K-line is now three consecutive bearish candles, and the six weekly K-lines have been consolidated. There are a few days left for the monthly and yearly K-lines to emerge; to turn green, it needs to reach 90,000 and 94,000. Continuing to consolidate would be better to release the risk of future increases. Gold is expected to form a double top, and if it comes down, it will be very violent, while risk assets like cryptocurrencies are suppressed and not rising. Now looking at it, basically everyone is saying that the bear market is coming, so it probably won't happen, or it could be that the short bear market has already completed a few months.
Now altcoins basically want to recover 1011, which are three to four times, and going up could easily lead to dozens of times, carrying super leverage. In the next few months, do not use leverage; steadily hold a wave of major uptrends, this wave can be quite profitable. Choose the right coins, lower expectations to compound 4*4*2=32, as long as you can seize two opportunities, getting ten times is very easy, and lastly, be patient and wait for a big drop, it's easy to go in and double your investment. Be patient; it will rise underneath, regardless of which specific day, just stay calm.

$BTC There are not many instances above the three consecutive bearish months, Q1 may see the third peak emerge, and the latest by May, clear out and exit. The line of $ETH is expected to form a 4-year W bottom, with the right bottom still supported by a complex head and shoulders bottom. The weekly chart shows that the head and shoulders bottom is very obvious, around -47%. Technically, one can easily see fifteen thousand.
I still remind you that even if it is indeed the bottom, do not use leverage, do not trade short, do not act rashly, do not short, steadily hold onto this opportunity. Grabbing three opportunities is enough; rise from the bottom to eat five times, then look for another chance to eat three times, select two good coins, and follow the rhythm correctly. After exiting, wait for opportunities like a crocodile, wait for a significant drop before going in to eat two times, a steady happiness. The risk of wanting to eat dozens or hundreds of times with a single coin is still relatively high, although it seems that now, as the bottom rises, any chunk can be ten or dozens of times, it’s still safer to hold good chips when no one wants to buy. Look for direction, choose good coins, follow the rhythm, don’t eat full, and steadily finish this big opportunity.

The underground shantytown has started to stir, and market sentiment comes in waves. At this stage, four types of zero-sum players are most likely to appear: those who go leveraged during large fluctuations and end up at zero, those who get washed out in short-term trades and end up at zero, those who fail to hold their positions at the bottom and chase highs, and those who refuse to sell at the peak and end up trapped at zero.

Those who can truly stabilize the situation are the ones who do not leverage, do not engage in chaotic short-term trades, and steadily hold their positions in bottom spot assets. When the market is about to rise, it is not necessary to randomly buy a dozen or twenty coins; selecting three coins with confidence over the next three months is sufficient. 5*3*2=30, getting the direction right is stronger than anything else.

The market keeps changing, but the steadier the mindset, the better one can benefit from the main upward trend. Hold on to your bottom assets, and patience is your greatest leverage. $ETH

To put it simply, many people sell at the bottom not because of the market, but because they are scared by those around them who shout about a crash every day. Those people do not do their own research and only spread panic, urging others to run at the slightest fluctuation. As a result, others sell at the lowest point, and they just walk away. This kind of voice that only affects emotions is best to block as early as possible for risk management. #加密市场回调

$ETH If this wave stabilizes and goes up, the head and shoulders pattern that has been forming for over two years looks great. First, we will look at 18,000, and continue to observe. In the coming months, we must seize the opportunity #加密市场观察

To be honest, this drop gives me one feeling: intentional shakeout.

The pace is too fast, the strength too fierce, the turning point too sudden — it doesn't feel like a natural pullback, but more like someone stepping on the market and pushing it down to clear out all the floating positions above in an instant.
You can clearly feel: the sentiment shifts from greed to panic in a split second, that kind of feeling of "must kill until you doubt your life to stop" is all too familiar.

The crypto world has done this before and will not be the last time.
Every time it’s the same plot — first shake, then stabilize, then pull up.
A real bull market is always pushed up from countless times of "indestructible chips".
$BTC #加密市场观察

Space for time, the market will come down quickly #加密市场观察